FINAL Emmy Predictions: Drama categories

It’s all about the drama.

Kevin, Amanda and I have disagreed on a lot of predictions this year but in so many of the top drama categories we’re aligned and in each one of them there is a singular theme: Succession. Drama Series, Drama Writing, Guest Actress and Casting all have the name of the second season of the Roy family saga on it.

In Drama Directing, Kevin and I are swinging to Succession while Amanda is predicting the mining tragedy episode “Aberfan” of The Crown (which should have been Olivia Colman’s submission, but I digress) to win.

FINAL Emmy Predictions: Comedy categories

I’ve chosen to value trends and recent history in Lead Actor and am picking Steve Carell (The Morning Show) to win. Although the Emmys are rarely sympathetic to long-time losers (just ask Angela Lansbury), Carell is a seven-time acting nominee for The Office and this is his first nomination for drama. But the overriding factor for me is the 9-year streak for this category to only give wins to first season or last season roles. Nine years. Carell is the only nominee of the bunch who fits that bill but there’s one thing that’s going against him; his show is not nominated for Drama Series. In that 9-year streak, the only person who won here without their show being nominated was Jeff Daniels for The Newsroom. It was a different era of voting then and Daniels had one of those locked in submissions; that long, long political monologue just two years into the Iraq and Afghanistan wars after 9/11. Carell doesn’t have that with his show or submission, which makes him a bit of a risky bet. Especially when you have most people going for Brian Cox or Jeremy Strong in Succession as both Kevin and Amanda do (they’re both going Strong).

FINAL Emmy Predictions: Limited Series, Reality, Variety and Music

Lead Actress in a Drama Series feels like a lock for Laura Linney (Ozark) but Amanda thinks Academy Award winner Olivia Colman will prevail for the season finale of The Crown. Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show) and her SAG win may have something to say about that but I can’t stop thinking that Zendaya (Euphoria) is going to be a huge shocker win.

Guest Actor in a Drama Series is the only category where we’ve all gone separate ways and there’s a case to be made for each that’s solid. Andrew Scott (Black Mirror) is only here because of the weirdness of category placement, he’s basically a lead in this TV Movie that now is in Drama Series. Giancarlo Esposito (The Mandalorian) was the sole survivor from the Better Call Saul acting massacre this year and the guy is everywhere on television now. James Cromwell is a previous winner (for American Horror Story) and is in the show with the most acting nominations for a Drama Series, our likely Drama Series winner, Succession. But who will win? Or all we all wrong and Ron Cephas Jones (This Is Us) will repeat? [Update: that’s exactly what happened]

Here’s our complete list of predictions in the Drama categories. Those highlighted in green denote correct predictions, those in red are incorrect.