Frontrunner Friday 2024 Oscar Predictions: Same As It Ever Was
Only a few placement changes in the prediction lineup this week (American Fiction up in Adapted Screenplay, Barbie down) but we’re on the precipice of the guilds now. Art Directors (ADG) and the Directors Guild (DGA) both have their ceremonies tomorrow night, Saturday, February 10. Then a smattering next week with the Society of Composers and Lyricists and the Set Decorators Society and the all-important event of the season, the Oscar nominees luncheon on the 12th where we’ll get the portrait of the class of 2024 and, if all nominees show up in a given acting category, the group nominee photo. That happens to be the day before PGA and BAFTA voting ends so anyone doing some last minute campaigning will be kicking it into high gear.
Active members of the Academy are eligible to vote for the winners in all 23 categories beginning Thursday, February 22, through Tuesday, February 27.
The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10 at 4pm PT – an hour earlier than usual – at the Dolby Theatre at Ovation Hollywood in Los Angeles.
Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions for the 2024 Academy Awards on Friday, February 9.
BEST PICTURE
| 1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers |
| 2. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Mark Johnson, Producer |
| 3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers |
| 4. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – BAFTA, GG, PGA Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers |
| 5. American Fiction (Amazon MGM) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers |
| 6. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA, SAG Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers |
| 7. Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG, PGA, SAG David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers |
| 8. Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG, PGA Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers |
| 9. The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG, PGA James Wilson, Producer |
| 10. Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG, PGA David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers |
BEST DIRECTOR
| 1. Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, DGA, GG) |
| 2. Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA) |
| 3. Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things (CCA, DGA, GG) |
| 4. Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest (BAFTA) |
| 5. Martin Scorsese for Killers of the Flower Moon (CCA, DGA, GG) |
BEST ACTOR
| 1. Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 3. Bradley Cooper in Maestro (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 4. Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 5. Colman Domingo in Rustin (CCA, GG, SAG) |
BEST ACTRESS
| 1. Emma Stone in Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon (CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 3. Annette Bening in Nyad (GG, SAG) |
| 4. Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA, CCA, GG) |
| 5. Carey Mulligan in Maestro (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
SUPPORTING ACTOR
| 1. Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. Ryan Gosling in Barbie (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 3. Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction (CCA, SAG) |
| 4. Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 5. Mark Ruffalo in Poor Things (CCA, SAG) |
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
| 1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 2. America Ferrera in Barbie (CCA) |
| 3. Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 4. Jodie Foster in Nyad (CCA, GG, SAG) |
| 5. Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple (BAFTA, CCA, GG, SAG) |
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
| 1. American Fiction (BAFTA, CCA, USC) Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson |
| 2. Barbie (BAFTA,* CCA,* GG) Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach |
| 3. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC) Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan |
| 4. Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG, USC) Screenplay by Tony McNamara |
| 5. The Zone of Interest (BAFTA) Written by Jonathan Glazer |
*nominated in Original Screenplay before Academy switch to Adapted
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
| 1. Anatomy of a Fall (BAFTA, GG) Screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari |
| 2. The Holdovers (BAFTA, CCA) Written by David Hemingson |
| 3. Past Lives (BAFTA, CCA, GG) Written by Celine Song |
| 4. Maestro (BAFTA, CCA) Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer |
| 5. May December Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik |
FILM EDITING
| 1. Oppenheimer (ACE, BAFTA, CCA) Jennifer Lame |
| 2. Anatomy of a Fall (ACE, BAFTA) Laurent Sénéchal |
| 3. Killers of the Flower Moon (ACE, BAFTA, CCA) Thelma Schoonmaker |
| 4. Poor Things (ACE, BAFTA, CCA) Yorgos Mavropsaridis |
| 5. The Holdovers (ACE) Kevin Tent |
CINEMATOGRAPHY
| 1. Oppenheimer (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Hoyte van Hoytema |
| 2. Killers of the Flower Moon (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Rodrigo Prieto |
| 3. Maestro (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Matthew Libatique |
| 4. Poor Things (ASC, BAFTA, CCA) Robbie Ryan |
| 5. El Conde (ASC) Edward Lachman |
COSTUME DESIGN
| 1. Poor Things (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Holly Waddington |
| 2. Barbie (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Jacqueline Durran |
| 3. Napoleon (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Janty Yates and Dave Crossman |
| 4. Killers of the Flower Moon (BAFTA, CDG, CCA) Jacqueline West |
| 5. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CDG) Ellen Mirojnick |
PRODUCTION DESIGN
| 1. Barbie (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer |
| 2. Poor Things (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: James Price and Shona Heath; Set Decoration: Zsuzsa Mihalek |
| 3. Napoleon (ADG, SDSA) Production Design: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Elli Griff |
| 4. Killers of the Flower Moon (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis |
| 5. Oppenheimer (ADG, BAFTA, CCA, SDSA) Production Design: Ruth De Jong; Set Decoration: Claire Kaufman |
ORIGINAL SCORE
| 1. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Ludwig Göransson |
| 2. Killers of the Flower Moon (BAFTA, CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Robbie Robertson |
| 3. Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, GG) Jerskin Fendrix |
| 4. American Fiction (HMMA, SCL) Laura Karpman |
| 5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny John Williams |
ORIGINAL SONG
| 1. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell |
| 2. “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (CCA, GG, HMMA, SCL) Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt |
| 3. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon Music and Lyric by Scott George |
| 4. “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (SCL) Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson |
| 5. “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (HMMA, SCL) Music and Lyric by Diane Warren |
SOUND
| 1. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE) Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell |
| 2. Maestro (BAFTA, CAS, MPSE) Steven A. Morrow, Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic |
| 3. The Creator Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic |
| 4. The Zone of Interest Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn (BAFTA, MPSE) |
| 5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (BAFTA, MPSE) Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor |
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
| 1. Maestro (BAFTA, CCA, MUAH) Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell |
| 2. Poor Things (BAFTA, CCA, MUAH) Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston |
| 3. Golda (BAFTA, MUAH) Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue |
| 4. Society of the Snow Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé |
| 5. Oppenheimer (BAFTA, CCA, MUAH) Luisa Abel |
VISUAL EFFECTS
| 1. Napoleon (BAFTA, VES*) Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould |
| 2. The Creator (BAFTA, CCA, VES) Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould |
| 3. Godzilla Minus One (VES*) Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima |
| 4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (BAFTA, CCA, VES) Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek |
| 5. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (BAFTA, CCA, VES*) Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould |
*supporting or not main category
ANIMATED FEATURE
| 1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA) Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal |
| 2. The Boy and the Heron (Annie, BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA) Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki |
| 3. Elemental (BAFTA, CCA, GG, PGA) Peter Sohn and Denise Ream |
| 4. Nimona (Annie, CCA) Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary |
| 5. Robot Dreams Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz |
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
| 1. 20 Days in Mariupol (BAFTA, CCA, CEH, PGA) Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath |
| 2. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (IDA) Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek |
| 3. Four Daughters (CEH) Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha |
| 4. To Kill a Tiger Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim |
| 5. The Eternal Memory (CCA, CEH) Nominees to be determined |
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
| 1. The Zone of Interest (BAFTA, CCA, GG) United Kingdom |
| 2. Society of the Snow (BAFTA, CCA, GG) Spain |
| 3. The Teachers’ Lounge Germany |
| 4. Perfect Days (CCA) Japan |
| 5. Io Capitano (GG) Italy |
ANIMATED SHORT
| 1. WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko (ElectroLeague) Dave Mullins (director), Brad Booker, Sophie Cherry (producers) |
| 2. Letter to a Pig (Miyu Distribution) Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter |
| 3. Ninety-Five Senses (Documentary+) Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess |
| 4. Our Uniform (TBD) Yegane Moghaddam |
| 5. Pachyderme (Miyu Distribution) Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius |
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
| 1. Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (Walt Disney Pictures) Sean Wang and Sam Davis |
| 2. The Last Repair Shop (L.A. Times Studios/Searchlight Pictures) Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers |
| 3. The ABCs of Book Banning (MTV Documentary Films/Paramount+) Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic |
| 4. The Barber of Little Rock (Story Syndicate) John Hoffman and Christine Turner |
| 5. Island in Between (The New York Times Op-Docs) S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien |
LIVE ACTION SHORT
| 1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix) Wes Anderson and Steven Rales |
| 2. The After (Netflix) Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham |
| 3. Red, White and Blue (TBD) Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane |
| 4. Knight of Fortune (Jalabert Production) Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk |
| 5. Invincible (H264 Distribution) Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron |
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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