Predictions for Sound (CAS, MPSE), Cinematography (ASC) and Writers Guilds (WGA) Awards
It’s a big weekend of major guilds with Cinema Audio Society (CAS), American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) all revealing their winners the weekend before the Oscars.
This slate of guilds could be the stage for Sinners that SAG set last weekend as it challenges F1 in sound categories and One Battle After Another and Train Dreams in cinematography. But, One Battle is nominated everywhere as well and has already proven its strength in some of these categories. The WGA awards are all but locked up for One Battle and Sinners in adapted and original, respectively.
As a single sound mixing category, the CAS has cast a wide net of the types of films they’ve given their top film prize to: musicals, musically-adjacent films, huge action blockbusters, race cars, science and space. In any given year, any of this year’s nominees could be winners but logic would say that F1 and Sinners are the films to beat here. F1 has the BAFTA and Critics Choice so far. It’s a newly small sample size, but since the Oscars merged sound mixing and sound editing back together, CAS has gone 4/5 and BAFTA has gone 4/5, but with different films/years. If you go back 10 years with CAS, they’ve matched all but that same one year; just last year when A Complete Unknown won CAS while Dune: Part Two won the Oscar.
In cinematography, Train Dreams has won Critics Choice and One Battle After Another has the British Society of Cinematographers and BAFTA, both besting Sinners. There has been quite a push for Sinners‘ director of photography Autumn Arkapaw Durald to become the first woman to win the Best Cinematography Oscar and she comes in with the overwhelming majority of critics wins so far. The American Society of Cinematographers will be a big test but in the nearly 40 years of the ASC they’ve only just awarded their top theatrical prize to a woman for the first time three years, Mandy Walker for Elvis, who lost the Oscar. This is a close race between these three films. Since 2010, ASC has aligned with the Oscars just 9/15 times. Critics Choice is 10/15. BAFTA fares better with 12/15. If Train Dreams or One Battle wins this it puts them out in front. If Sinners does, well, the race gets a little more interesting. If the film is strong enough for voters to down ballot (and it certainly could be) then we could have our first female winner here ever.
The Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) have three categories for film: feature effects/foley, feature dialogue/ADR and music editing. Sinners and One Battle are nominated for all three. Frankenstein has two, F1 has two. I think F1 should be able to take the first one but Sinners is a formidable contender. But I think where it can stand out is either dialogue/ADR or music. But I’m not counting out One Battle or KPop Demon Hunters there, respectively.
For WGA, it doesn’t get any easier than predicting One Battle for adapted and Sinners for original. Anything else would be a massive upset.
Here are my winner predictions for Cinema Audio Society (CAS), American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE) and the Writers Guild of America (WGA).
Cinema Audio Society Awards (CAS)
Predicted winner: F1
Spoiler: Sinners
Other nominees: Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another
American Society of Cinematographers Awards (ASC)
Predicted winner: One Battle After Another
Spoiler: Sinners
Other nominees: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Train Dreams
Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel Awards (MPSE)
Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Effects / Foley
Predicted winner: F1
Spoiler: Sinners
Other nominees: Anemone, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Dialogue / ADR
Predicted winner: Sinners
Spoiler: One Battle After Another
Other nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein
Outstanding Achievement in Music Editing – Feature Motion Picture
Predicted winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Spoiler: Sinners
Other nominees: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature Animation
Predicted winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Spoiler: The Bad Guys 2
Other nominees: Elio, Zootopia 2
Outstanding Achievement in Sound Editing – Feature International
Predicted winner: Sirāt
Spoiler: Sound of Falling
Other nominees: Bélen, Dong Ji Rescue
Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA)
Adapted Screenplay
Predicted winner: One Battle After Another
Spoiler: Hamnet
Other nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Train Dreams
Original Screenplay
Predicted winner: Sinners
Spoiler: Marty Supreme
Other nominees: Black Bag, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Weapons
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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