What a difference a week makes in awards season. Just 11 days ago the mid-December Best Picture predictions came out with Dunkirk atop the chart and stealth contenders Get Out and Lady Bird at #5 and #6, respectively. Cue to the Golden Globe and (especially) the Screen Actors Guild nominations where both films scored. Now, Lady Bird is perched in the top spot and Get Out is right behind at #2.
While the two films have been bubbling under and gaining steam throughout the season, everything was still based on conjecture and critics’ awards. Even though the Golden Globes aren’t ‘industry’ they’re still an important part of the awards process. Although, this year there is quite a surprising rift between the 90+ members of the HFPA and the 2200 of the SAG nom comm. The Globes went heavy on Steven Spielberg’s The Post, giving it six nominations – including Best Motion Picture, Best Actor (Tom Hanks), Best Actress (Meryl Streep) and Best Director. They also were the ONLY group to see All the Money in the World (on the day of their deadline, no less) and the film earned Best Actress (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer) nominations as well as a mention for Ridley Scott in Best Director. Since the SAG nom comm didn’t see ATMITW it got no nominations there. But the bigger news was that The Post’s screener was so late, and apparently coded – creating some difficulties, that the film was completely shut out of any nominations there.
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri actually scored the second most Globe noms (six, tied with The Post) most SAG noms (four – including a Cast nomination) but falls hard from #2 to #6. It’s difficult to know what to do with the film; it’s a huge critical success but since its release has been hit with some controversy and we know that a divisive film cannot win Best Picture in this era of preferential voting. The Shape of Water did very well at the Globes with the most nominations of any film (7) but then missed out on a SAG Cast nom. Call Me By Your Name did ok with the Globes, earning three (it missed out on Screenplay and Director), but ended up with just a single SAG nom (for Timothée Chalamet). As with The Post, screener access and visibility were somewhat of an issue.
The next major precursor will arrive on January 3, 2018 – the Producers Guild nominees. From their list of 10 we’ll very likely see 8 or 9 of the films listed below. We might see a fringe contender show strength or simply a non-contender show up because it made a lot of money for a studio.
Here are the current Best Picture frontrunners for Friday, December 15, 2017 from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye out for December Part 2 predictions all next week and take a peek at the live predictions here.
| 1 | Lady Bird |
| 2 | Get Out |
| 3 | The Post |
| 4 | Dunkirk |
| 5 | The Shape of Water |
| 6 | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
| 7 | Call Me By Your Name |
| 8 | The Florida Project |
| 9 | Darkest Hour |
| 10 | I, Tonya |
| 11 | The Big Sick |
| 11 | Mudbound |
| 13 | Phantom Thread |
OTHER CONTENDERS
All the Money in the World
Blade Runner 2049
Downsizing
The Greatest Showman
Wonder Woman
Wonder
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