FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions for the 90th Academy Awards
Previous: Best Picture, Director, Actor & Actress
While earlier I thought that if there was a weak link in the acting frontrunners it might be Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) since his character represents the lion’s share of his film’s backlash, it appears that he might much stronger than previously thought. Many of those ‘honest voter ballots’ zeroed in on Rockwell as an overwhelming favorite choice. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project), briefly the frontrunner in the early stages of awards season, is a distant second. He will become the first actor to win NBR/LA/NY/NSFC and then lose the Oscar since Michelle Pfeiffer (for 1989’s Fabulous Baker Boys).
| SUPPORTING ACTOR | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 90 |
| 3 | Richard Jenkins - The Shape of Water | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 77 |
| 4 | Christopher Plummer - All the Money in the World | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 70 |
| 5 | Woody Harrelson - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 63 |
The Oscars love supporting moms and this category is full of them. But this year will be more Mo’Nique than Patricia Arquette as Allison Janney (I, Tonya) is set to steamroll her way up the stage as she has all season. Laurie Metcalf, like Dafoe above, tried to give good chase early on (also like Dafoe, she was the overwhelming critics’ favorite) but will likely have to settle for 2nd place. If DDL was a stronger contender in Best Actor I’d say that first-time nominee Lelsey Manville (Phantom Thread) was a looming threat as well.
| SUPPORTING ACTRESS | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allison Janney - I, Tonya | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 90 |
| 3 | Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 75 |
| 4 | Octavia Spencer - The Shape of Water | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 70 |
| 5 | Mary J. Blige - Mudbound | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 65 |
Call Me By Your Name should breeze through to a win here. It’s the only Best Picture nominee, it gives 89-year old Oscar nominee James Ivory (Remains of the Day, Room with a View, Howards End) his first win and it’s won WGA, USC and the majority of critics’ awards for adapted screenplay. As much as Mudbound and Molly’s Game would like to be competitive here, they’re simply not.
| ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Call Me By Your Name | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100 |
| 2 | Molly's Game | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 85 |
| 2 | Mudbound | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 85 |
| 4 | Logan | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 66 |
| 5 | The Disaster Artist | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 64 |
After Best Picture, Original Screenplay is by far the most contentious category this year. Four of the five films nominated are also nominated in Best Picture and have real claims to winning that throne too. With the recent history of Picture/Screenplay at the Oscars it makes it even more interesting. By most accounts, the logical trend has been that the film that wins this will win Best Picture at the end of the night. Lady Bird and The Shape of Water haven’t been strong screenplay performers leading up to the Oscars (and I can’t imagine the amount of plagiarism allegations against del Toro won’t have some impact) where Get Out and Three Billboards have. Get Out was the overwhelming choice among critics in this category and even when there was no separation between Original and Adapted (just like Moonlight was last year) and won the Critics’ Choice and WGA. Three Billboards won the Golden Globe and BAFTA (one of many of its wins at both awards bodies). Critics’ Choice and BAFTA are the only places the two went head to head (Get Out missed out at the Globes, Three Billboards wasn’t eligible for WGA) so this is going to be a real nail-biter. Three Billboards is likely to win other awards on Oscar night but this could be Get Out‘s only shot at a prize. Unless you’re pegging it for Best Picture, as some people are. That said, look to this as the bellwether if it happens early enough in the show.
| ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Get Out | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 96 |
| 2 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 92 |
| 3 | Lady Bird | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 82 |
| 4 | The Shape of Water | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 70 |
| 5 | The Big Sick | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 60 |
Next: Best Cinematography, Film Editing, Production & Costume Design
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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