Frontrunner Friday 2025 Oscar Predictions: A Cinderella Story

Awards season seemed to tilt on its axis last weekend as what was largely a muddled, unsure Best Picture race got much clearer. Or at least it seems. For one film, it was the greatest day. For others, not so much.

At the Critics Choice Awards last Friday, twice delayed due to the LA fires and originally set for right after the Golden Globes in January, the vibe was definitely a bit muted. Host Chelsea Handler was affable and funny; drank a glass of milk on camera while Ralph Fiennes at in his seat and said ‘good girl’ were among the cheeky moments, and the wins were both largely expected and cast a wide net, it’s not a sweep year. The CCA did show up the Academy by rewarding Challengers twice – in editing and score – where it was completely shut out by the Oscars. Those awards were also given off live TV so the cheers from the Challengers table where I was sitting with writer Justin Kuritzkes and editor Marco Costa, fell on deaf ears. Or at least just those inside the Barker Hangar in Santa Monica. Wicked won costume and production design, as predicted, and nearly any time the film’s name was mentioned it was one of the few things to elicit a response from the audience (outside of Kathy Bates’ surprise win, which was a treat for everyone). Conclave managed two wins, ensemble and adapted screenplay. Emilia Pérez snagged the exact three it was pegged to win: Supporting Actress for Zoe Saldaña, song (“El Mal”) and International Feature. Now, voting on these ending January 10, long before Karlagate entered the Oscarsphere so who knows where the CCA would have gone but I dare to say not too differently. The Substance surprised in original screenplay, along with makeup and Best Actress for Demi Moore. Kieran Culkin won supporting actor for A Real Pain, notching one more on his way to his inevitable Oscar win.

But it’s what was not winning that was earning my attention. The Brutalist and Anora were sitting through this 3+ hour show with a table full of Milagro tequila bottles but no awards to speak of. That finally changed when Adrien Brody bested Timothée Chalamet and Ralph Fiennes for Best Actor but nothing prepared the room for what ended up being the biggest shock of the night. When actor Orlando Bloom came out to present Best Director he touted how many winners here would go on to win the Oscar (the last eight in a row had) and indeed, among the nominees – eight of them – housed four of the five Oscar contenders (sorry, James Mangold) and then he reads ‘Jon M. Chu for Wicked.’ The Wicked table, front and center near the stage, exploded and rose to their feet and the room erupted too, both in shock and awe. Not only was Chu not nominated for Best Director at the Oscars, he hadn’t earned a DGA nomination, BAFTA, or anything other than that National Board of Review win back in December. Jokingly, and in good spirit, he said “I’m going to win an Oscar!” I can tell you the vibe in the room changed very quickly. “Is Wicked winning Best Picture?” could be heard from every surrounding table. Then, for the final award of the night Sasha Baron Cohen came out, offered a rambling opening to reveal the Best Picture winner: Anora. After losing screenplay, supporting actor, best actress and best director it was a surprise to the room and the Anora team themselves. But it was just a bellwether of what was to come the very next day.

In their infinite wisdom, the DGA and PGA were held on the same night, at the same time. As they’re both long shows and untelevised, speeches can run over the usual allotted 45 seconds a live show offers. RaMell Ross, upon winning the First-Time Theatrical Feature Director DGA Award, brought his entire directing team on stage at the Beverly Wilshire and gave them each a minute of kudos and then went deep for what was nearly 10 more minutes. Honorary awards were plentiful, each main DGA Award nominee was given a full intro by an actor (usually from their film) and then got to give there on speech onstage. Meanwhile, the PGA Awards were ticking along just five minutes away at the Fairmont Century Plaza. We get to the final award of the night, presented by last year’s winner, Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), who went on to win the Oscar. “The Directing guild recognizes the outstanding achievement of…Sean Baker for Anora.” The room lit up. And again, like with CCA, many of us were then wondering…can Anora win the PGA?

Well, as fast as Baker could give his speech (above), he and his fellow nominees as well as the dozen or so press in the room booked it to the rotunda outside to call for cars to race us all over to the Fairmont to find out in real time. Luckily, the PGA and DGA did plan it out so that by the time we all got there, we still had three awards and a tribute to sit through as we noshed on left behind desserts and random open bottles of wine from nominees and winners who had already left. Two-time Oscar winner Jodie Foster hit the stage to reveal the winner of the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures and yep, it was Anora. The Palme d’Or winner from NEON entered this stage of awards season as the most honored film (based on critics’ wins) then got ghosted by the Golden Globes, then in a space of 24 hours not only came back to life but is thriving. Can it go all the way? You’d be hard-pressed to not think so with that one-two punch historically. And before you say ‘well, 1917 won both and still lost’ or highlight that Moonlight and Parasite lost PGA before winning the Oscar, I would ask you to ask yourselves, when something has upset at the Oscars after DGA and/or PGA anointed another film, what does that breakdown look like? It’s the underdog that triumphs at the end, the David not the Goliath. Anora is and has been that; the stealth frontrunner all season that didn’t need to overcompensate with marketing, one that simply became the stamped favorite of the two guilds – with two different voting styles – who have the most impact.

But there’s still so much more. This weekend will be the Art Directors Guild (ADG), Makeup & Hairstylists Guild (MUAH), Writers Guild (WGA) and the BAFTAs before we turn the corner on monster final weekend of the month which includes the Spirit Awards, Cinema Audio Society (CAS), Motion Picture Sound Editors (MPSE), American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG).

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for the 97th Academy Awards in all categories for February 14, 2025.

BEST PICTURE

BEST DIRECTOR

BEST ACTOR

BEST ACTRESS

SUPPORTING ACTOR

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

FILM EDITING

CINEMATOGRAPHY

PRODUCTION DESIGN

COSTUME DESIGN

ORIGINAL SCORE

ORIGINAL SONG

SOUND

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

VISUAL EFFECTS

ANIMATED FEATURE

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

ANIMATED SHORT

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Critics Choice Association (CCA), San Francisco Bay Area Film Critics Circle (SFBAFCC) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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