FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR
A true see-saw of a category this season, where one contender dominated early critics wins but as we got closer to the televised awards season, faded into the background as others rose.
Benicio Del Toro came out of the gates running with his brief but impactful turn in One Battle After Another, collecting two trifecta prizes in NYFCC and NSFC on his way to 22 wins this season. Then, in early January, Jacob Elordi won Critics Choice for Frankenstein. A week later Stellan Skarsgård won the Golden Globe for Sentimental Value. The final nails in del Toro’s Oscar coffin were then hammered by his own co-star, Sean Penn, who stormed in with the only two industry wins, BAFTA and SAG. Penn’s hyper-villainous turn at Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw, both terrifying and silly, proved unbeatable and the Oscars love a monster in this category (Christoph Waltz, Javier Bardem, Heath Ledger) and the two-time Oscar winner is likely going to join an elite club with three. He’s precisely the type of respected actor that can win three and not liking him personally won’t help your prediction abilities.
If someone can upset here, my bet would be Elordi in conjunction with his film’s likely makeup win or Skarsgård with his film likely taking International Feature Film and becoming a history-making win for a non-English language performance in this category.
I don’t generally buy into the ‘applause meter’ theory that Delroy Lindo can come from nothing to win it all, or that he’s the ‘new Marcia Gay Harden.’ There’s a reason these types of wins are as rare as they are; they’re impossible to predict because the Academy just doesn’t go that far out on its own. Even if there is a tide change and March 15 becomes a Sinners mini-sweep, Lindo is the least likely to get swept up in it. Also a respected actor among his peers, this long-awaited nomination is his reward. I do think though that two events in the last two weeks could change that. The horrible incident at BAFTA, where Tourette’s activist John Davidson blurted out the n-word while he and Michael B. Jordan were onstage–and the grace with which Lindo carried on–underscored underscored the racial themes of Sinners and even though the tic was an involuntary symptom of Davidson’s condition, it doesn’t change the real world impact of not just hearing it but having it be shot firmly in your direction. Next, the SAG Awards were last weekend, which saw Sinners win the cast award and lead actor for Jordan. Neither were big surprises but in the aftermath of BAFTA the response and reaction had an elevated sense of necessity and Lindo was given the mic to speak for the cast and the final award of the night. While it was a bit wobbly and meandering, the audience didn’t mind as it was a part of a much-needed salve post-BAFTA.
Here are my final winner predictions in Supporting Actor for the 98th Academy Awards, which will take place on March 15, live at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, California.
| 1. Sean Penn in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value (NEON) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 4. Benicio Del Toro in One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Delroy Lindo in Sinners (Warner Bros) |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR 
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