Mid-Season Emmy Predictions 2014 – Part I: Drama

Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

1. Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
2. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
3. Dean Norris, Breaking Bad
4. Jeffrey Wright, Boardwalk Empire
5. Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
6. Jon Voight, Ray Donovan
7. Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
8. Charles Dance, Game of Thrones
9. Josh Charles, The Good Wife
10. Jeff Perry, Scandal

Previous winners Paul and Dinklage should be set for nominations, while Norris and Wright look likely to replace their deceased co-stars Jonathan Banks and Bobby Cannavale from last year. And Jim Carter has defied expectations twice now, managing to be nominated despite having little more to do than be cranky and stubborn on his show, and like Dockery the first show of the season is rumored to be a strong one for him. I guess it’d be safe to predict him.

After that this category seems to be up for grabs. After his surprising season one snub and somewhat surprising loss last season (he was predicted by 45% of the forum to win), Patinkin appears vulnerable in the event of a Homeland under performancing. So who could replace him? A Game of Thrones actor could always break through, but if anyone does they’ll probably need a flashy moment to make them stand out like Emilia Clarke did last season. Jeff Perry is the kind of flashy scenery chewer that could also break through, but only in a scenario where Scandal over-performs. Josh Charles has received a lot of buzz his his performance on The Good Wife this season including a Golden Globe nomination, but he’s only been nominated once before, so he might not be on the Emmy’s radar. For now I’ll go with Voight for his Ray Donovan performance, who also received a Golden Globe nomination but is the kind of long-time movie vet in a flashy role that they like to nominate.

[divider]Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

1. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
2. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
3. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
4. Emelia Clarke, Game of Thrones
5. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
6. Kate Mulgrew, Orange is the New Black
7. Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
8. Betsy Brandt, Breaking Bad
9. Game of Thrones actress
10. Orange is the New Black actress

Considering the strength of their shows and the popularity of their performances, Gunn, Smith and Baranski should all be locks to be nominated again, and now that Clarke has been nominated she can probably count on returning at least one more time. Hendricks is probably on the cusp, but since she managed a nomination last year despite little in the way of baity material she should be fine.

As for that final slot, it seems likely that if the Emmys find themselves enjoying Orange is the New Black they’ll nominate at least one of the many, many supporting ladies on the show. Best bet right now would be Kate Mulgrew, a long time acting veteran whose role is one of the most prominent and one of the flashiest. There are a number of other actress that could also join her if they go crazy for the show, but a series getting two nominations in the same category in its first season is a rarity. However, Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey and Game of Thrones could all see a second nomination here, depending on if they go Breaking Bad-crazy for its final season and nominate Brandt, want to welcome back Froggatt (a previous nominee) with an apparently-baity storyline for the new season, or if Game of Thrones breaks through and they want to nominate one of its many other supporting ladies.

[author image=”https://scontent-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/1000826_905133195637_1150756764_n.jpg” ]Jonathan Boehle is a contributor to AwardWatch and a moderator of the AW forums.[/author]