Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) has maintained a close but consistent lead with critics’ wins this season and earned a Spirit Award nomination this week as well as a win from the National Board of Review. She moves closer and closer to the top spot.
The three Netflix contenders that are still in the top 5 (Amanda Seyfried, Mank; Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman; Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy) are there by sheer will and grit, I think. We know the streamer is going to perform better than it ever has on Oscar nomination morning but I do wonder if voters, in the back of their minds, won’t want to see that much dominance by a one studio or streamer in single category.
That opens the door for Dominique Fishback (Judas and the Black Messiah) and Helena Zengel (News of the World), the only representatives from the major studios that could upset. Fishback is rising, Zengel is largely running in place. She’ll probably need co-star Tom Hanks to get in Best Actor to help assure her place (and even that isn’t any real assurance). Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) could still Kathy Bates her way in so I’m keeping her in the top 10 for now but newcomer and Spirit Awards nominees Talia Ryder (Never Rarely Sometimes Always) or Alexis Chikaeze (Miss Juneteenth) could enter the race at any moment.
I know everyone will be banging on my door about Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) still being at #6 but as great as her performance is and no matter how many critics’ awards she wins, I find it hard to see the Academy voting for her. Even if she hits SAG and the Golden Globes there’s a crudeness to the humor in Borat that voters have turned their nose up at before (not to mention comedic performances altogether), screenplay nomination for the first film notwithstanding.
These are the last predictions before the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations come out (February 3 and 4, respectively) and those will definitely impact this and all acting races moving forward (which will be reflected in next week’s Frontrunner Friday).
Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions Supporting Actress for January.
Green – moves up; Red – moves down; Blue – new entry this month
1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)
2. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)
3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
5. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
6. Maria Bakalova – Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios)
7. Dominique Fishback – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
8. Helena Zengel – News of the World (Universal Pictures)
9. Saoirse Ronan – Ammonite (Neon)
10. Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian (STX Entertainment)
Other Contenders: Candice Bergen – Let Them All Talk (HBO Max), Alexis Chikaeze – Miss Juneteenth (Vertical Entertainment), Toni Collette – I’m Thinking of Ending Things (Netflix), Olivia Cooke – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios), Priyanka Chopra Jones – The White Tiger (Netflix), Lesley Manville – Let Him Go (Focus Features), Talia Ryder – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features), Charlene Swankie – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures), Marisa Tomei – The King of Staten Island (Universal Pictures)