2021 Oscar Predictions: CINEMATOGRAPHY (February)

With 21 critics’ wins, Nomadland‘s Joshua James Richards is the overwhelming critics’ frontrunner with Erik Messerschmidt (Mank) in a relatively distant second. Hoyte van Hoytema (Tenet), Christopher Blauvelt (First Cow) and Miguel I. Littin-Menz (The Vast of Night) are the only other cinematographers to grab one or more mentions so far this season.

Da 5 Bloods drops hard this month, out of the top 10, as Minari, First Cow and more rise. Promising Young Woman and The White Tiger debut, albeit late, on the strength of each of them surging elsewhere at the right time. The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) announces their nominees on March 9, the same day as BAFTA noms, giving us the final pieces of the puzzle before Oscar nominations the very next week. Which is a good thing because I have the same top 5 now for the third month in a row. Something’s gotta shake this up. Or does it? If anything’s going to, it will be Minari or Judas and the Black Messiah.

Here are my ranked 2021 Oscar predictions in Cinematography for February.

Green – moves up ↑; Red – moves down ↓; Blue – new or re-entry this month +; Black – no change ↔

1. Nomadland ↔ (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA

Joshua James Richards

2. Mank ↔ (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA

Erik Messerschmidt

3. Tenet ↔ (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA

Hoyte van Hoytema

4. News of the World ↔ (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 ↔ (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA

Phedon Papamichael

6. Minari ↑ (A24) – BFCA
Lachlan Milne

7. Judas and the Black Messiah ↔ (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist
Sean Bobbitt

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom ↑ (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist

Tobias A. Schliessler

9. One Night in Miami… ↑ (Amazon Studios)
Tami Reiker

10. First Cow ↑ (A24) – BFCA
Christopher Blauvelt

Other Contenders

Da 5 Bloods ↓ (Netflix) – BFCA
Newton Thomas Sigel

The Father ↔ (Sony Pictures Classics)

Ben Smithard

Hillbilly Elegy ↔ (Netflix)

Maryse Alberti

I’m Thinking of Ending Things ↔ (Netflix)
Łukasz Żal

The Midnight Sky ↓ (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Martin Ruhe

Mulan ↔ (Walt Disney Pictures)

Mandy Walker

Promising Young Woman + (Focus Features)
Benjamin Kračun

The White Tiger + (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Paolo Carnera

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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