FINAL 2021 Oscar Predictions in all 23 categories plus who I think SHOULD win

No muss, no fuss, just the good stuff.

Here is the complete list of ranked 2021 Oscar winner predictions in all 23 categories plus what I think should win. Click on each category title for the full prediction piece.

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers 

3. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers

4. Minari (A24)
Christina Oh, Producer

5. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers

6. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers

8. Mank (Netflix)
Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers

Should win: Nomadland

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Chloé Zhao for Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
2. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
3. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari (A24)
4. David Fincher for Mank (Netflix)
5. Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer)

Should win: Chloé Zhao for Nomadland

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Anthony Hopkins in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
4. Steven Yeun in Minari (A24)
5. Gary Oldman in Mank (Netflix)

Should win: Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
2. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
3. Frances McDormand in Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu)
5. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

Should win: Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
4. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
5. LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

Should win: Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Yuh-jung Youn in Minari (A24)
2. Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
3. Olivia Colman in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
4. Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios)
5. Amanda Seyfried in Mank (Netflix)

Should win: Yuh-jung Youn in Minari

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao

2. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios)
Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad

4. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Screenplay by Kemp Powers 

5. The White Tiger (Netflix)
Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

Should win: Nomadland

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Written by Emerald Fennell

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Written by Aaron Sorkin

3. Minari (A24)
Written by Lee Isaac Chung

4. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas

Should win: Promising Young Woman

FILM EDITING

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Alan Baumgarten

3. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao

4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Yorgos Lamprinos

5. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Frédéric Thoraval

Should win: The Father

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Sean Bobbitt

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix
Phedon Papamichael

Should win: Nomadland

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton

3. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

Should win: The Father

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ann Roth

2. Emma. (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne

3. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Bina Daigeler

4. Mank (Netflix)
Trish Summerville

5. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions)
Massimo Cantini Parrini

Should win: Emma.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1.  Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson

2. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions)
Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

3. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)
Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney

4. Mank (Netflix)
Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff

5. Emma.(Focus Features)
Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze

Should win: Pinocchio

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar)
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

2. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri

3. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
James Newton Howard

5. Da 5 Bloods  (Netflix)
Terence Blanchard

Should win: Minari

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

2. “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se) (Netflix)
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini

3. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson

4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

5. “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas

Should win: “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

SOUND

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

2. Soul (Walt Disney/Pixar)
Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

3. Greyhound (Apple TV+)
Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman

4. Mank (Netflix)
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

Should win: Soul 

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

2. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins

3. The One and Only Ivan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Ivan Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez

4. Mulan (Disney+)
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram

5. Love and Monsters (Paramount Pictures)
Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox

Should win: Tenet

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar)
Pete Docter and Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon)
Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

3. Onward (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae

4. Over the Moon (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou

5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix)
Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley

Should win: Wolfwalkers

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. My Octopus Teacher (Netflix)
Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster 

2. Time (Amazon Studios)
Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

3. Collective (Magnolia Selects)
Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana

4. Crip Camp (Netflix)
Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder

5. The Mole Agent (Gravitas Ventures)
Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez

Should win: Collective

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark)
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
3. Collective (Romania)
4. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)
5. Better Days (Hong Kong)

Should win: Another Round (Denmark)

ANIMATED SHORT

1. If Anything Happens I Love You
Will McCormack and Michael Govier

2. Burrow
Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat

3. Genius Loci
Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise

4. Opera
Erick Oh

5. Yes-People 
Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

Should win: Opera

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. A Concerto Is a Conversation
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

2. Do Not Split
Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook

3. A Love Song for Latasha
Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

4. Colette
Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard

5. Hunger Ward
Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman

Should win: Do Not Split

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Feeling Through
Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski

2. Two Distant Strangers
Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe

3. The Present
Farah Nabulsi

4. White Eye
Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

5. The Letter Room
Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan

Should win: White Eye

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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