Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Let the Guilds Begin
This is the first Frontrunner Friday post-Oscar nominations and this weekend alone will unveil the ACE Eddie winners (tonight), the Producers Guild awards on Saturday and the Screen Actors Guild awards on Sunday. Check out previews and predictions in links.
These predictions today are a bit of a fun gamble because we haven’t had the weight of industry and guild response yet and after this weekend, they’ll be flying at us nearly every day for the next two weeks.
I feel very secure in the four acting categories and that we’ll see the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA and then the Oscars all fall in line with the same four: Joaquin Phoenix, Renée Zellweger, Brad Pitt and Laura Dern. There isn’t much to upset this quartet no matter how much people want it to be a race (and therefore something to actually talk about).
1917 is an easy win in Cinematography but is battling Ford v Ferrari for the sound awards; The Irishman for visual effects (or will The Lion King prevail?) and Joker for Original Score. Parasite is winning International Feature Film. That leaves a healthy batch of open categories or at least categories that could go multiple ways.
With Apollo 11 snubbed in Documentary Feature (oh you petulant little doc branch voters, you) we’ve got an open race of largely non-English language docs where everyone can vote now. The Cave is making a strong push, For Sama is a BIFA winner (but the two both deal with strikingly similar subject matter), The Edge of Democracy is a perfect representation of world revolt, American Factory is the first film exec produced by former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama and Honeyland pulled off the historic feat of being nominated here and in International Feature Film. I want to give the edge to American Factory for the duo of Obama and Netflix but it could go to anyone.
Production Design feels like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood‘s to lose (it’s been the critics’ winner) and Little Women in Costume Design makes a lot of sense. With Frozen II locked out of Animated Feature it’s probably giving Toy Story 4 a big leg up as there is now no internal Disney vs Pixar fight. Missing Link is definitely a dark horse possibility though as voters haven’t been too kind to sequels here.
The screenplay categories are really up for grabs. Original should be between Once Upon a Time… and Parasite. Adapted is wider with almost all nominees having a decent shot. But what if voters really, intentionally, want to see Baumbach/Gerwig wins and go for Marriage Story and Little Women? A distinct possibility.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions for January 17, 2020.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Parasite (Neon) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Foreign), PGA, SAG |
| 2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), PGA, SAG |
| 3. 1917 (Universal) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA |
| 4. The Irishman (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA, SAG |
| 5. Joker (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), PGA |
| 6. Jojo Rabbit (Searchlight) | CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), PGA, SAG |
| 7. Marriage Story (Netflix) | CCA, GG (Drama), PGA |
| 8. Little Women (Sony/Columbia) | CCA, PGA |
| 9. Ford v Ferrari (20th Century) | CCA, PGA |
DIRECTOR
| 1. Bong Joon Ho – Parasite (Neon) | BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG |
| 2. Sam Mendes – 1917 (Universal) | BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG |
| 3. Quentin Tarantino – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG |
| 4. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG |
| 5. Todd Phillips – Joker (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, GG |
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), SAG |
| 2. Adam Driver – Marriage Story (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), SAG |
| 3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Comedy/Musical), SAG |
| 4. Jonathan Pryce – The Two Popes (Netflix) | BAFTA, GG (Drama) |
| 5. Antonio Banderas – Pain and Glory (Sony Classics) | CCA, GG (Drama) |
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Renée Zellweger – Judy (Roadside Attractions) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), SAG |
| 2. Scarlett Johansson – Marriage Story (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), SAG |
| 3. Charlize Theron – Bombshell (Lionsgate) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama), SAG |
| 4. Cynthia Erivo – Harriet (Focus Features) | CCA, GG (Drama), SAG |
| 5. Saoirse Ronan – Little Women (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA, GG (Drama) |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Brad Pitt – Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2.Joe Pesci – The Irishman (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Al Pacino – The Irishman (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 4. Tom Hanks – A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Sony/TriStar) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 5. Anthony Hopkins – The Two Popes (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Laura Dern – Marriage Story (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 2. Margot Robbie – Bombshell (Lionsgate) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
| 3. Scarlett Johansson – Jojo Rabbit (Searchlight) | BAFTA, SAG |
| 4. Florence Pugh – Little Women (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA |
| 5. Kathy Bates – Richard Jewell (Warner Bros) | GG |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. Little Women (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA, WGA |
| 2. Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight) | BAFTA, CCA, WGA |
| 3. The Irishman (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA |
| 4. The Two Popes (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 5. Joker (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, WGA |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 2. Parasite (Neon) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA |
| 3. Marriage Story (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, WGA |
| 4. 1917 (Universal) | WGA |
| 5. Knives Out (Lionsgate) | BAFTA, CCA, WGA |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Ford v. Ferrari (20th Century) | BAFTA, CCA, ACE (Drama) |
| 2. Parasite (Neon) | CCA, ACE (Drama) |
| 3. Joker (Warner Bros) | ACE (Drama), BAFTA |
| 4. The Irishman (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, ACE (Drama) |
| 5. Jojo Rabbit (Searchlight) | ACE (Comedy), BAFTA |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. 1917 (Universal) | ASC, BAFTA, CCA |
| 2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | ASC, CCA |
| 3. The Irishman (Netflix) | ASC, BAFTA, CCA |
| 4. Joker (Warner Bros) | ASC, BAFTA, CCA |
| 5. The Lighthouse (A24) | BAFTA, CCA |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA, ADG (Period) |
| 2. 1917 (Universal) | BAFTA, CCA, ADG (Period) |
| 3. The Irishman (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, ADG (Period) |
| 4. Parasite (Neon) | CCA, ADG (Contemporary) |
| 5. Jojo Rabbit (Searchlight) | ADG (Period), BAFTA |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | BAFTA, CCA, CDG (Period) |
| 2. Little Women (Sony) | BAFTA, CCA |
| 3. Jojo Rabbit (Searchlight) | BAFTA, CDG (Period) |
| 4. The Irishman (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA |
| 5. Joker (Warner Bros) | N/A |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Joker (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 2. 1917 (Universal) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 3. Little Women (Sony) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 4. Marriage Story (Netflix) | CCA, GG |
| 5. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) | BAFTA |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. Rocketman – “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Paramount) | CCA, GG |
| 2. Harriet – “Stand Up” (Focus Features) | CA, GG |
| 3. Toy Story 4 – “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Disney/Pixar) | N/A |
| 4. Frozen II – “Into the Unknown” (Disney) | CCA, GG |
| 5. Breakthrough – “I’m Standing with You” (20th Century) | CCA |
SOUND EDITING
| 1. 1917 (Universal) | MPSE (x2) |
| 2. Ford v Ferrari (20th Century) | MPSE (x2) |
| 3. Joker (Warner Bros) | MPSE (x3) |
| 4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) | MPSE |
| 5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | MPSE (x3) |
SOUND MIXING
| 1. 1917 (Universal) | BAFTA |
| 2. Ford v Ferrari (20th Century) | BAFTA, CAS |
| 3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia) | CAS |
| 4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) | BAFTA |
| 5. Ad Astra (20th Century) | N/A |
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
| 1. Bombshell (Lionsgate) | BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (x3) |
| 2. Joker (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, MUAH |
| 3. Judy (Roadside Attractions) | BAFTA, CCA |
| 4. 1917 (Universal) | BAFTA |
| 5. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (Disney) | MUAH |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. The Lion King (Disney) | BAFTA, CCA, VES (x5) |
| 2. Avengers: Endgame (Disney) | Annie, BAFTA, CCA, VES (x4) |
| 3. The Irishman (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, VES (x2) |
| 4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) | BAFTA, VES (x5) |
| 5. 1917 (Universal) | BAFTA, CCA |
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. Toy Story 4 (Disney/Pixar) | Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, VES (x5) |
| 2. Missing Link (LAIKA/Annapurna/UAR) | Annie, CCA, GG, VES (x4) |
| 3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dreamworks) | Annie, CCA, GG, VES (x2) |
| 4. Klaus (Netflix) | Annie, BAFTA, VES (x2) |
| 5. I Lost My Body (Netflix) | Annie (Indie), CCA |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. American Factory (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, DGA |
| 2. Honeyland (Neon) | CCA, DGA |
| 3. For Sama (PBS) | BAFTA |
| 4. The Cave (National Geographic) | CCA, DGA |
| 5. The Edge of Democracy (Netflix) | N/A |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. South Korea – Parasite (Neon) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 2. Spain – Pain and Glory (Sony Classics) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
| 3. France – Les Misérables (Amazon) | CCA, GG |
| 4. North Macedonia – Honeyland (Neon) | N/A |
| 5. Poland – Corpus Christi (Film Movement) | N/A |
ANIMATED SHORT
| 1. Hair Love |
| 2. Kitbull |
| 3. Sister |
| 4. Dcera (Daughter) |
| 5. Memorable |
LIVE ACTION SHORT
| 1. Brotherhood |
| 2. Nefta Football Club |
| 3. A Sister |
| 4. The Neighbors’ Window |
| 5. Saria |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
| 1. Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone (If You’re a Girl) |
| 2. In the Absence |
| 3. Walk Run Cha-Cha |
| 4. St. Louis Superman |
| 5. Life Overtakes Me |
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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