Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Promising Young Woman

It was just last week that I mentioned in the January 15 Frontrunner Friday that those predictions would be posted just hours before I had seen Malcolm & Marie and here we are with a real contender for the Best Actress crown in Zendaya.

The film, written and directed by Euphoria creator Sam Levinson, details a single night of a couple (Zendaya and a never better John David Washington) coming home the night of his successful film premiere to fight, fuck and lament the state of film criticism. It’s brutal and biting and Zendaya, still hot off her historic Emmy win last September, gives the kind of performance actors dream of. It’s volatile and explosive and in equal turns, deeply internalized and lived in. It’s her most mature role to date for a woman who can play 16 as easy as she can play 24.

She’s going to face stiff competition with Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) already racking up best actress critics wins. But with February being the new December, it may just be the late breaking release that charges into Oscar nomination morning full steam.

I also screened Warner Bros’ Judas and the Black Messiah and it cemented Daniel Kaluuya as one of the top two supporting actor contenders this season. It’s an electric, kinetic performance that is really a co-lead among this season’s many period films being labeled ‘topical’ or ‘relevant’ to 2020 and beyond, Kaluuya’s Fred Hampton stands tall. Ironically, his toughest competition will come from another late 60s/early 70s civil rights activist in Sacha Baron Cohen’s Abbie Hoffman in Netlfix’s The Trial of the Chicago 7. I give SBC the slight edge as he also has Amazon’s Borat in his back pocket and is pressing the virtual press flesh largely and loudly right now. But it’s going to be an exciting race in this category.

But how will the film play in other categories, including Best Picture? As one of only two major studio releases with realistic Best Picture dreams (the other being Universal’s News of the World) it’s hard to think that many of the old school Academy members, especially the producers, executives and members-at-large, won’t feel a need to give it an extra push in a year that turned film releases upside down. It’s hard to see a spot for LaKeith Stanfield in best actor. It’s not a big enough role or performance to jump the line ahead of the likes of other potential first timers who’ve already won critics’ awards like Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods) and Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) or previous winners like Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank) and Tom Hanks (News of the World). I think there’s room for Dominique Fishback in supporting actress but probably only if the film ends up being a big overperformer, which it could be. But Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) and Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) have dominated the supporting actress race so far as the top first-timer contenders. Sean Bobbitt’s incredible cinematography and the film’s sound design are also in play.

Speaking of Warner Bros, the studio finally set up their awards page for the season and Birds of Prey is mysteriously missing. Even more curious, it’s also missing from the official BAFTA list of eligible releases for their awards. BOP could be a major contender in multiple below the line categories like makeup and hair and visual effects but if their not going to push the film, and instead give that push to the much-maligned Wonder Woman 1984, they could be costing themselves some easy nominations.

Supporting Actress is giving me one of the biggest headaches. I want to find a place for Maria Bakalova’s brilliant and brave performance in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm. She’s tied with Minari‘s Youn Yuh-jung as the critics’ award leaders right now, but that doesn’t always translate to an Oscar nomination, even if you’re a previous winner or nominee like Lupita Nyong’o and Ethan Hawke recently found out. I think Bakalova is battling it out with Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) at the moment (instead of Youn, only by virtue of being in a stronger film, but they’re both vulnerable). A wild thought, as Close was an on paper frontrunner to win last summer. I just keep getting flashbacks of Kathy Bates stomping all over Jennifer Lopez last year. The Golden Globes won’t be much help as Bakalova is in lead there but a SAG nomination will tell us a lot. This is a tough race.

On the critics’ awards front, last week brought us the Gotham Awards, with acting wins for Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) and Nicole Beharie (Miss Juneteenth) and Nomadland continued its run with another best picture prize. Documentary went to Garrett Bradley’s Time (in a tie with A Thousand Cuts), putting the film out in front of the non-fiction race. Radha Blank (The Forty-Year Old Version) may have missed the breakthrough director award (The Vast of Night‘s Andrew Patterson won) but she did pick up best screenplay over formidable competition like Kelly Reichardt and Jon Raymond’s First Cow and the aforementioned Patterson.

2020-2021 Awards Tracker Leaderboard – The Critics

Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman had a phenomenal week, packed full of critics’ nominations from St. Louis (who announce winners on Sunday the 17th) and best picture wins from San Diego and Music City critics. Minari is also building steam with a best picture win from Discussing Film (just in their second year) and as the nomination leader with Houston critics. Hawaii critics (also in their second year) named The Trial of the Chicago 7 best picture and just today North Dakota tossed another in the ring for Nomadland.

Top tier critics group National Society of Film Critics (NSFC) announced their winners on Saturday, with Nomadland taking Best Picture just barely over First Cow. Supporting acting winners Paul Raci (Sound of Metal) and Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) also continued their surprising runs with wins here.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for January 15, 2021. For monthly predictions, click on each category title.

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

4. Mank (Netflix)
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

5. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

6. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)

7. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)

9. Minari (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

10. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

2. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)

3. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

4. George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

5. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

3. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

4. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)

5. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)

4. Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie (Netflix)

5. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

2. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)

2. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

3. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

4. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)

5. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin

2. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher

3. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

5. Minari (A24)
Lee Isaac Chung

FILM EDITING

1.  The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Alan Baumgarten

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao

3. Mank (Netflix)
Kirk Baxter

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
William Goldenberg

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards

3. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Sean Bobbitt

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Cristina Casali (production designer), Charlotte Dirickx (set decorator)

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Mark Ricker (production designer), Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decorators)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Trish Summerville

2. Emma. (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne

3. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Paolo Nieddu

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ann Roth

5. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Bina Daigeler

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Matiki Anoff (makeup department head), Mia Neal (hair department head), Larry M. Cherry (hair department head)

2. Bill & Ted Face the Music (Orion Pictures)
Bill Corso (makeup department head), Kevin Yagher (special makeup effects artist)

3. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) (Netflix)
Eryn Krueger Mekash (makeup department head), Patricia Dehaney (hair department head), Matthew Mungle (prosthetic designer)

4. The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu)
Ronald J. Wolfe (hair department head), Charles Gregory Ross (hair stylist: Ms. Day, wig designer, hair department head) Laini Thompson (makeup department head)

5. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (and John Batiste, if eligible)

2. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

3. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
James Newton Howard

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Terence Blanchard

5. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

2. “Io Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Written by Diane Warren

3. “Rocket to the Moon” fromOver the Moon (Netflix)
Written by Christopher Curtis, Marjorie Duffield & Helen Park

4. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Written by Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha

5. “Just Sing” from Trolls: World Tour (DreamWorks Animation)
Written by Justin Timberlake, Ludwig Göransson, Max Martin and Sarah Aarons

SOUND

1. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Richard King, Mark Larry, Kevin O’Connell, Gary A. Rizzo

2. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Randy Thom, Dan Hiland, Todd Beckett, Danny Hambrook, Bjorn Schroeder

3. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum

5. Mank (Netflix)
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, Drew Kunin

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon

2. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers

3. The Invisible Man (Universal Pictures)
Jonathan Dearing, Marcus Bolton, Matt Ebb, Aevar Bjarnason

4. Mulan (Disney+)
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, Steve Ingram

5. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon/GKIDS)
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Over the Moon (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim

4. Earwig and the Witch (Studio Ghibli)
Gorô Miyazaki

5. Onward (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Collective (Magnolia Selects)
Alexander Nanau

2. Time (Amazon Studios)
Garrett Bradley

3. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films)
David France

4. Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark)

2. Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)

3. Collective (Romania)

4. A Sun (Taiwan)

5. You Will Die at Twenty (Sudan)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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