2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (October)

Not much to fuss with this month in the top 5, with Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) all still looking very good to earn their first-ever Oscar nominations, Diego Calva (Babylon), officially being campaigned in lead after a bit of a kerfuffle on Paramount Pictures’ FYC page launch this morning that initially listed him in supporting and Brad Pitt in lead. That said, I’m probably underestimating Bill Nighy. But then, Sony Pictures Classics has Hugh Jackman (The Son) as the most likely to fill the previous winner/nominee slot that this category has stuck with since its infancy.

But it’s not just Jackman who could contend for that spot (not that it’s a given, but still). Tom Hanks could return with A Man Called Otto, coming out in December, possibly Adam Driver in White Noise, Christian Bale could surprise in The Pale Blue Eye, Tom Cruise is creeping up with Top Gun: Maverick but it’s the reigning Best Actor champion, Will Smith, that could bring it with Emancipation. Apple officially announced the film will have a 2022 release (December 9), making it and him a contender this season. How will has 10-year Academy ban for slapping Oscars host live on stage at the last Academy Awards impact his chances? Hard to say, but he definitely can’t be discounted. In fact, I think he’s a serious threat to upset for spot. Call it a backlash to the backlash of the slaptermath.

The Gotham Awards nominations came in this week, and in the non-gendered lead category they nominated just three men out of 10 spots: Fraser, Paul Mescal for Aftersun and Colin Farrell…for After Yang. While a deserved nomination for Farrell, with The Banshees of Inisherin being limited to the group’s international category only, this feels like the five-person nominating committee really wanted Farrell in here no matter what and this was the way to do it.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Actor for October.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale (A24)
2. Austin Butler – Elvis (Warner Bros)
3. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Hugh Jackman – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
5. Diego Calva – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)

6. Will Smith – Emancipation (Apple Original Films) ↑
7. Bill Nighy – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
8. Daniel Giménez Cacho – Bardo, or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓
9. Paul Mescal – Aftersun (A24) ↑
10. Tom Hanks – A Man Called Otto (Sony Pictures) ↑
11. Park Hae-il – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↓
12. Daniel Craig – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ↓
13. Jeremy Pope – The Inspection (A24)
14. Adam Sandler – Hustle (Netflix) ♦
15. Song Kang-ho – Broker (NEON) ↓
16. Adam Driver – White Noise (Netflix)
17. Christian Bale – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix) ↑
18. Gabriel LaBelle – The Fabelmans (Universal Studios) ↓
19. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑
20. Jim Parsons – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Timothée Chalamet – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Harris Dickinson – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↓
Colin Farrell – After Yang (A24) ♦
Ralph Fiennes – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
Ethan Hawke – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
Jonathan Majors – Devotion (Sony Pictures) ♦
Ewan McGregor – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)

Photo: Jonathan Hession, courtesy of Searchlight Pictures