1917 or Ford v Ferrari? 1917 and Ford v Ferrari? The Sound categories, editing and mixing, could go a few ways. 1917 will take both, Ford v Ferrari will take both or they’ll split.
Both films scored at MPSE (Motion Picture Sound Editors), confusing things even more. It’s not like when The Revenant won everything leading up to the Oscars only to lose both sound categories to Mad Max: Fury Road. 1917 is the stronger film and there is a growing sense of a sweep happening so it’s more likely that 1917 takes both than FvF pulling it off. Still, I think there will end up being a split that favors the war film in mixing and the race film in editing. The thing that pulls me to FvF in Sound Editing is which MPSE that it won. It got the Effects/Foley prize (the same as American Sniper, Skyfall and Mad Max) so I’m going with it. Anything other than these two films though will be a genuine shock.
Here are my ranked Final Oscar predictions in Sound Editing with a chart of a decade of related precursors and history.
|1. Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)||MPSE (Effects/Foley)|
|2. 1917 (Universal)||MPSE (ADR/Dialogue)|
|3. Joker (Warner Bros)||MPSE (x3)|
|4. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)||MPSE|
|5. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)||MPSE (x3)|
1917 missed out on a Cinema Audio Society (CAS, sound mixing) nomination but pulled out a win with BAFTA’s single sound category over FvF. We know that war films tend to do well here and even Hacksaw Ridge beat out favorite La La Land at the last minute.
In comparing CAS and BAFTA, the last time the CAS winner won the Oscar when BAFTA/CAS split was Dreamgirls (2008). The last time the BAFTA winner won the Oscar when they split was Whiplash, which was also the only film ever to win the Sound Mixing Oscar after missing CAS. In that sense it’s a bit of a risk to predict 1917 but the latter is a new stat that is not only after the change in BAFTA voting but also within Oscar’s expanded lineup change.
Here are my ranked Final Oscar predictions in Sound Mixing with a chart of a decade of related precursors and history.
|1. 1917 (Universal)||BAFTA|
|2. Ford v Ferrari (20th Century Fox)||BAFTA, CAS|
|3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony/Columbia)||CAS|
|4. Joker (Warner Bros)||BAFTA, CAS|
|5. Ad Astra (20th Century Fox)||N/A|