Wed. Jul 17th, 2019

FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards

Previous: Best Picture, Director, Actor & Actress

While earlier I thought that if there was a weak link in the acting frontrunners it might be Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) since his character represents the lion’s share of his film’s backlash, it appears that he might much stronger than previously thought. Many of those ‘honest voter ballots’ zeroed in on Rockwell as an overwhelming favorite choice. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), briefly the frontrunner in the early stages of awards season, is a distant second. He will become the first actor to win NBR/LA/NY/NSFC and then lose the Oscar since Michelle Pfeiffer (for 1989’s Fabulous Baker Boys).

SUPPORTING ACTOR Erik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri1111111111100
2Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project222222222290
3Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water334333335377
4Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World443444444570
5Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri555555553463

The Oscars love supporting moms and this category is full of them. But this year will be more Mo’Nique than Patricia Arquette as Allison Janney (I, Tonya) is set to steamroll her way up the stage as she has all season. Laurie Metcalf, like Dafoe above, tried to give good chase early on (also like Dafoe, she was the overwhelming critics’ favorite) but will likely have to settle for 2nd place. If DDL was a stronger contender in Best Actor I’d say that first-time nominee Lelsey Manville (Phantom Thread) was a looming threat as well.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS Erik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Allison Janney - I, Tonya 1111111111100
2Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird222222222290
3Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread335343443375
4Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water544534335470
5Mary J. Blige - Mudbound453455554565

Call Me By Your Name should breeze through to a win here. It’s the only Best Picture nominee, it gives 89-year old Oscar nominee James Ivory (Remains of the Day, Room with a View, Howards End) his first win and it’s won WGA, USC and the majority of critics’ awards for adapted screenplay. As much as Mudbound and Molly’s Game would like to be competitive here, they’re simply not.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Erik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Call Me By Your Name1111111111100
2Molly's Game323232322385
2Mudbound232323233285
4Logan444455445566
5The Disaster Artist555544554464

After Best Picture, Original Screenplay is by far the most contentious category this year. Four of the five films nominated are also nominated in Best Picture and have real claims to winning that throne too. With the recent history of Picture/Screenplay at the Oscars it makes it even more interesting. By most accounts, the logical trend has been that the film that wins this will win Best Picture at the end of the night. Lady Bird and The Shape of Water haven’t been strong screenplay performers leading up to the Oscars (and I can’t imagine the amount of plagiarism allegations against del Toro won’t have some impact) where Get Out and Three Billboards have. Get Out was the overwhelming choice among critics in this category and even when there was no separation between Original and Adapted (just like Moonlight was last year) and won the Critics’ Choice and WGA. Three Billboards won the Golden Globe and BAFTA (one of many of its wins at both awards bodies). Critics’ Choice and BAFTA are the only places the two went head to head (Get Out missed out at the Globes, Three Billboards wasn’t eligible for WGA) so this is going to be a real nail-biter. Three Billboards is likely to win other awards on Oscar night but this could be Get Out‘s only shot at a prize. Unless you’re pegging it for Best Picture, as some people are. That said, look to this as the bellwether if it happens early enough in the show.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Erik
Anderson
Bryan BonafedeGreg HowardEvan
Kost
Jason OsiasonKenneth
Polishchuk
Denizcan SürücüRichard
Anthony
Şükrü SöğütMatt DinnTOTAL
POINTS
1Get Out111111222296
2Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 222332111192
3Lady Bird333223333382
4The Shape of Water444444444470
5The Big Sick555555555560

Next: Best Cinematography, Film Editing, Production & Costume Design

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