2024 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (December)

The six nomination slots is really doing a number this year, isn’t it? Hedging those bets, making sure your lineup is as close to an Oscar lineup as possible with an heir to spare.

Six actors have landed both Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations: Bradley Cooper in Maestro, Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer, Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers, Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon, Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction and Colman Domingo in Rustin. Murphy and Giamatti are running away with critics’ wins and both in strong films that will/should do well elsewhere. While Giamatti has been famously snubbed here before, for another Alexander Payne film no less, would they do it again? His Spirit Awards miss was interesting though, something to ponder. Cooper as a multi-hyphenate and under all that makeup is a voter’s dream. DiCaprio and Wright could be the wild cards here in terms of getting in or being locked out. While a DiCaprio snub would be rather huge, the focus of the film and the energy behind its campaign has largely been on Lily Gladstone. Wright is a never-been-nominated actor who’s won a Tony and an Emmy and has a ‘due’ feeling for a nomination. His film ended the fall festival season with a handful of audience awards, including Toronto’s People’s Choice, but hasn’t really made a huge splash yet. Modest showings at GG and CCA (vs DiCaprio’s Killers, naturally) but maybe not quite the big Oscar player it seemed it was going to play out to be. All of that is to say that DiCaprio and Wright’s spots (but really, they aren’t their spots) are up for grabs and it’s the next two names that will be fighting for them. And that’s a problem.

Andrew Scott (Gotham, Spirit Award, BIFA and Globe-nominated for All of Us Strangers) and Domingo could each – or both – find themselves in a fantastic and sad place in Oscar history with a nomination. in 95 years, only one openly gay actor has been nominated for Best Actor playing a gay role at the time of their nomination – Ian McKellen in 1998’s Gods and Monsters, playing legendary director James Whale. Think about that for a minute. Then think about how many performances of LGBTQ characters, real and fictional, have seen the actors playing them be nominated and win. Too many to count. As openly gay men playing gay roles (one fictional, one real), there is a lot at stake in terms of history for both of these performances by actors who have had awards success elsewhere (Scott on the stage and some television nominations, Domingo is an Emmy winner) and both also in their first ever lead roles in major motion pictures. But where is the groundswell for that? Why isn’t that drum being beaten louder, or at all? A glib answer is ‘there are better performances’ and one of subjective privilege. Both Scott and Domingo have received ‘career-best’ notices this year but don’t satisfy a name-checking quality that others might have. Scott has benefitted a bit by being able to heavily promote his film post-SAG strike this and last month (it opens this weekend) but Domingo, whose film opened and hit Netflix already, missed out on most promo and he can warm a room like few can. Get him in a circle with Academy voters and he’s as viable a contender as anyone. Neither is out by any means but if the wind is going to shift it needs to shift soon.

The Golden Globes awards ceremony will be held on Sunday, January 7, 2024 with Critics Choice the week after, on January 14. The Screen Actors Guild will reveal their nominations on January 10 and the 30th SAG Awards will be held on February 24. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Best Actor for October 2023.

1. Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
2. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG
3. Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
4. Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
5. Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – CCA, GG
6. Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) – GG
7. Colman Domingo – Rustin (Netflix) – CCA, GG
8. Barry Keoghan – Saltburn (Amazon MGM Studios) – GG
9. Christian Friedel – The Zone of Interest (A24)
10. Zac Efron – The Iron Claw (A24)

Next up: Nicolas Cage – Dream Scenario (A24) – GG, Adam Driver – Ferrari (NEON), Anthony Hopkins – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics), Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), David Strathairn – A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics), Kôji Yakusho – Perfect Days (NEON), Teo Yoo – Past Lives (A24)

Other contenders:

• Jay Baruchel – BlackBerry (IFC Films)
• Matt Damon – Air (Amazon Studios) – GG
• Eugenio Derbez – Radical (Miercoles Entertainment)
• Alden Ehrenreich – Fair Play (Netflix)
• Gael García Bernal – Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
• Kelvin Harrison Jr. – Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
• Benoît Magimel – The Taste of Things (IFC Films)
• Mads Mikkelsen – The Promised Land (Magnolia Pictures)
• Josh O’Connor – La Chimera (NEON)