FINAL 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions: 2025 BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR

It’s probably fair to say that after all of the nominations and precursors we have that we all likely have the same top seven films we think are getting into the Best Picture 10: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, The Substance. From there, we’re looking at four films eyeing three spots: Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, September 5 and Sing Sing.
Although I don’t consider the AFI Top 10 a precursor the same way that BAFTA or PGA are, a group that consistently skews very close to Oscar’s top 10 or PGA’s top 10 is still a good barometer for how the Academy choices may look. You can look at the predictions and color charts below to see how these groups align. For the graphic, I usually list each group alphabetically but for Best Picture, I’ve moved both BAFTA and SAG to the right as they have only five spots vs the ten for AFI, PGA and Critics Choice and twelve for the Golden Globes. It’s just a cleaner visual.
Essentially, the Best Picture 10 could look like either AFI, PGA or Critics Choice but only once, last year, has PGA and Oscar aligned 10/10. While it’s possible this year, and September 5 somehow sneaks in with its sole Globe nod in Best Picture, PGA nod and zero presence at BAFTA or in major CCA categories. It would be a passion vote. In fact, these last three spots are the best example of how passion votes in the top 10 system at the Oscars work. Nickel Boys could be a lone screenplay nominee, or it could land BP and screenplay, similar to Women Talking a few years ago (another MGM/Orion film, but that did land a SAG cast nomination). Sing Sing has a sure bet in Best Actor for Colman Domingo, a likely/possible screenplay spot and Gotham winner and first-time actor Clarence Maclin on the cusp in Supporting Actor. Had the film earned a SAG cast nomination it would be a much easier call. A Real Pain has a virtual acting winner lock in Kieran Culkin and competitive win in original screenplay.
A Real Pain feels like the easiest call for the #9 spot. For #10, I’m going with Nickel Boys, backed by respected Oscar-winning producers from Plan B (Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave) Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner.
For Best Director, going with the DGA five of Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) makes a lot of sense. It looks like an Oscar five. But the Academy’s directing branch and the DGA just don’t go 5/5, they carve their own paths. But we’re also looking at – barring a shocking inclusion of Denis Villeneuve – the first all first-timer lineup since 1997. Even if you think Mangold is the odd man out here, even in the face of the incredible guild run A Complete Unknown managed, his nearest replacements would still be among multiple first-timers, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, Payal Kapadia for All We Imagine as Light or Jon M. Chu for Wicked. I think we can nix Chu here, who would have made more sense as the DGA pick that misses Oscar. Ross and Kapadia both hit the DGA First-Time Director category but in obviously weak films in terms of other categories. That leaves the door open for Fargeat, who would join a still elite group of women nominated for Best Director at the Oscars. I can see the branch vibing with how far she goes with The Substance, but it’s also the very thing that could keep some of the more traditional voters at bay. I think it’s down to Mangold or Fargeat and as many times as I, we, have been burned by thinking that the directing branch will more consistently nominate women and then don’t, I’m going with her anyway, instincts be damned for a minute. But, if they nominate Mangold (who feels like a previous directing nominee), I won’t be surprised.
Here are my final 2025 Oscar nomination predictions for Best Picture and Best Director. See below for all 23 categories.
BEST PICTURE
1. Conclave (Focus Features) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG |
2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) AFI, BAFTA, Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG, PGA, SAG |
3. Anora (NEON) AFI, BAFTA, Cannes (Palme d’Or), CCA, GG, Gotham, PGA, Spirit, SAG |
4. The Brutalist (A24) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA |
5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) AFI, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG |
6. Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) AFI, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG |
7. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) AFI, CCA, GG, PGA |
8. The Substance (MUBI) CCA, EFA, GG, PGA, Spirit |
9. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) AFI, GG, NBR, PGA |
10. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) AFI, CCA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
11. Sing Sing (A24) AFI, CCA, Spirit |
12. September 5 (Paramount Pictures) GG, PGA |
13. Nosferatu (Focus Features) |
14. Challengers (Amazon MGM) GG |
15. I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) |

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Brady Corbet – The Brutalist (A24) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG, Spirit, Venice (Silver Lion) |
2. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, EFA, GG |
3. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG |
4. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON) BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG, Gotham, Spirit |
5. Coralie Fargeat – The Substance (MUBI) BAFTA, CCA, GG |
6. James Mangold – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) DGA |
7. Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) BAFTA, CCA |
8. RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) CCA, Gotham |
9. Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light (Janus/Sideshow) GG |
10. Jon M. Chu – Wicked (Universal Pictures) CCA |

BEST ACTOR
1. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
2. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24) BAFTA, Gotham, CCA, GG, SAG |
3. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24) BAFTA, Gotham, CCA, GG, Spirit, SAG |
4. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features) BAFTA, EFA, CCA, GG, SAG |
5. Daniel Craig – Queer (A24) EFA, CCA, GG, SAG |
BEST ACTRESS
1. Demi Moore – The Substance (MUBI) BAFTA, CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG, Spirit |
2. Mikey Madison – Anora (NEON) BAFTA, CCA, GG, Gotham, SAG, Spirit |
3. Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) BAFTA, Cannes, CCA EFA, GG, SAG |
4. Cynthia Erivo – Wicked Part 1 (Universal Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
5. Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) GG |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, GG, SAG |
2. Yura Borisov – Anora (NEON) BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, GG, SAG |
3. Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
4. Guy Pearce – The Brutalist (A24) BAFTA, CCA, Gotham, GG |
5. Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment) BAFTA, GG, SAG |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) BAFTA, CCA, GG, Cannes (Best Actress), SAG |
2. Ariana Grande-Butera – Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG |
3. Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (Focus Features) BAFTA, CCA, GG |
4. Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl (Roadside Attractions) BAFTA, SAG |
5. Felicity Jones – The Brutalist (A24) BAFTA, GG |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Conclave (Focus Features) Peter Straughan (based on “Conclave” by Robert Harris) | BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC |
2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Jacques Audiard (based on “Listen” by Boris Razon) | BAFTA, CCA, EFA, GG |
3. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM/Orion) RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes (based on “The Nickel Boys” by Colson Whitehead) | BAFTA, CCA, WGA, USC |
4. Sing Sing (A24) Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield (based on “The Sing Sing Follies” by John H. Richardson and “Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code” by Brent Buell) | BAFTA, CCA, USC |
5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) Jay Cocks, James Mangold (based on “Dylan Goes Electric!” by Elijah Wald | BAFTA, WGA, USC |
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) Jesse Eisenberg | BAFTA, CCA, GG, Sundance, WGA |
2. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | BAFTA, CCA, GG, WGA |
3. The Brutalist (A24) Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
4. The Substance (MUBI) Coralie Fargeat | BAFTA, Cannes, CCA, GG, EFA |
5. September 5 (Paramount Pictures) Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum | CCA |
FILM EDITING
1. Conclave (Focus Features) Nick Emerson | ACE, BAFTA, CCA |
2. Anora (NEON) Sean Baker | ACE, BAFTA, CCA |
3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Juliette Welfling | ACE, BAFTA |
4. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Joe Walker | ACE, BAFTA, CCA |
5. Challengers (Amazon MGM) Marco Costa | ACE, CCA |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Brutalist (A24) Lol Crawley | ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA |
2. Conclave (Focus Features) Stéphane Fontaine | ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA |
3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Jarin Blaschke | ASC, BAFTA, BSC, CCA |
4. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) Phedon Papamichael | ASC |
5. Maria (Netflix) Edward Lachman | ASC |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Nathan Crowley | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
2. The Brutalist (A24) Judy Becker | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
3. Conclave (Focus Features) Suzie Davies | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
4. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Craig Lathrop | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) Patrice Vermette | ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA |
COSTUME DESIGN
1. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) Paul Tazewell | BAFTA, CCA, CDG |
2. Conclave (Focus Features) Lisy Christi | BAFTA, CCA, CDG |
3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) Linda Muir | BAFTA, CCA, CDG |
4. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) Janty Yates | CCA, CDG |
5. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) Arianne Phillips | BAFTA |
ORIGINAL SCORE
1. Conclave (Focus Features) Volker Bertelmann | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL |
2. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) Clément Ducol and Camille | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
3. The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) Kris Bowers | BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
4. The Brutalist (A24) Daniel Blumberg | BAFTA, CCA, GG, SCL |
5. Challengers (Amazon MGM) Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross | CCA, GG, HMMA (main) |
ORIGINAL SONG
1. “El Mal” by Clement Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
2. “Kiss the Sky” by Delacey, Jordan Johnson, Stefan Johnson, Maren Morris, Michael Pollack & Ali Tamposi from The Wild Robot (Universal Pictures/Dreamworks Animation) | CCA, GG, HMMA (animated), SCL |
3. “Mi Camino” by Clement Ducol and Camille from Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
4. “Compress/Repress” by Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross & Luca Guadagnino from Challengers (Amazon MGM) | CCA, GG, HMMA (main), SCL |
5. “The Journey” by Diane Warren from The Six Triple Eight (Netflix) | HMMA (main), SCL |
SOUND
1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) | AMPS, BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3) |
2. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) | AMPS, CAS, MPSE (x2) |
3. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | AMPS, BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x2) |
4. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | MPSE (x2) |
5. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | BAFTA, CAS |
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
1. The Substance (MUBI) | BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (x3) |
2. Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) | BAFTA, CCA, MUAH (x2) |
3. Nosferatu (Focus Features) | BAFTA, CCA |
4. A Different Man (A24) | CCA, MUAH |
5. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA |
VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Dune: Part Two (Warner Bros) | BAFTA, CCA, VES |
2. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) | BAFTA, CCA |
3. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (20th Century Studios) | Annie, BAFTA, CCA, VES |
4. Better Man (Paramount Pictures) | Annie, BAFTA, CCA, VES |
5. Wicked (Universal Pictures) | BAFTA, CCA |
ANIMATED FEATURE
1. The Wild Robot (Dreamworks/Universal) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
2. Flow (Janus Films/Sideshow) | BAFTA, CCA, EFA, GG |
3. Inside Out 2 (Walt Disney/Pixar) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (Aardman/Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
5. Memoir of a Snail (IFC Films) | CCA, GG |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. No Other Land (No U.S. distribution) | BAFTA, Berlinale Documentary Award – Berlin, CEH, EFA, Gotham, IDA |
2. Daughters (Netflix) | BAFTA, CCA, CEH, DGA |
3. Porcelain War (Picturehouse) | CEH, DGA, PGA, Sundance |
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (Kino Lorber) | CCA, DGA, EFA, Gotham, IDA |
5. Sugarcane (National Geographic Documentary Films) | CEH, DGA, IDA |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
1. France – Emilia Pérez (Netflix) | BAFTA, Cannes (Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
2. Brazil – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics) | BAFTA, CCA, GG |
3. Germany – The Seed of the Sacred Fig (NEON) | BAFTA, Cannes (Special Jury Prize), CCA, EFA, GG |
4. Denmark – The Girl with the Needle (MUBI) | GG |
5. Ireland – Kneecap (Sony Pictures Classics) | BAFTA, CCA |
ANIMATED SHORT
1. Beautiful Men | Annie |
2. A Bear Named Wojtek | |
3. Wander to Wonder | Annie |
4. In the Shadow of the Cypress | Annie |
5. Yuck! |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1. I Am Ready, Warden |
2. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine |
3. Incident |
4. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter To The World |
5. The Only Girl in the Orchestra |
LIVE ACTION SHORT
1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent |
2. An Orange from Jaffa |
3. Dovecote |
4. Anuja |
5. The Masterpiece |
- 31st Screen Actors Guild Awards: David Chang Tapped as Executive Chef; Rashida “SHEEDZ” Olayiwola and Louis Virtel Named Head Writers - February 7, 2025
- Frontrunner Friday 2025 Oscar Predictions: We Need to Talk About Karla - February 7, 2025
- Advanced Imaging Society 15th Lumiere Awards: ‘Dune: Part Two,’ ‘Wicked’ and ‘The Wild Robot’ Take Top Honors in Film - February 7, 2025