FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING and VISUAL EFFECTS

Erik Anderson January 14, 2026

While Frankenstein is a sure bet for Makeup and Hairstyling, with its Critics Choice win, three MUAH noms and BAFTA longlist mention, getting blanked by the Visual Effects Society puts it on shaky ground in that category.

Insight from the VFX bake-off revealed love for the complicated work in Sinners, the photoreal look of The Lost Bus and the recreation of car crashes in F1 being popular with the group.

Horror makeup is hit and miss with this Oscar branch, going from giving the win to The Substance last year to snubbing Weapons at the shortlist. How will Sinners fare in that regard? While obviously a much bigger film than either of those titles and one that will likely be pushing near or past the Oscar nomination record, it should be in. The seemingly subtle make-up of Marty Supreme (largely facial prosthetics for Timothée Chalamet for acne scars) also proved popular. Speaking of popular, the practical creations of the Tin Man and the Scarecrow in Wicked: For Good should secure it a spot. But little is actually secure outside of Frankenstein, which could find an upset from the geisha make-up in Kokuho (a style that has won here before), The Ugly Stepsister (another realm of body horror) and One Battle After Another, which is only being considered for Sean Penn’s final transformation.

Here are my final 2026 Oscar nomination predictions for Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Frankenstein (Netflix) Mike Hill, Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel	CCA, MUAH (x3) (BAFTA longlist)
2. Sinners (Warner Bros) Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine, Shunika Terry	CCA, MUAH (x3) (BAFTA longlist)
3. The Smashing Machine (A24) ↑ Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin, Bjoern Rehbein	CCA, MUAH (BAFTA longlist)
4. Marty Supreme (A24) ↑ Mike Fontaine, Kay Georgiou, Kyra Pachenko	MUAH (BAFTA longlist)
5. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) ↓ Mark Coulier, Frances Hannon, Laura Blount	CCA, MUAH (x3) (BAFTA longlist)
6. Kokuho (GKIDS) ↓ Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu
7. The Ugly Stepsister (Shudder) ↑ Anne Catherine Sauerberg, Thomas Foldberg
8. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) ↓ Arjen Tuiten	MUAH (x3) (BAFTA longlist)
9. Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics) ↓ Jan Sewell, Renata Gilbert, Sharon Robbins	(BAFTA longlist)
10. The Alto Knights (Warner Bros) ↓ Jerry Popolis, Hiro Yada, Jason Hamer

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century Studios)	CCA, VES (x10) (BAFTA longlist)
2. F1 (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros)	CCA, VES (x2) (BAFTA longlist)
3. The Lost Bus (Apple Original Films) ↑	VES (x4) (BAFTA longlist)
4. Sinners (Warner Bros) ↑	CCA, VES (x1)
5. Superman (Warner Bros) ↑	CCA, VES (x4) (BAFTA longlist)
6. Frankenstein (Netflix) ↓	CCA (BAFTA longlist)
7. Tron: Ares (Walt Disney) ↑	VES (x2) (BAFTA longlist)
8. The Electric State (Netflix) ↓
9. Jurassic World: Rebirth (Universal Pictures)	VES (x1) (BAFTA longlist)
10. Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures) ↓	VES (x1) (BAFTA longlist)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.