2024 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (December)

Six actresses have earned Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations: Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon, Emma Stone in Poor Things, Carey Mulligan in Maestro, Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall, Margot Robbie in Barbie and Greta Lee in Past Lives.

That list covers all CCA nominees, who have a field of six. The Globes also have fields of six but two of them, where Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple, Annette Bening in Nyad, Natalie Portman in May December, Alma Pöysti in Fallen Leaves and Cailee Spaeny in Priscilla made the cut.

While major critics’ winners Gladstone, Stone and Hüller are immovable, spots 4 and 5 are truly up in the air for no less than five women all vying for a precious two spots. Mulligan feels like a sure thing. Lee is showing up where she needs to her film is staking an award season claim. Robbie starred in the biggest film of the year and is a producer on it, how does she miss? Bening is aiming for her 5th chance to win but at this point even a nomination is unsure (even co-star Jodie Foster got in both). Barrino in almost any other year makes perfect sense as a first major feature performer breakthrough yet the film has already underperformed before it even opens and she’s largely outshined by her co-stars. But her press tour for the film should be a blue print for the future and if the film is a bonafide hit, she’s probably in. Portman gives one of, if not the, best performances of her career but nearly all the attention is on Charles Melton. Then there’s Spaeny, who has historical precedence on her side: the last English-language performance to win the Venice Volpi Cup for Best Actress and miss an Oscar nomination was Rose Byrne in 2000’s The Goddess of 1967. Does that streak end here?

I’m not even sure that SAG will give us the answers we seek because any combination of these ten names will give justification for ‘locking in’ an Oscar top 5. That’s all to say that almost anything is possible right now, as it should be.

The Golden Globes awards ceremony will be held on Sunday, January 7, 2024 with Critics Choice on January 14. The Screen Actors Guild will reveal their nominations on January 10 and the 30th SAG Awards will be held on February 24. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Best Actress for December 2023.

1. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
2. Emma Stone – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
3. Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – CCA, GG
4. Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG
5. Greta Lee – Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG
6. Margot Robbie – Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
7. Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – GG
8. Annette Bening – Nyad (Netflix) – GG
9. Natalie Portman – May December (Netflix) – GG
10. Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla (A24) – GG

Next up:  Phoebe Dynevor – Fair Play (Netflix), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Origin (NEON), Jane Levy – A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics), Alma Pöysti – Fallen Leaves (MUBI) – GG, Teyana Taylor – A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Other contenders:

• Leonie Benesch – The Teacher’s Lounge (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Jessica Chastain – Memory (Ketchup Entertainment)
• Trace Lysette – Monica (IFC Films)
• Thomasin McKenzie – Eileen (NEON)
• Helen Mirren – Golda (Bleecker Street)
• Michelle Williams – Showing Up (A24)