2018 Oscar Predictions – THE SCREENPLAYS (August): Darkest Hour Goes Adapted, The Papers Leads Original
A big change this month with a category change for a major release. Darkest Hour, which had been a contender in Original Screenplay is being moved to Adapted based on this article which details screenwriter Anthony McCarten’s own book being the source material for the film. The book, which is being published by Viking, comes out in hardcover in October (a month ahead of the film’s U.S. release) and in paperback in December. It should be noted that I have not received official confirmation on this category placement from Focus Features as of this writing but I wanted the Gold Rush Gang to get ahead of the curve here. With this move, Darkest Hour debuts at #6 this month in Adapted Screenplay.[UPDATE: the previous article was incorrect and corrected by Viking. Here is the update.] The top three hold strong and The Death of Stalin, from Armando Iannucci, moves into the top 5.
But Darkest Hour isn’t the only debut this month, Hostiles with Christian Bale and Annette Bening’s potential Oscar vehicle Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool come in at #8 and #15, respectively.
These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for August in Adapted Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Call Me By Your Name | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 99 |
| 2 | Last Flag Flying | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 88 |
| 3 | Mudbound | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 74 |
| 4 | The Death of Stalin | 4 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 57 |
| 5 | Wonderstruck | 6 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 52 |
| 6 | Darkest Hour | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 50 | |||
| 7 | Lean on Pete | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 43 | |
| 8 | Victoria and Abdul | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 23 | ||
| 9 | Molly’s Game | 8 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 16 | |||||
| 10 | Disobedience | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | |||
| 11 | The Disaster Artist | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |||||
| 12 | Blade Runner 2049 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | ||||||
| 13 | Hostiles | 8 | 6 | 8 | ||||||||
| 14 | Annihilation | 5 | 6 | |||||||||
| 15 | The 15:17 to Paris | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| 15 | Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| The Beguiled | ||||||||||||
| The Glass Castle | ||||||||||||
| How to Talk to Girls at Parties | ||||||||||||
| The Leisure Seeker | ||||||||||||
| The Mountain Between Us | ||||||||||||
| The Snowman | ||||||||||||
| Stronger | ||||||||||||
| Thank You For Your Service | ||||||||||||
| Thoroughbred | ||||||||||||
| Wonder | ||||||||||||
| You Were Never Really Here |
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The move to Adapted by Darkest Hour opened the door for most of last month’s top 5 to move up and they did. The Papers still holds onto the top spot but Get Out is now just behind at #2 and after debuting at #8 in July, The Shape of Water lands at #4 for August, part of its major, across the board chart move this month. Only Detroit, which opened in 20 theaters last weekend and goes wide tomorrow, falls and drops out of the top 5.
The Big Sick, Phantom Thread and Wonder Wheel see bumps up this month and Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird is August’s sole debut in Original Screenplay.
These are the official 2018 Oscar Predictions for August in Original Screenplay from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ERIK ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE | GREG HOWARD | EVAN KOST |
JASON OSIASON | KENNETH POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ | RICHARD ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT | MATT DINN | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Papers | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 92 |
| 2 | Get Out | 2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 85 |
| 3 | Roman Israel, Esq. | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 66 | |
| 4 | The Shape of Water | 4 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 65 |
| 5 | The Florida Project | 3 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 56 |
| 6 | Detroit | 6 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 50 | ||
| 7 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 8 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 42 |
| 8 | The Big Sick | 7 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 29 | |
| 9 | Phantom Thread | 7 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 18 | |||
| 10 | Wonder Wheel | 9 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 13 | |||||
| 11 | Suburbicon | 4 | 9 | 9 | ||||||||
| 12 | Lady Bird | 10 | 6 | 6 | ||||||||
| 13 | The Killing of a Sacred Deer | 10 | 8 | 10 | 5 | |||||||
| 14 | Downsizing | 10 | 9 | 3 | ||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| All the Money in the World | ||||||||||||
| Baby Driver | ||||||||||||
| Brad’s Status | ||||||||||||
| Breathe | ||||||||||||
| The Current War | ||||||||||||
| Dunkirk | ||||||||||||
| The Greatest Showman | ||||||||||||
| Goodbye Christopher Robin | ||||||||||||
| Happy End | ||||||||||||
| Hostiles | ||||||||||||
| I, Tonya (possibly 2018) | ||||||||||||
| Kings | ||||||||||||
| Marshall | ||||||||||||
| Mary Magdalene | ||||||||||||
| The Meyerowitz Stories | ||||||||||||
| mother! | ||||||||||||
| Novitiate | ||||||||||||
| Under the Silver Lake | ||||||||||||
| Wind River |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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