Film Editing in never an easy category when one of the Best Picture frontrunners isn’t nominated here but it’s not like it hasn’t happened before.
Looking at the chart below shows just how widespread winners are compared to many categories where a film is able to just run the season. Only once this decade has that happened (2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road) and only once did a non-BP nominee win (2011’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, which is also the only winner in the last 20 years to do that without a BAFTA nomination first, something Parasite doesn’t have). This category is just all over the place.
We all know that BAFTA loves racing movies. Like, really loves them. Both Senna (2011) and Rush (2013) won there without even being Oscar-nominated. Granted, that was before and right when BAFTA changed their voting rules. Baby Driver (2017) won there with an Oscar nomination but lost to Dunkirk, the ACE Drama winner. What separates this season’s BAFTA winner Ford v Ferrari from that group is its Best Picture nomination, one that it earned on the last tread of its tires. So what do we make of FvF‘s inability to win ACE Drama and lose to Parasite? Ford v Ferrari is not in the competition to win Best Picture as most other winners here have been. Was it a fluke or a bellwether of things to come?
ACE Drama has the most correlation to the eventual Oscar winner with five; Critics Choice and BAFTA each have four. With the ACE Comedy winner having never produced the Oscar winner, it seems Jojo Rabbit would have a tough time being a surprise win. Although if it were to win the Oscar, you’ve got a huge Best Picture surprise coming.
Here are my ranked Final Oscar predictions in Film Editing with a chart of a decade of related precursors and history.
|1. Parasite (Neon)||CCA, ACE (Drama)|
|2. Ford v. Ferrari (20th Century Fox)||BAFTA, CCA, ACE (Drama)|
|3. Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight)||ACE (Comedy), BAFTA|
|4. The Irishman (Netflix)||BAFTA, CCA, ACE (Drama)|
|5. Joker (Warner Bros)||ACE (Drama), BAFTA|