Critics Choice Association (CCA) Awards Predictions: Expect ‘Sinners’ and ‘One Battle’ to Duke It Out
The 31st Critics Choice Association (CCA) Awards are this Sunday and the big fight is going to be between the two main nomination-getters, Sinners and One Battle After Another. The pair of Warner Bros films will square off in eleven categories, including Best Picture, Best Director, and three of the four acting categories.
With Sinners entering the match up with a field-best 17 nominations to One Battle‘s 14, it could be seen as the favorite but I expect several categories to either volley back and forth or with one being a close runner-up to the other. One Battle currently stands as the overall critics’ champ right now by a significant margin and the two will split the screenplay categories, with Sinners able to take original while One Battle will win adapted. In their main head to head matches it gets tougher but I think Sinners is going to pull it out with wins for Best Picture, Director, Score, Sound and Cast/Ensemble. Best Actor is trickier as I think Timothée Chalamet will pick it up for Marty Supreme, with Michael B. Jordan a close spoiler and Leonardo DiCaprio next.
Best Actress is likely to be a close race but I think this will be Hamnet‘s sole win of the evening, with Jessie Buckley taking it over Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Benicio Del Toro should give One Battle another win, here in Best Supporting Actor, and in Best Supporting Actress the wave for Amy Madigan (Weapons) will likely continue here but Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) are right behind.
Some categories will be easier to predict, like Foreign Language Film likely going to It Was Just an Accident (by virtue of a new rule instituted this year that states if a non-English language film is nominated for Best Picture it can’t be nominated for FLF, which is why Sentimental Value isn’t there) and KPop Demon Hunters in Animated Feature.
CCA has a bit of a reputation of having winners that look more like Oscar predictions than singular choices and often we’ll see them (I say this as a voting member of 500+ critics) lean towards who they think will be an Oscar winner. Last year was an odd, but interesting example. Picking Demi Moore for Best Actress made sense; she won the Globe first, then SAG after CCA and the groundswell behind her was substantial. But we hadn’t seen the true power of Anora yet, one that revealed itself at BAFTA, PGA and DGA in February. Yet, it still nabbed Best Picture at CCA, its only win. I don’t know what to say about the Jon M. Chu Best Director win. That was, an anomaly at best. But in the end, it would be Mikey Madison who got swept up in Anora‘s near complete Oscar sweep.
Voting for Critics Choice ends on January 2 and voting for the Golden Globes ends on January 3 so there won’t be anyone able to look at anyone else’s homework, making for potentially unique or individual choice versus rubber stamping. But with an overall race that seems clearly between two films (two that won’t compete against each other in the Globes’ top film category) it’s really up in the air right now. Sinners sweeping here makes as much sense as One Battle sweeping. One thing’s for sure, Warner Bros will be happy either way.
The 31st Critics Choice Association Awards will take place on Sunday, January 4 live from the Barker Hangar in Santa Monica and be broadcast on E! Chelsea Handler returns as host.
Here are my winner predictions and potential spoilers.
BEST PICTURE
Bugonia (Focus Features)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Hamnet (Focus Features)
Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Marty Supreme (A24)
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
Sentimental Value (Neon)
Sinners (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Train Dreams (Netflix)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme (A24) – PREDICTED WINNER
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams (Netflix)
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent (Neon)
BEST ACTRESS
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet (Focus Features) – PREDICTED WINNER
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) – SPOILER
Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value (Neon)
Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
Emma Stone – Bugonia (Focus Features)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein (Netflix) – SPOILER
Paul Mescal – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value (Neon)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value (Neon)
Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value (Neon)
Amy Madigan – Weapons (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
BEST YOUNG ACTOR / ACTRESS
Everett Blunck – The Plague (Independent Film Company)
Miles Caton – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Cary Christopher – Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Shannon Mahina Gorman – Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures)
Jacobi Jupe – Hamnet (Focus Features) – SPOILER
Nina Ye – Left-Handed Girl (Netflix)
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Netflix)
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24)
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (Neon)
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet (Focus Features)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24)
Ryan Coogler – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Zach Cregger – Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Eva Victor – Sorry, Baby (A24)
Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value (Neon) – SPOILER
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar – Train Dreams (Netflix)
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi, Don Mckellar, Jahye Lee – No Other Choice (Neon)
Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein (Netflix)
Will Tracy – Bugonia (Focus Features)
Chloé Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell – Hamnet (Focus Features) – SPOILER
BEST CASTING AND ENSEMBLE
Nina Gold – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Douglas Aibel, Nina Gold – Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Jennifer Venditti – Marty Supreme (A24)
Cassandra Kulukundis – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
Francine Maisler – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Claudio Miranda – F1 (Apple Original Films)
Dan Laustsen – Frankenstein (Netflix)
Łukasz Żal – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Michael Bauman – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
Autumn Durald Arkapaw – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Adolpho Veloso – Train Dreams (Netflix)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Kasra Farahani, Jille Azis – The Fantastic Four: First Steps (Marvel Studios)
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau – Frankenstein (Netflix) – PREDICTED WINNER
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Jack Fisk, Adam Willis – Marty Supreme (A24)
Hannah Beachler, Monique Champagne – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST EDITING
Kirk Baxter – A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Stephen Mirrione – F1 (Apple Original Films) – PREDICTED WINNER
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme (A24)
Andy Jurgensen – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Viridiana Lieberman – The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)
Michael P. Shawver – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Kate Hawley – Frankenstein (Netflix) – PREDICTED WINNER
Malgosia Turzanska – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Lindsay Pugh – Hedda (Amazon MGM Studios)
Colleen Atwood, Christine Cantella – Kiss of the Spider Woman (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)
Ruth E. Carter – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Paul Tazewell – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) – SPOILER
BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP
Flora Moody, John Nolan – 28 Years Later (Sony Pictures)
Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey – Frankenstein (Netflix) – PREDICTED WINNER
Siân Richards, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Shunika Terry – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Kazu Hiro, Felix Fox, Mia Neal – The Smashing Machine (A24)
Leo Satkovich, Melizah Wheat, Jason Collins – Weapons (Warner Bros.) – SPOLIER
Frances Hannon, Mark Coulier, Laura Blount – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett – Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios) – PREDICTED WINNER
Ryan Tudhope, Nikeah Forde, Robert Harrington, Nicolas Chevallier, Eric Leven, Edward Price, Keith Dawson – F1 (Apple Original Films)
Dennis Berardi, Ayo Burgess, Ivan Busquets, José Granell – Frankenstein (Netflix)
Alex Wuttke, Ian Lowe, Jeff Sutherland, Kirstin Hall – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Paramount Pictures)
Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter, Donnie Dean – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
Stephane Ceretti, Enrico Damm, Stéphane Nazé, Guy Williams – Superman (Warner Bros.)
BEST STUNT DESIGN
Stephen Dunlevy, Kyle Gardiner, Jackson Spidell, Jeremy Marinas, Jan Petřina, Domonkos Párdányi, Kinga Kósa-Gavalda – Ballerina (Lionsgate)
Gary Powell, Luciano Bacheta, Craig Dolby – F1 (Apple Original Films) – SPOILER
Wade Eastwood – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (Paramount Pictures) – PREDICTED WINNER
Brian Machleit – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Andy Gill – Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Giedrius Nagys – Warfare (A24)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Arco (Neon)
Elio (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
In Your Dreams (Netflix)
KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) – PREDICTED WINNER
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)
Zootopia 2 (Walt Disney Animation Studios) – SPOILER
BEST COMEDY
The Ballad of Wallis Island (Focus Features)
Eternity (A24) – SPOILER
Friendship (A24)
The Naked Gun (Paramount) – PREDICTED WINNER
The Phoenician Scheme (Focus Features)
Splitsville (Neon)
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
It Was Just an Accident (Neon) – PREDICTED WINNER
Left-Handed Girl (Netflix)
No Other Choice (Neon)
The Secret Agent (Neon) – SPOILER
Sirāt (Neon)
Belén (Amazon MGM Studios)
BEST SONG
“Drive” – Ed Sheeran, John Mayer, Blake Slatkin – F1 (Apple Original Films)
“Golden” – Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Ido, 24, Teddy – KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix) – PREDICTED WINNER
“I Lied to You” – Raphael Saadiq, Ludwig Göransson – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
“Clothed by the Sun” – Daniel Blumberg – The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
“Train Dreams” – Nick Cave, Bryce Dessner – Train Dreams (Netflix)
“The Girl in the Bubble” – Stephen Schwartz – Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
BEST SCORE
Hans Zimmer – F1 (Apple Original Films)
Alexandre Desplat – Frankenstein (Netflix)
Max Richter – Hamnet (Focus Features)
Daniel Lopatin – Marty Supreme (A24)
Jonny Greenwood – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – SPOILER
Ludwig Göransson – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
BEST SOUND
Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo, Juan Peralta, Gareth John – F1 (Apple Original Films) – SPOILER
Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern, Greg Chapman – Frankenstein (Netflix)
Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio, Tony Villaflor – One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Chris Welcker, Benny Burtt, Brandon Proctor, Steve Boeddeker, Felipe Pacheco, David V. Butler – Sinners (Warner Bros.) – PREDICTED WINNER
Laia Casanovas – Sirāt (Neon)
Mitch Low, Glenn Freemantle, Ben Barker, Howard Bargroff, Richard Spooner – Warfare (A24)
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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