FINAL 2026 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Two of the easiest categories to predict on Oscar night are right here, and have been months.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is the first screenplay to sweep all precursors (Critics Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA, WGA plus USC) since 2010’s The Social Network, which won Aaron Sorkin the Oscar. Ryan Coogler brings in BAFTA, Critics Choice and WGA for the original screenplay to Sinners.
There is virtually no room for an upset in either category, no one has won except Anderson and Coogler. Anyone else would be pretty earth-shattering here.
Here are my final winner predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for the 98th Academy Awards, which will take place on March 15, live at the Dolby Theater in Hollywood, California.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
| 1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros) Written by Paul Thomas Anderson | BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC, WGA |
| 2. Hamnet (Focus Features) Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell | BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC, WGA |
| 3. Bugonia (Focus Features) Screenplay by Will Tracy | BAFTA, CCA, WGA |
| 4. Train Dreams (Netflix) Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar | CCA, USC, WGA |
| 5. Frankenstein (Netflix) Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro | CCA, USC, WGA |
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
| 1. Sinners (Warner Bros) Written by Ryan Coogler | BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA |
| 2. Sentimental Value (NEON) Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 3. Marty Supreme (A24) Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie | BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA |
| 4. Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics) Written by Robert Kaplow | |
| 5. It Was Just an Accident (NEON) Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian | GG |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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