FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards
Here we go.
After one of the wildest and most unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory with regards to the top category, Best Picture, the Gold Rush Gang and myself have finally settled on our final Oscar winner predictions. Or have we?
LISTEN: Oscar Podcast #65: FINAL Oscar winner predictions with Vanity Fair’s Joanna Robinson
Three films have #1 spots among the 10 members: The Shape of Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Get Out. Each of those films comes in with statistical obstacles to overcome. The Shape of Water has the most nominations, won PGA and DGA but missed SAG ensemble (La La Land redux), Three Billboards missed Director (and Martin McDonaugh is no Ben Affleck here) and Get Out got no craft nominations – an 84-year stat. Jason is looking to Lady Bird as a possible spoiler on Sunday, putting it in 2nd behind The Shape of Water. Regardless of what wins, there will be a lot of post-mortem conversation on Monday morning. We’ll be looking at some stats as vulnerable in the future and see which ones are still standing to go another round next season.
| BEST PICTURE | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight) | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 96 |
| 2 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight) | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 88 |
| 3 | Get Out (Universal) | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 83 |
| 4 | Lady Bird (A24) | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 73 |
| 5 | Dunkirk (Warner Bros) | 9 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 53 |
| 6 | Phantom Thread (Focus Features) | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 50 |
| 7 | Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics) | 6 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 43 |
| 8 | Darkest Hour (Focus Features) | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 31 |
| 9 | The Post (20th Century Fox) | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 23 |
One of the most locked categories of the night, Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water) will win Best Director even if his film doesn’t. Although Picture/Director splits are now practically de rigueur at the Oscars, this might be one of the best chances of for a match up. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) and Jordan Peele (Get Out) are within striking distance but only if their films are also surprise players elsewhere.
| BEST DIRECTOR | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 87 |
| 3 | Jordan Peele - Get Out | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 77 |
| 4 | Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 72 |
| 5 | Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 64 |
We can’t see Gary Oldman not winning here. It’s hard to make a case for him to lose. Darkest Hour got a Best Picture nomination. He’s the critics leader thanks to the regional 2nd and 3rd tier groups. He’s won every precursor and has been campaigning harder than almost anyone in his category (except maybe Chalamet). He wants it and he’s let everyone know it. He’s backtracked from his previous anti-awards and anti-Hollywood comments and has embraced the race wholeheartedly. While this type of role seems a bit like a throwback to a more old-fashioned Oscars, it still seems undeniable. First-time nominee Chalamet has been saddled with the ‘he’s young, he’ll have another chance’ dismissal (tell that to Adrien Brody) and three-time Best Actor winner Daniel Day-Lewis’s swan song doesn’t seem to be enough to push him to four.
| BEST ACTOR | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Daniel Day-Lewis - Phantom Thread | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 84 |
| 2 | Timothée Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 84 |
| 4 | Daniel Kaluuya - Get Out | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 72 |
| 5 | Denzel Washington - Roman J. Israel, Esq. | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 60 |
Frances McDormand, who’s done a great deal of the heavy lifting in steering the ship back around for Three Billboards from its backlash and controversy to a narrative of ‘creating conversation,’ should easily join the likes of double Best Actress winners Jane Fonda and Jodie Foster (presenters on Oscar night) as well as her co-nominee Meryl Streep. Even those with misgivings of the film find McDormand’s performance unimpeachable. Sally Hawkins is the closest spoiler but only if there is some kind of crazy sweep by The Shape of Water.
| BEST ACTRESS | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frances McDormand - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 89 |
| 3 | Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 79 |
| 4 | Margot Robbie - I, Tonya | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 72 |
| 5 | Meryl Streep - The Post | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 60 |
Next: Best Supporting Actor & Actress, Best Adapted & Original Screenplays
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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