2019 Oscar Predictions: ORIGINAL SCORE and ORIGINAL SONG (November)
If Beale Street Could Talk and A Star Is Born remain atop the Original Score and Original Song chart for November.
This month sees a move into the top 5 for Black Panther, which would be a first Oscar nomination for composer Ludwig Göransson, who previously scored Creed, Venom earlier this fall and Creed II which opens this weekend.
Renowned musician and composer Max Richter (you know his most famous piece “On the Nature of Daylight,” which has been featured in the films Shutter Island and Arrival) bursts into the top 10 with his score for Mary Queen of Scots, which just world premiered at AFI FEST last week.
In Original Song, “Shallow” from A Star Is Born was already a lock for nomination and the frontrunner to win. But then Warner Bros did something strange and altogether unnecessary; they stopped pushing two other songs that were originally on their FYC page, “Always Remember Us This Way” and “I’ll Never Love Again” to promote only “Shallow,” essentially knocking out an easy nomination to what is going to be a healthy total. While the category is going to see some tough competition from Mary Poppins Returns, Black Panther and Boy Erased, I can’t really see the logic behind the decision.
Entering the top 10 this month are two songs from films about Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. First is the “Here Comes the Change,” from the feature film On the Basis of Sex. It’s written and performed by Kesha. Next is “I’ll Fight,” from the documentary feature RBG. It’s performed by Oscar winner Jennifer Hudson and written by 9-time Oscar nominee Diane Warren. Warren is someone the Academy loves to nominate but has never found the right year, the right song for her to win. Despite having “I’ll Fight” at #8 for the month I can absolutely see Warren being nominated for this. I’ll probably bump her up on an upcoming Frontrunner Friday but the 15-song shortlist on December 17th (which will also include Original Score) will tell us a lot.
Here are my 2019 Oscar predictions in Original Score and Original Song for November 21, 2018.
ORIGINAL SCORE
1. If Beale Street Could Talk (Annapurna)
2. First Man (Universal)
3. Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
4. Widows (20th Century Fox)
5. Black Panther (Disney)
6. BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features)
7. Green Book (Universal)
8. Incredibles 2 (Disney)
9. Vice (Annapurna)
10. Mary Queen of Scots (Focus Features)
NEXT UP
Boy Erased (Focus Features)
Destroyer (Annapurna)
The Mule (Warner Bros)
Suspiria (Amazon)
Wildlife (IFC Films)
OTHER CONTENDERS
All is True (Sony Classics)
Beautiful Boy (Amazon)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Fox Searchlight)
Colette (Bleecker Street)
Hereditary (A24)
Isle of Dogs (Fox Searchlight)
Mid90s (A24)
The Old Man & the Gun (Fox Searchlight)
On the Basis of Sex (Focus Features)
ORIGINAL SONG
1. A Star Is Born, “Shallow” (Warner Bros)
2. Black Panther, “All the Stars” (Disney)
3. Mary Poppins Returns, “The Place Where Lost Things Go” (Disney)
4. Boy Erased, “Revelation” (Focus Features)
5. Free Solo, “Gravity” (NatGeo)
6. Mary Poppins Returns, “Trip a Light Fantastic” (Disney)
7. On the Basis of Sex, “Here Comes Change” (Focus Features)
8. RBG, “I’ll Fight” (Magnolia)
9. Green Book, “I Count on Me” (Universal)
10. Widows, “The Big Unknown” (20th Century Fox)
NEXT UP
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” (Netflix)
Deadpool 2, “Ashes” (20th Century Fox)
Dumplin,’ “Girl in the Movies” (Netflix)
Fifty Shades Freed, “Capital Letters” (Universal)
Fifty Shades Freed, “For You” (Universal)
The Grinch, “I Am the Grinch” (Universal)
The Hate U Give, “We Won’t Move” (20th Century Fox)
Hearts Beat Loud, “Hearts Beat Loud” (Stage 6 Films/Gunpowder & Sky)
Love, Simon, “Alfie’s Song (Not So Typical Love Song)” (20th Century Fox)
Love, Simon, “Love Lies” (20th Century Fox)
The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, “Fall On Me” (Disney)
Quincy, “Keep Reachin'” (Netflix)
A Private War, “A Private War” (Aviron Pictures)
Ralph Breaks the Internet, “Zero” (Disney)
Shirkers, “Tick Tick” (Netflix)
Smallfoot, “Finally Free” (Sony)
Smallfoot, “Wonderful Life” (Sony)
A Star Is Born, “Always Remember Us This Way” (Warner Bros)
A Star Is Born, “I’ll Never Love Again” (Warner Bros)
Suspiria, “Suspirium” (Amazon)
A Wrinkle in Time, “Flower of the Universe” (Disney)
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He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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