2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (May)

Margot Robbie is hitting a Hollywood stride like few others right now. With hits like Suicide Squad and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and a Oscar nominations for I, Tonya and Bombshell, Robbie has been the most sought after actress in town with potential blockbusters and awards material lined up the rest of the decade. This year she’ll lead two films, David O. Russell’s Amsterdam and Damien Chazelle’s Babylon, with the latter being her Best Actress play.

In the film, set in the roaring 1920s of the birth of Hollywood itself, Robbie plays a Clara Bow-like character who lives the high life of a successful actress in the raucous and debaucherous early days as she struggles to transition from silent films to talkies. Word is it’s a pretty big movie star performance and one that mirrors Robbie’s own trajectory from sex symbol to serious actress and merging the two rather than having to decide on one or the other. Robbie is at the point in her career, like a Jennifer Lawrence or an Emma Stone, where the Academy is ready to embrace her. Plus, it’s probably a great time to reward her before Hollywood burns her out, and the audience, over the next few years.

Veteran actress Michelle Yeoh (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Crazy Rich Asians) holds a position that no one else on my list does; she’s the only top contender whose film and performance have already been seen. And not just seen, A24’s Everything Everywhere All at Once is a massive hit and just became the highest grossing film in the Oscar-winning studio’s history. Yeoh came close to an Oscar nomination once, with CTHD, and earned a BAFTA nod for it. There was chatter about a potential supporting nomination for Crazy Rich Asians that didn’t transpire, but should have. The praise and goodwill towards Yeoh in EEAAO has been so overwhelming that it’s hard to think she won’t be able to ride through the upcoming season with that goodwill intact. A24 has a ton of films this year, some with proven Oscar contenders like winner Jennifer Lawrence (in Red, White and Water) and four-time nominee Michelle Williams (in Showing Up, premiering at Cannes this week) that could chip away at Yeoh’s status but A24 knows what they have in her and in the film and if they stick with her it will pay off.

Since her Best Actress win for 2018’s The Favourite, her first-ever nomination, Olivia Colman has been nominated two more times, for 2020’s The Father (in supporting) and 2021’s The Lost Daughter (in lead). It’s probably safe to say had she had a 2019 film with Oscar prospects she’d have gotten in then, too. As it is, Colman almost seems to be entering a Judi Dench period; in the sense that her first Oscar attention came later in her career but once it started it just keeps going, earning nomination after nomination. This year (maybe) Colman has Empire of Light, the new film from Sam Mendes. I say maybe because the Searchlight Pictures film that co-stars Colin Firth and Micheal Ward, is actually still filming. That puts the film’s post-production period dangerously close to festival season and I feel like the studio would give this a healthy fall festival run. If that’s the case then this easily moves to 2023 where she’ll also have a supporting role in Wonka, with Timothée Chalamet playing the titular candy maker. Searchlight has several films set for fall release, including the new Yorgos Lanthimos film Poor Things, starring Colman’s co-star and Oscar winner herself, Emma Stone. Logic says that Stone would be the studio’s best and top play here and if Empire of Light lands next year, upcoming predictions will reflect that. For now though, she debuts in my top 5 until there is confirmation.

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for May 2022.

1. Margot Robbie – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
2. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
3. Regina King – Shirley (Netflix)
4. Naomie Ackie – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia Pictures)
5. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)

6. Cate Blanchett – TÁR (Focus Features)
7. Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
8. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – lead or supporting?
9. Helen Mirren – Golda (Bleecker Street)
10. Carey Mulligan – She Said (Universal Pictures)
11. Viola Davis – The Woman King (Columbia Pictures)
12. Danielle Deadwyler – Till (MGM/UAR)
13. Michelle Williams – Showing Up (A24)
14. Tang Wei – Decision to Leave (MUBI)
15. Ana De Armas – Blonde (Netflix)
16. Kirsten Dunst – Civil War (A24)
17. Jessica Chastain – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
18. Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White and Water (A24)
19. Annette Bening – Nyad (Netflix)
20. Greta Gerwig – White Noise (Netflix) – lead or supporting?

Other contenders (alphabetical):

• Yalitza Aparicio – Presences (VIX)
• Doona Bae – Broker (NEON)
• Melissa Barrera – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Annette Bening – Jerry and Marge Go Large (Paramount Pictures)
• Juliette Binoche – Paradise Highway (Lionsgate)
• Gemma Chan – True Love (20^th Century Studios)
• Olivia Colman – Joyride (Columbia Pictures)
• Emma Corrin – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
• Emma Corrin – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Manal Issa – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Nathalie Issa – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Judith Ivey – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
• Dakota Johnson – Cha Cha Real Smooth (Apple Original Films)
• Dakota Johnson – Persuasion (Netflix)
• Angelina Jolie – Every Note Played (STX Entertainment)
• Zoe Kazan – She Said (Universal Pictures) – lead or supporting?
• Keira Knightley – Boston Strangler (Warner Bros)
• Valerie Lemercier – Aline (Roadside Attractions)
• Lesley Manville – Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Focus Features)
• Sheila McCarthy – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
• Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Margot Robbie – Amsterdam (20^th Century Studios)
• Saoirse Ronan – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Saoirse Ronan – See How They Run (Searchlight Pictures)
• Taylor Russell – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• Ally Ryder Foster – Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)
• Joanna Scanlan – After Love (Vertigo Releasing)
• Léa Seydoux – Crimes of the Future (NEON)
• Léa Seydoux – One Fine Morning (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing (MGM/UAR)
• Anya Taylor-Joy – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Anamaria Vartolomei – Happening (IFC FILMS)

Without distribution

• Patricia Clarkson – Fair Fight – TBD
• Marion Cotillard – Brother and Sister – TBD
• Marion Cotillard – The Brutalist – TBD
• Penélope Cruz – L’Immensita – TBD
• Charlbi Dean – Triangle of Sadness – TBD
• Virginie Efira – Revoir Paris – TBD
• Anne Hathaway – Eileen – TBD
• Sally Hawkins – The Lost King – TBD
• Talia Ryder – Joika – TBD
• Shailene Woodley – Misanthrope – TBD

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