2022 Oscar Predictions: ANIMATED FEATURE, DOCUMENTARY FEATURE, INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM (February)

Despite Flee making Oscar history by being nominated in all three of these categories, it’s not likely to win any of them. Fierce competition from films with nominations elsewhere or positioned as overwhelming frontrunners, the nominations will likely end up being the film’s reward.

Encanto sort of snuck up here after winning the Golden Globe but then blew up when the film’s soundtrack hit #1 on the Billboard charts and the song, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno,” did as well (it’s still there now). With an Original Song nomination (but not for “Bruno,” for “Dos Oruguitas”) and one for Original Score, it pushes itself to the top.

Summer of Soul achieved its toughest obstacle, getting nominated. The archival footage doc detailing Harlem Cultural Festival which celebrated African American music and culture, and promoted Black pride and unity over a six-week period in 1969 was the overwhelming critics’ favorite and those two things had been more than enough for the doc branch to snub a film. But it’s here now and will be the most seen film of the bunch (it’s currently available to stream on Hulu) and with the entire membership able to vote, nothing is going to stop it.

Drive My Car put the pedal to the metal and grabbed Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay nominations on top of its International Feature Film nod, putting it in the pole position here. It’s still a pretty competitive category with The Hand of God‘s precursor popularity and accessibility on Netflix and The Worst Person in the World sneaking into Original Screenplay. While DMC should be able to take this it might be closer than it seems.

Precursor Watch: Cinema Eye Honors are March 1, Independent Documentary Association is March 4, Annie Awards are March 12, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA are March 13. Oscar winner voting is March 17-22.

Here are my 2022 Oscar winner predictions in Animated Feature, Documentary Feature and International Feature Film for February.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Encanto (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer

2. Luca (Walt Disney/Pixar) – GG, CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren

3. The Mitchells vs the Machines (Netflix) – CCA, Annie, BAFTA, PGA
Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht

4. Flee (NEON) – GG, CCA, Annie (Indie), EFA, BAFTA
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

5. Raya and the Last Dragon (Walt Disney) – GG, CCA, Annie, PGA
Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Summer of Soul (Searchlight Pictures/Hulu) – CEH, CCA, IDA, PGA, BAFTA
Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein

2. Flee (NEON) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, EFA, PGA, BAFTA
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie

3. Ascension (MTV Documentary Films) – CEH, CCA, DOC NYC, Gotham, IDA, PGA 
Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell

4. Attica (Showtime) – CCA
Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry

5. Writing with Fire (Music Box Films) – IDA, PGA
Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Drive My Car (Japan) – GG, CCA, BAFTA
2. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) – BAFTA
3. The Hand of God (Italy) – EFA, GG, CCA, BAFTA
4. Flee (Denmark) – CCA
5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)