2025 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist Predicts the Nominees in All 23 Categories

For those who eagerly forecast the Oscar race, this is the most thrilling time of the year. Predicting the winners is enjoyable in its own right, but by the time Oscar night rolls around, the precursor awards often leave little doubt about who will take home the trophy. Many categories feel like they’re already decided long before the ceremony. For me, the true challenge lies in predicting the nominees themselves. While the precursor awards help identify the frontrunners, the real excitement comes from determining which films will secure those elusive fourth and fifth spots – the areas where things get uncertain and much more intriguing. And this year, there’s no shortage of those unpredictable moments.
So, how do I navigate this complex process?
I’ve mentioned this previously, but for the sake of this article, let me reiterate that my approach is built on three main pillars:
- Data Analysis – Using historical trends and statistical patterns to spot connections we might not otherwise notice.
- Cultural Zeitgeist – Understanding how the nominations and wins reflect the current cultural moment.
- Gut Instinct – Relying on intuition honed through years of watching and predicting the Oscars.
Data analysis involves using large datasets to improve the accuracy of predictions and minimize errors caused by outliers. Predictive analytics helps forecast future outcomes based on historical data, and by identifying trends, it can lead to better conclusions. A notable example is how Production Design has influenced the Visual Effects race, with 20 out of the last 24 winners in Visual Effects also nominated for Art Direction/Production Design. While data analysis reveals trends that aid in reactive predictions, it has limitations in making proactive decisions, which requires additional steps in the process.
Cultural zeitgeist refers to the general beliefs, ideas, and spirit of a particular time and place, and it plays a significant role in how the Oscars reflect the era we live in. For example, Nomadland resonated with post-Trump America, addressing themes relevant to older demographics feeling left behind by society. Similarly, Moonlight captured the cultural moment of the 2016 election year, representing the mood of the liberal left at that time. Oscar pundits should consider what film reflects the current moment, especially as the industry continues to grapple with issues of diversity and change. For this reason, I have been predicting – and stuck with – Conclave as the Best Picture frontrunner since March.
Gut instinct plays a crucial role in Oscar predictions, especially when the data and precursors don’t provide a clear path. It’s the intuition that encourages you to take a risk on an unconventional choice. Agatha Christie said “Instinct is a marvelous thing. It can neither be explained nor ignored.” This intuition is often what sets your predictions apart from others. For example, in 2007, by trusting my gut, I correctly predicted Tilda Swinton’s win for Michael Clayton and Marion Cotillard’s win for La Vie en Rose, despite many experts favoring other nominees. Seventeen years later, I still take pride in those predictions.
Though these methods may sound straightforward, I assure you they are far from simple. If it were that easy, we’d all be perfect at this game. There will always be some nominations that surprise everyone, and predicting them is nearly impossible. My approach to the Oscar race is to minimize risk, especially when it comes to the major categories. For instance, I tend to stick closely to the nominations from the Producers Guild of America (PGA), Directors Guild of America (DGA), and Screen Actors Guild (SAG). These organizations’ memberships overlap significantly with those of AMPAS voters, providing a reliable preview of what might be in store.
When it comes to the more technical categories, though, that’s where I’m willing to take a few more chances.
I prefer to categorize the chances of nominations in Best Picture into distinct tiers. This approach allows for a clear visual prioritization of the strongest contenders, while distinguishing them from those with less potential. It also acknowledges that not all candidates share the same likelihood. A tier system simplifies complex predictions, making the process both more manageable and nuanced.
Savvy? Let’s go.
PICTURE
The “Big Board” (above) is something I tweet whenever a major guild or awards body weighs in. It helps provide a clearer picture of the level of support each contender is receiving. Memberships in guilds and BAFTA overlap with the Academy (AMPAS), while groups like Critics Choice (CCA), Golden Globes, the American Film Institute (AFI), and the National Board of Review (NBR) play an early role in guiding voters to prioritize certain films on their screener lists. I update the board whenever the cited organization weighs in on a film in their highest race (example – SAG Ensemble gets highlighted, SAG individual categories do not).
The gold section refers to the guilds, which are key in understanding the race. Here’s a breakdown of the major ones:
- Producers (PGA)
- Directors (DGA)
- Actors (SAG)
- Editors (ACE)
- Writers (WGA)
- Production Designers (ADG)
- Set Designers (SDSA)
- Cinematographers (ASC)
- Sound Mixers (CAS)
- Sound Editors (MPSE)
- Association of Motion Picture Sound (AMPS)
- Visual Effects (VES)
- Costume Designers (CDG)
- Composers and Lyricists (SC&L)
- Casting Directors (CSA)
- Makeup and Hair Stylists (MUAH)
When it comes to Best Picture, the PGA is the most influential. This is primarily because the PGA uses the same preferential voting system for Best Picture as the Academy does. Over the past 14 years, 118 out of 135 Oscar Best Picture nominees (87.4%) were preceded by a PGA nomination. In fact, last year marked the first time in history that the PGA and the Oscars matched 10/10 in Best Picture nominations.
Last year was unusually easy to predict, with Oppenheimer sweeping major awards (CCA, BAFTA, Globes, SAG, DGA, and PGA) like Argo in 2012. This year, however, no clear frontrunner has emerged, making predictions trickier.
Tier One: The absolute locks – PGA, DGA, SAG, ACE, BAFTA, CCA, Globes, AFI
1. Conclave
2. Emilia Pérez
3. Anora
Tier Two: The pretty damn locked
4. The Brutalist
5. A Complete Unknown
6. Wicked
The Brualist missed SAG Ensemble and ACE.
A Complete Unknown and Wicked both missed in some key areas with Globes and CCA. A Complete Unknown landed with Picture and Screenplay noms at BAFTA, where Wicked only made the longlists in those two categories. Neither were on the longlist for Director. Wicked also missed DGA.
These three still have many of the key indicators of a Best Picture nominee, but it would be wrong to not separate them from the top group.
Tier Three: I’d bet on it
7. The Substance
8. Dune: Part Two
Both these films hit PGA and ACE, and showed up well with Globes, CCA, and BAFTA. They both nabbed Director nominations, while The Substance also received a nomination for Screenplay (Dune was on the longlist). While The Substance had a stronger showing with precursors, Dune was listed by AFI. They both feel safe enough in this range to predict.
Tier Four: Last ones in
9. A Real Pain
10. September 5
These two have missed some very important precursors along the way. Both landed with PGA, but neither received SAG or DGA, nor did they do incredibly well with the BAFTA longlists.
A Real Pain didn’t fare so well with CCA in the big categories (missing Picture and Director).
September 5 missed AFI, NBR, and was completely shut out of the main categories with BAFTA and Globes, and only showed up in Screenplay for CCA (missing Picture and Director).
While neither of those two films showed up incredibly well on precursors, A Real Pain has a likely Supporting Actor win (Kieran Culkin) in its favor, while September 5 is the type of film that could garner plenty of passion votes to help it on the preferential ballot.
I could see both missing, but the question is: in favor of what?
The films that just missed have more than one Achilles heel to them. Sing Sing, Nickel Boys, Challengers, Nosferatu, All We Imagine As Light, Gladiator II, and The Apprentice feel like the most likely to surprise. But what indicators do we have that they are strong? Sing Sing is the strongest on paper, with only BAFTA for Screenplay, CCA Picture and Screenplay, and AFI and NBR mentions.
In the end, I opted for the easier route and bet on the PGA ten. But is it really the easy choice? As mentioned, last year marked the first time they paired ten-for-ten. Pulling it off in back-to-back years would be a longshot.
The rest of the categories
I believe it’s essential to start with Best Picture, as the nominees in every other category should help shape the narrative of the race for the top prize. Let’s go through each category in order, beginning with the ones I find easiest to predict, while weighing the safe bets against the tougher choices. Throughout, you’ll notice frequent references to the preferential ballot era (2009-present). Given how much has changed since then, I prefer to focus on this period when analyzing recent trends.
ANIMATED FEATURE
This seems to be the most predictable race. It feels like the same five films have been nominated and awarded by virtually every major organization and regional critics group, leading to a true consensus. It’s the one category where most are not second-guessing their fourth or fifth spots. But could we all be wrong?
Where I struggled:
Could Moana 2 sneak in? It’s possible. The Disney contingent in the Academy is sizable, and with no other major Disney film in the running (aside from Pixar’s Inside Out 2), they could rally behind Moana 2 and push out Memoir of a Snail. That’s certainly within the realm of possibility. In the 23-year history of the category, 14 Disney and/or Pixar films have won, underscoring their influence.
Moana 2 and Memoir of a Snail both made the BAFTA longlist and received a Globe nomination. While Moana 2 didn’t secure a nomination for the main prize at the Annies, it did perform well with the guilds, earning nominations from the PGA, VES, ADG, ACE, CAS, and CSA. That’s more guild support than Flow, Wallace, and Memoir received.
It might seem weird to think that Goliath (Disney) is the underdog to David (IFC Films), but here we are.
My predictions:
- The Wild Robot
- Flow
- Inside Out 2
- Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- Moana 2
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Three actors have secured nominations from the big four precursors for acting – the individual SAG, CCA, BAFTA, and Golden Globes: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Yura Borisov (Anora). Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) only missed out with SAG, while Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) was excluded by CCA.
Where I struggled:
One of the most compelling stories of the 2024 film year has been Clarence Maclin, the former inmate-turned-actor who plays himself in Sing Sing. He earned nominations from both CCA and BAFTA, making it tough to leave him off the list – especially with his co-star, Colman Domingo, included in my Lead Actor predictions. But similar dilemmas arise with Pearce (Brody), Norton (Chalamet), and Strong (Stan).
Then there’s the case for two-time Oscar-winner Denzel Washington (Gladiator II). For much of the year, he seemed like a surefire pick for this category. However, after missing nominations from SAG and BAFTA and with his film not performing as strongly as some others, predicting him now feels much less certain.
Could there be an unexpected nomination in the mix? If so, might Stanley Tucci secure a spot for Conclave, the front-runner I’ve been championing since March?
My predictions:
- Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
- Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
- Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
- Yura Borisov (Anora)
- Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
PRODUCTION DESIGN
For Production Design, we have nominations from ADG, SDSA, BAFTA, and CCA, and wouldn’t you know it – five films have earned nominations across all four precursors: Wicked, Dune: Part Two, The Brutalist, Nosferatu, and Conclave. This might seem like a straightforward prediction, right?
Where I struggled:
Arthur Max and Elli Griff essentially recreated ancient Rome – including the massive Colosseum – in Gladiator II. While they missed BAFTA, they did make the longlist, which still gives them a strong chance.
François Audouy, Regina Graves, and Christopher J. Morris for A Complete Unknown earned nominations from ADG and SDSA, plus a spot on the BAFTA longlist. Mark Scruton and Lori Mazuer received similar recognition for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice.
Several other films also earned nominations from both ADG and SDSA, including Emilia Pérez, The Substance, and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. With so many contenders missing just one or two major precursors, this category might be more competitive than it initially seems.
My predictions:
- Wicked
- Dune: Part Two
- The Brutalist
- Nosferatu
- Conclave
DIRECTOR
The DGA nominated Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), Edward Berger (Conclave), Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown). While these five might be your best bet, history shows that at least one or two DGA nominees often miss out on an Oscar nomination. Over the last 15 years (the preferential ballot era), four of the DGA-nominated directors have gone on to receive an Oscar nomination a total of 11 times. Twice, the overlap was three nominees. The lowest crossover occurred in 2012, when Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), and Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) were all nominated by the DGA but missed out on Oscar. Only once in this 15-year period have all five DGA nominees translated to Oscar nominations (in 2009).
So, the key is figuring out who might miss out. And the real challenge is identifying who could replace them. In many instances, a non-American director has taken the place of one of the DGA nominees. Directors like Michael Haneke (Amour), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car), Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), and Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) are among the international filmmakers who earned Oscar nominations despite being overlooked by the DGA. In the past six years alone, nine directors from international features have been nominated for Best Director – that’s more than in the first 40 years of the Academy Awards.
It seems most likely that James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) will be the DGA nom to miss out with Oscar. The other four DGA nominees – Brady Corbet, Edward Berger, Jacques Audiard, and Sean Baker – have received Best Director nominations from the Globes, CCA, and BAFTA. Mangold, however, missed all three. While his precursor track record is weaker than the rest of the DGA field, his film appears to be gaining momentum at just the right time.
Where I struggled:
If I’m predicting Mangold will miss, then I have to consider the possibility of an international director making the cut. I also have to factor in the Academy’s ongoing efforts toward diversity and inclusion. Three of the last four years have seen a woman nominated for Best Director, with four women total in that period. One name standing out is Coralie Fargeat (The Substance). If nominated, she would become the tenth woman ever nominated for Best Director. While she missed out on a DGA nomination, she did make the same Globe, CCA, and BAFTA cut as the other four directors.
There’s also the potential for a surprise nominee, such as Jon M. Chu (Wicked) or one of the First-Time Director DGA nominees like Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine As Light) or RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys). These candidates could certainly shake up the field.
My predictions:
- Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
- Edward Berger (Conclave)
- Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
- Sean Baker (Anora)
- Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
LEAD ACTOR
Since October, most awards pundits have been predicting the same four actors for Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing). The real challenge has been determining who will fill that elusive fifth spot.
Daniel Craig (Queer) appears to be in the best position, having earned nominations from SAG, the Globes, CCA, and the BAFTA longlist. He also won the National Board of Review’s Best Actor award. It’s tough to argue against that track record, especially when you factor in the career narrative. Craig, widely regarded as one of the best James Bonds of all time, has never been nominated by the Academy – making this year feel like the perfect moment for him to finally break through.
Where I struggled:
For those backing Sebastian Stan, it’s a tricky situation. He had an exceptional year with performances in The Apprentice and A Different Man, but his support could split between the two films. Stan was nominated at BAFTA and the Globes for The Apprentice, while winning the Globe for Lead Actor in a Comedy/Musical for A Different Man. However, neither film has strong Best Picture prospects, which makes predicting his nomination more complicated. So, if you’re backing Stan, which of his performances do you choose?
Hugh Grant (Heretic) also emerges as a longshot for that fifth spot. While he missed a SAG nomination, he earned nods from the Globes, CCA and BAFTA, making him a potential contender – though still a pretty significant underdog.
My predictions:
- Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
- Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
- Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
- Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
- Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The WGA may be one of the least reliable precursors in the awards circuit. Each year, a number of high-profile contenders are deemed ineligible for their awards, and the films that fill these vacancies often feel more like distractions than legitimate contenders. The one thing the WGA can help with in terms of Oscar forecasting is identifying potential trouble spots. If a film was eligible for their award but still didn’t receive a nomination, it’s a clear sign that something might be wrong.
So what do we have here to light the way?
For starters, we have BAFTA, CCA, the Globes, and, in Adapted Screenplay, the USC Scripter. Over the past 16 years, the winner of the USC Scripter has gone on to win the Academy Award for Adapted Screenplay in 11 of those years. While this trend will be more useful in the second phase of forecasting, it’s still a positive indicator when a film receives a Scripter nomination. Unfortunately, the USC Scripter nominations will be announced after this post goes live, so I’ll be moving forward without that information.
Looking at the relationship between Best Picture and Screenplay, in the past 19 years, 15 of the Best Picture winners also took home the Screenplay Oscar. The exceptions – The Artist, The Shape of Water, Nomadland, and Oppenheimer – did not win in Screenplay. This trend is more relevant to phase two, but it underscores the tight connection between the two categories.
In the era of the preferential ballot, 110 of the 136 films nominated for Best Picture also received Screenplay nominations (80.8%). This makes it a safe bet to predict that many of the films vying for Picture will also land in the Screenplay categories. However, it’s wise to include a few films that aren’t necessarily in the Best Picture race but might still make a mark in Screenplay.
Conclave and Emilia Pérez have garnered nominations from BAFTA, CCA, and the Globes, and would likely have been contenders at the WGA had they not been ruled ineligible. A Complete Unknown earned nods from BAFTA and WGA, but missed out on CCA and the Globes, possibly due to its late release. These films are the strongest contenders in the Adapted Screenplay race.
Where I struggled:
Dune: Part Two could secure a screenplay nomination. It’s an incredibly difficult work to adapt, and the first film managed to earn a Screenplay nomination, showing its potential. Dune: Part Two has already received nominations from the WGA and CCA, and it made the BAFTA longlist.
Wicked follows a similar path, though without the support of CCA.
Where it gets hard is predicting the films that don’t overlap with Picture noms. Nickel Boys hit BAFTA, CCA, and WGA. Sing Sing landed noms from BAFTA and CCA, and won NBR. Sing Sing was ineligible for WGA. These two ended up just outside my Picture predictions, so this seems like a good place for them to show up.
What’s trickier to predict are the films that don’t overlap with the Best Picture nominees. Nickel Boys received nominations from BAFTA, CCA, and WGA. Sing Sing earned nods from BAFTA and CCA, and won the NBR. However, Sing Sing was ineligible for WGA. Both of these films are just outside my Best Picture predictions, so they’re more likely to show up here in Screenplay than something like The Room Next Door or Nosferatu, which missed with every major precursor.
My predictions:
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- A Complete Unknown
- Nickel Boys
- Sing Sing
MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING
One of the reasons Makeup and Hairstyling is a little simpler to predict is the Academy provides shortlists for a few categories. They have graciously narrowed the field down to ten films. That gives a blind man a 50/50 shot with each prediction.
I’m pretty set on my first three here. The Substance and Wicked both received the high precursor nominations of MUAH, CCA, and BAFTA. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice hit with MUAH, CCA, and made the BAFTA longlist.
Where I struggled:
A Different Man missed the BAFTA longlist but was nominated by CCA and MUAH; Emilia Pérez missed CCA but was nominated by MUAH and BAFTA; and Nosferatu and Dune: Part Two missed MUAH but landed with BAFTA and CCA. The Apprentice missed both CCA and MUAH, but made the BAFTA longlist, while Maria and Waltzing with Brando missed all the above.
Setting Maria and Brando aside, which two films round out the five here? Emilia Pérez stands out as the most undeniable of the group, as it is the only of these four to be a lock for a Picture nomination. The strength of BAFTA/MUAH is the best combo, as well. Like A Complete Unknown, Nosferatu seems to be peaking at just the right time. I’ll go with those two in a challenging decision.
My predictions:
- The Substance
- Wicked
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
- Nosferatu
- A Different Man
SOUND
Much like Makeup, Sound has been narrowed down to ten contenders, which makes the race a bit more manageable. Dune: Part Two and Wicked are the clear frontrunners here. Both films received nominations from the major sound guilds (MPSE, CAS, and AMPS) as well as BAFTA. A Complete Unknown stands out as the only other contender to secure nominations from all three guilds and make the BAFTA longlist.
Where I struggled:
After that, things become more uncertain. Emilia Pérez earned a nomination from MPSE and made the BAFTA longlist. Gladiator garnered a CAS nomination and a BAFTA nod. Wolverine received recognition from both CAS and MPSE. Blitz made the BAFTA longlist. Alien: Romulus picked up an MPSE nomination. As for The Wild Robot and Joker: Folie à Deux, they don’t appear to have a strong chance.
Since the Sound category merged Mixing and Editing in 2020, finding a consistent overlap with other categories has been challenging. While you might expect overlap with Visual Effects (40%), Editing (30%), or Original Score (35%), these categories share fewer than 50% of the same nominees. However, Picture is a useful tiebreaker. Over the past four years, 65% of Sound nominees have been from films also nominated for Best Picture. It’s not definitive, but it’s a helpful trend.
Musicals and films with heavy musical elements also tend to perform well in Sound, as evidenced by Soul, Sound of Metal, West Side Story, Elvis, and Maestro, all of which earned Sound nominations.
Emilia Pérez ticks both of these boxes.
As for the final spot, it really comes down to a gut feeling.
My predictions:
- Dune: Part Two
- Wicked
- A Complete Unknown
- Emilia Pérez
- Gladiator II
VISUAL EFFECTS
You guessed it – the Visual Effects category has also been narrowed down to ten contenders on the Oscar shortlist. This explains why the recent categories we’ve looked at might be considered easier to predict, even though there are still some significant question marks.
VES, BAFTA, and CCA are the top indicators of success in Visual Effects, and three films have captured nominations across all three: Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and Better Man.
Both Wicked and Gladiator II missed out on the main VES categories but earned BAFTA and CCA nods. Alien: Romulus made the BAFTA longlist, while Twisters and Mufasa: The Lion King were only recognized by VES. Civil War received mentions from both VES and the BAFTA longlist, while Deadpool & Wolverine made the BAFTA longlist as well.
Considering the approach I’ve outlined, where tie-breakers tend to favor strong Best Picture contenders, I feel like I might be missing the boat by not predicting Wicked.
Where I struggled:
So, what takes the final two spots? I’m torn between Wicked, Gladiator II and Deadpool & Wolverine. The strength of Gladiator II lies in its elaborate and visually stunning recreation of ancient Rome – a hard feat to overlook.
AMPAS has a clear fondness for Marvel films in this category. Over the past twenty years, sixteen Marvel movies have been nominated for Visual Effects, with Spider-Man 2 being the only winner (2004). That bodes well for Deadpool & Wolverine to sneak in.
It’s possible Gladiator II and Deadpool & Wolverine both land a nomination, potentially pushing out Wicked, which is where I landed.
My predictions:
- Dune: Part Two
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Better Man
- Gladiator II
- Deadpool & Wolverine
FILM EDITING
I feel confident about predicting four of the five spots in this category. Conclave, Dune: Part Two, and Anora all received Editing nominations from ACE, BAFTA, and CCA. Emilia Perez missed only at CCA. All four are also projected Best Picture nominees.
Over the past fifteen years, there have been eleven instances where all five Editing nominees were also nominated for Best Picture. In total, 70 out of 75 films nominated for Editing during this period (93%) also earned a Best Picture nomination.
Where I struggled:
So, what about another potential Best Picture nominee that performed well in the Editing precursors?
The Substance earned an ACE nomination and made the BAFTA longlist. The Brutalist and September 5 received CCA nods, and Wicked was recognized by ACE.
While Challengers and Civil War are unlikely Best Picture nominees, both made the ACE and BAFTA longlists, which could indicate a four-for-five overlap this year.
A sleeper film across several categories is A Complete Unknown. Though it only made the BAFTA longlist for Editing, some of its misses can be attributed to its late release date. Given the film’s strong surge later in the precursor season, we may need to reconsider its underwhelming showing in the Editing precursors.
My predictions:
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Anora
- Emilia Pérez
- September 5
ORIGINAL SCORE
The Score category is another that has been narrowed down by the Academy to just twenty nominees (unlike the ten nominees in the other categories I’ve discussed). While this does slightly refine the field, it doesn’t help much, especially since there are typically only around ten real contenders in each category to begin with.
Over the past 15 years, we’ve seen three or four Score nominees come from the Best Picture contenders in 12 of those years. In that period, there were only two years with just two Picture nominees (2018 and 2020), and one year with just one (2015). In total, 61% of Score nominees came from Best Picture nominees during this time. While this statistic isn’t definitive, it does continue the suggestion that being a Picture nominee improves your chances of being recognized in a particular craft. It will matter even more when we start looking at predicting the winners – 21 of the last 24 Score winners have been nominated for Picture (Frida, 2002, The Hateful Eight, 2015, and Soul, 2020, were the exceptions).
The four main precursors here are BAFTA, CCA, Globes, and SCL – the Society of Composers and Lyricists guild. The Brutalist, Conclave, The Wild Robot, and Emilia Pérez are the only four to receive the quartet of nominations.
Where I struggled:
While I could see Gladiator or Wicked rounding out the five, I lean more towards something more outside the Best Picture lineup for this spot. Something like Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’ heart-pumping score for Challengers or Robin Carolan’s eerily haunting Nosferatu themes. The former was nominated by SCL and CCA, won the Globe, but missed out with BAFTA. The latter hit with BAFTA and missed the other three, but is a film more heavily being recognized by other guilds and probably stands an outside shot at a Picture nom.
My predictions:
- Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
- Volker Bertelmann (Conclave)
- Kris Bowers (The Wild Robot)
- Clément Ducol and Camille (Emilia Pérez)
- Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Challengers)
COSTUME DESIGN
Wicked, Nosferatu, and Conclave are your strongest bets for this category, each securing nominations from CDG, BAFTA, and CCA. While Wicked and Nosferatu feel slightly safer than Conclave, if you have those three and you’re a frontrunner for Best Picture, it’s hard to argue against it.
This would mark Paul Tazewell’s second nomination for Wicked, Lisy Christl’s second for Conclave, and Linda Muir’s first for Nosferatu.
Where I struggled:
Gladiator II missed BAFTA but appeared on their longlist. Janty Yates, the film’s costume designer, has been nominated twice before, winning for the original Gladiator. With its ornate tunics, embroidered silken gowns, and finely crafted battle gear, the film certainly showcases her expertise.
Then there’s the legendary Colleen Atwood, who designed the costumes for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and received nominations from CDG and the BAFTA longlist. A 12-time nominee and 4-time winner, Atwood’s absence from recent nominations (seven years since her last) may fuel the sense that she’s due for another nod.
Other notable contenders include A Complete Unknown (BAFTA), Dune: Part Two (CDG, BAFTA longlist), Blitz (BAFTA), Maria (CDG, CCA), and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (CDG, BAFTA longlist).
Arianne Phillips, who designed costumes for A Complete Unknown, is a three-time nominee. The film’s late release might explain its lack of precursor recognition. Phillips’ previous work on Walk the Line – a film with a similar period setting – earned her an Oscar nomination.
Jacqueline West, nominated five times, including for the first Dune, is behind the costumes for Dune: Part Two. Jacqueline Durran, another legendary designer, has received nine nominations, winning for Anna Karenina (2013) and Little Women (2020), and now lends her expertise to Blitz.
These are not easy decisions.
My predictions:
- Wicked
- Nosferatu
- Conclave
- Gladiator II
- Dune: Part Two
ORIGINAL SONG
The big question in Original Song this year is how many nominations Emilia Pérez will receive. The film’s track “El Mal” has been the frontrunner for quite some time, bolstered by a Golden Globe win and nominations from the SC&L and CCA. Two other songs were consistently nominated across those three major precursors: “Mi Camino,” another strong contender from Pérez, and “Compress/Repress,” the Atticus Ross/Trent Reznor composition from Challengers. While the former feels like a solid bet, I’m less certain about the latter.
It’s impossible to bet against Diane Warren at this point. The Academy’s perennial favorite in this category boasts an impressive 15 nominations, despite yet to claim a win. In fact, Warren has been nominated for the past seven years (2017-2023). Her track “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight will likely extend her streak to eight years.
Then there’s The Wild Robot, with its emotional centerpiece “Kiss the Sky.” This song has already earned nominations from both the CCA and the Globes, and won the HMMA (Hollywood Music in Media Award). If The Wild Robot secures nods in both Song and Score as I’m predicting, it will become the eleventh animated film since 1989 to achieve this feat. Of the ten previous films that managed this, seven took home at least one Oscar, and five of those won both categories.
Where I struggled:
Elton John’s “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late remains a strong contender, as does Kristen Wiig’s “Harper and Will Go West” from the Will & Harper documentary. Could one or both of these songs push out the second track from Pérez or the underdog from Challengers?
A major challenge in this category is the lack of consensus from precursors. Many critics’ groups, along with BAFTA, often skip over recognizing Best Song, making it harder to gauge which songs are truly resonating. On the plus side, we do get a shortlist of 15 contenders. AMPAS narrowed down the field further by disqualifying “Forbidden Road” from Better Man for incorporating material from another song.
My predictions:
- “El Mal” (Emilia Pérez)
- “Kiss the Sky” (The Wild Robot)
- “The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight)
- “Mi Camino” (Emilia Pérez)
- “Never Too Late” (Elton John: Never Too Late)
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
The Oscar shortlist has narrowed the field to 15 contenders, and among them, one film stands out as a clear frontrunner: Emilia Pérez from France. Not only is Emilia a strong contender for a Best Picture nomination – and possibly even a win – but it is also supported by the all-time leader in nominations in this category. This would mark France’s 41st nomination, and a win would bring their total to 13, just one shy of Italy’s record of 14.
Fernanda Torres’ Golden Globe win for Best Actress (Drama) has undoubtedly brought more attention to her film I’m Still Here (Brazil). Although the fires in Los Angeles erupted shortly after the Globes, it’s likely that many voters shifted this film up on their viewing lists. The film’s excellence only adds to its momentum.
Where I struggled:
From there, I can see the category shaping up in several different ways. Germany, the third most-nominated country in this category (22 nominations), enters with The Seed of the Sacred Fig, a film once considered a strong contender for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay. Though the buzz around Seed has died down, it remains a likely nominee in this race. It joins Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here as the only international films to have been nominated by the Globes, CCA, and BAFTA.
Ireland’s Kneecap is another strong contender, potentially making an impact in this category and possibly in Original Song as well, where its track “Sick in the Head” made the shortlist. The film has earned multiple BAFTA nominations and was recognized by the CCA and the MPSE (Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild).
The final spot in this race is especially difficult to predict. Latvia’s Flow is a visually stunning film, but the question remains whether the Academy will accept an animated film in this category, or if its nomination in Animated Feature will suffice as recognition. There is precedent for such a move: in 2021, Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s Flee (Denmark) made history by earning nominations in three categories – Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature.
Speaking of Denmark, no country has received more nominations in this category in the preferential ballot era than Denmark (7 nominations). This year, their dark historical drama The Girl with the Needle is also in contention. Needle has been nominated by the Globes, NBR (National Board of Review), and MPSE, and it made the BAFTA longlist. With strong support behind it, there’s a real chance it could crack the final five.
And, as noted earlier, it’s hard to bet against Italy, the all-time leader in wins in this category. Their film Vermiglio was nominated for a Globe, which could signal strong Academy support.
My predictions:
- Emilia Pérez (France)
- I’m Still Here (Brazil)
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
- Kneecap (Ireland)
- Flow (Latvia)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The analysis here mirrors that of Adapted Screenplay. Anora and A Real Pain have earned nominations from WGA, BAFTA, Globes, and CCA, while The Brutalist and The Substance missed only WGA due to ineligibility. I’m confident in this quartet, all of which I’ve predicted for Best Picture.
Where I struggled:
The fifth spot in Original Screenplay is one of the hardest to call in any category this year. September 5 received a CCA nomination and surprised many with a PGA nomination for Best Picture. However, it was also ineligible for WGA, which complicates its chances here.
Over the past five years, nine international films have garnered a screenplay nomination – about two per year. Along with Emilia Pérez, All We Imagine as Light was initially considered a potential contender. However, without a BAFTA nomination and with WGA ineligibility, it becomes much harder to predict.
Challengers is another strong contender in this race. Its screenplay nomination feels more plausible, especially considering the trend of non-Picture nominees breaking into Screenplay. Challengers received a WGA nomination (possibly due to the high number of contenders disqualified) and also made the BAFTA longlist and CCA.
Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths is another title many are forecasting for Screenplay. Other potential surprises could come from Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, or The Apprentice.
My predictions:
- Anora
- A Real Pain
- The Brutalist
- The Substance
- September 5
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
This year, the documentary field – narrowed down to 15 contenders by the Academy – is a bit all over the place, making it one of the toughest categories to predict.
Where I struggled:
The CCA hands out its documentary awards separately from the rest of its major categories. This year, the documentary ceremony took place on November 10, well before the rest of the awards were scheduled (which were later postponed from January 12 to February 7). As a result, the CCA’s picks come much earlier than other precursors, giving them a unique weight.
This year, the CCA ended in a tie, with Will & Harper and Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story sharing top honors. Of these two, only Will & Harper made the Oscar shortlist, while Super/Man did not.
Looking at past trends, three of the last four documentary winners at the Oscars also took home the PGA Award for Best Documentary. All four of those nominees had PGA recognition. This year, Porcelain War – my personal favorite of the year – is the only shortlisted documentary to receive a PGA nomination.
In the past four years, the BAFTA-winning documentary has gone on to win the Oscar as well. Films like No Other Land, Daughters, Black Box Diaries, and Will & Harper are the only ones remaining in contention that have received BAFTA nominations.
The ACE Awards have also been a strong indicator of future Oscar winners, with Will & Harper being the only documentary still in contention to be recognized there this year.
Meanwhile, the DGA honored shortlisted docs Sugarcane, Daughters, Soundtrack to a Coup d’État, Hollywoodgate, and Porcelain War.
As you can see, the precursors are all over the map, adding to the difficulty of making predictions. I’m putting significant weight on PGA and DGA mentions, as well as BAFTA nominations. After careful consideration, I’ve decided to leave Will & Harper out of my predictions. The Academy’s Documentary Branch has a history of excluding celebrity-focused films (such as Jane, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie), all of which failed to land Oscar nominations despite being early frontrunners.
My predictions:
- No Other Land
- Sugarcane
- Daughters
- Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
- Porcelain War
CINEMATOGRAPHY
ASC, BSC (the British counterpart to ASC), BAFTA, and CCA are the four most influential precursors in the race for the Oscar for Best Cinematography. This year, four films have earned the quartet of honors: The Brutalist (Lol Crawley), Conclave (Stéphane Fontaine), Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser), and Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke). It’s hard to bet against any of these four contenders.
For Crawley and Fontaine, this would mark their first Oscar nominations. Blaschke, nominated previously for The Lighthouse, is vying for his second nomination, while Fraser, who won for Dune and was nominated for Lion, is seeking his third.
Where I struggled:
Phedon Papamichael (A Complete Unknown) received a nomination from ASC and made the BAFTA longlist, while Jomo Fray (Nickel Boys) earned recognition from the CCA. Paul Guilhaume (Emilia Perez) secured spots on both the BSC and BAFTA longlists.
Then there’s Edward Lachman, the master cinematographer behind Maria, which might just have delivered my favorite work of the year. Maria was on the brink of being overlooked before Lachman received a well-deserved ASC nomination. A similar fate befell his work on El Conde last year, which was snubbed by BSC, BAFTA, and CCA but eventually earned him an ASC nomination, which led to an Oscar nod. This year would mark his fourth nomination (following Far From Heaven, Carol, and El Conde).
My predictions:
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Nosferatu
- Maria
LEAD ACTRESS
As I mentioned under Supporting Actor, the major precursors for acting nominations are SAG, CCA, BAFTA, and the Golden Globes. Demi Moore (The Substance), Mikey Madison (Anora), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), and Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez) all received nominations from these key awards bodies. In addition to their widespread recognition, each is in a film I expect to see show up in Best Picture. While some are predicting that Erivo or Gascon might miss out, I’m not convinced. Especially considering that the next ten contenders in the odds are starring in films that may not secure broader recognition.
Where I struggled:
Predicting the fifth spot is where things get complicated. Fernanda Torres stands out as the likely exception. Her film, I’m Still Here, is poised to contend for Best International Feature. Following her Golden Globe win, she’s the only contender outside of the four above who has truly had her moment in the spotlight. Her performance is also undeniable, and for voters who embraced I’m Still Here after Torres’ powerful Globe speech, I expect them to continue supporting her.
Torres’ main competition appears to be Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths). Jean-Baptiste has earned nominations from BAFTA and CCA – two places where Torres was notably absent. However, Hard Truths is a tough watch, and Jean-Baptiste’s character is intensely unlikable, which raises the question of whether voters even made it through the film in the first place.
Outside of these two, the next likely contenders to sneak in are Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), and Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl). Jolie has received nominations from both CCA and the Golden Globes – the non-industry awards. Kidman earned a Globe nomination and made the BAFTA longlist. Anderson has been nominated by both SAG and the Globes. All are certainly within the realm of possibility to appear Thursday morning.
My predictions:
- Demi Moore (The Substance)
- Mikey Madison (Anora)
- Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
- Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
- Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Here we are, at last, facing the toughest category to predict: Supporting Actress. It’s a race with only two clear frontrunners, and both have a solid shot at winning the Oscar in March. Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Ariana Grande-Butera (Wicked) both earned nominations from SAG, BAFTA, the Globes, and CCA. Zoe won the Globe, and it seems likely she will maintain her momentum all the way to the Oscars. But will Ariana have something to say about that?
Next in line is Isabella Rossellini (Conclave), who only missed a nomination at SAG. Her inclusion is bolstered by the fact that she’s in the film I expect to win Best Picture this year. While her screen time is brief (as is often the case with true supporting roles), her performance is impactful, and she nearly steals the show in her key scene. At Telluride, Middleburg, and even at my local theater, the audience erupted in applause at the end of her big moment.
Where I struggled:
Jamie Lee Curtis has built strong relationships in the industry, and after winning an Oscar for Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022), many believe she could score an “afterglow” nomination for her role opposite Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl. With surprise nominations from both SAG and BAFTA, it’s hard to bet against her.
Danielle Deadwyler, with SAG and CCA nominations, could be The Piano Lesson’s sole nominee if she were to make the cut at the Oscars.
A quartet of “it” girls might round out the field:
Monica Barbaro delivered a standout performance as Joan Baez in one of the year’s biggest films, A Complete Unknown. She earned the fifth spot at SAG but didn’t show up in any other major awards groups.
Margaret Qualley, starring alongside Best Actress frontrunner Demi Moore in The Substance, secured Globe and CCA nominations and made BAFTA’s longlist.
Felicity Jones, nominated by BAFTA and the Globes for her role in The Brutalist, also remains a contender.
Selena Gomez may be the least likely of the three major stars of Emilia Pérez to receive a nomination, but she still has a solid shot. Over the past 15 years, 20 films have earned three or more acting nominations, and five of those films received two nominations in Supporting Actress. So, while it’s a long shot, it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.
As we wait to see how this all shakes out, one thing is clear: the Supporting Actress race is wide open, and the potential surprises are plentiful.
My predictions:
- Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
- Ariana Grande-Butera (Wicked)
- Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)
- Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
The Short Films
There is no real analysis for the short films. While I have watched 44 out of the 45 shortlisted films (Me is the one withstanding), your guess is as good as mine here. I decided to go with my five favorites this year to see how much my tastes aligned with Oscar voters. Best of luck in these categories.
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
My predictions:
- A Bear Named Wojtek
- Yuck!
- Wander to Wonder
- Beautiful Men
- Maybe Elephants
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
My predictions:
- A Swim Lesson
- The Quilters
- Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
- I Am Ready, Warden
- Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
My predictions:
- The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
- An Orange From Jaffa
- Anuja
- Dovecote
- The Masterpiece
That wraps up phase one – certainly one of the wildest and most unpredictable phases I can remember. The Oscar nominations will be announced at 5:30 a.m. PT on Thursday, January 23.
Here’s a straightforward look at my final predictions:
PICTURE
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- A Complete Unknown
- Wicked
- The Substance
- Dune: Part Two
- A Real Pain
- September 5
DIRECTOR
- Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
- Edward Berger (Conclave)
- Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
- Sean Baker (Anora)
- Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
LEAD ACTOR
- Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
- Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
- Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
- Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
- Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)
LEAD ACTRESS
- Demi Moore (The Substance)
- Mikey Madison (Anora)
- Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
- Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
- Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
- Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
- Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
- Yura Borisov (Anora)
- Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)
- Ariana Grande-Butera (Wicked)
- Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)
- Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- Conclave
- Emilia Pérez
- A Complete Unknown
- Nickel Boys
- Sing Sing
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- Anora
- A Real Pain
- The Brutalist
- The Substance
- September 5
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Nosferatu
- Maria
COSTUME DESIGN
- Wicked
- Nosferatu
- Conclave
- Gladiator II
- Dune: Part Two
EDITING
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Anora
- Emilia Pérez
- September 5
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
- The Substance
- Wicked
- Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
- Nosferatu
- A Different Man
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- Wicked
- Dune: Part Two
- The Brutalist
- Nosferatu
- Conclave
ORIGINAL SCORE
- Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
- Volker Bertelmann (Conclave)
- Kris Bowers (The Wild Robot)
- Clément Ducol and Camille (Emilia Pérez)
- Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (Challengers)
ORIGINAL SONG
- “El Mal” (Emilia Pérez)
- “Kiss the Sky” (The Wild Robot)
- “The Journey” (The Six Triple Eight)
- “Mi Camino” (Emilia Pérez)
- “Never Too Late” (Elton John: Never Too Late)
SOUND
- Dune: Part Two
- Wicked
- A Complete Unknown
- Emilia Pérez
- Gladiator II
VISUAL EFFECTS
- Dune: Part Two
- Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
- Better Man
- Gladiator II
- Deadpool & Wolverine
ANIMATED FEATURE
- The Wild Robot
- Flow
- Inside Out 2
- Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- Moana 2
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- No Other Land
- Sugarcane
- Daughters
- Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
- Porcelain War
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
- Emilia Pérez (France)
- I’m Still Here (Brazil)
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
- Kneecap (Ireland)
- Flow (Latvia)
ANIMATED SHORT
- A Bear Named Wojtek
- Yuck!
- Wander to Wonder
- Beautiful Men
- Maybe Elephants
LIVE ACTION SHORT
- The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
- An Orange From Jaffa
- Anuja
- Dovecote
- The Masterpiece
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
- A Swim Lesson
- The Quilters
- Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
- I Am Ready, Warden
- Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
- 2025 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist Predicts the Nominees in All 23 Categories - January 22, 2025
- 2025 Oscar Predictions: The Awards Alchemist’s December Update with Golden Globe Nominations, Critics’ Awards Wins - December 9, 2024
- 2025 Oscar Predictions: Introducing ‘The Awards Alchemist’ and a Closer Look at the Animated Feature Oscar Race - November 4, 2024