Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: All quiet on the awards front…for now

It’s quiet. TOO quiet…

The only big awards event since last week’s February Oscar predictions were the Art Directors Guild (nominations) yesterday which gave us 15 films in three categories vying for five spots at the Oscars. Period pieces nearly always take up most of those spots with some sci-fi/fantasy films squeaking in year to year. Contemporary films? Good luck. When you add the ADG nominations, BFCA (aka Critics Choice) and the BAFTA longlist you get just four films who have gotten them all: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, News of the World and Tenet. Shockingly, classic period pieces Emma. and The Personal History of David Copperfield missed ADG. The latter was BAFTA-eligible last year so it won’t factor in this year at all. But Emma. missing stood out, although there was word that the ADG didn’t receive screeners for the film. Don’t discount them quite yet; Mr. Turner, The Young Victoria and The Duchess were all nominated for the Oscar after missing ADG. If all four of those films make it in, however, that leaves just one spot and many films vying for it; the aforementioned Emma. and David Copperfield, plus Mulan, The Midnight Sky, Pinocchio and The Trial of the Chicago 7.

There was also the very late official announcement of all eligible films for the 93rd Academy Awards – 366 of them, the most since 1970. Who said there ‘no movies in 2020’?

We got a smattering of critics’ awards announcements and the Casting Society of America also revealed its nominations, which cover so many films in so many categories it doesn’t really end up being a major factor in the guild races as it pertains to the Oscar race. But, they did stand out for…nominating Ammonite in a comedy category. Yes, that knee-slapping, joke-a-minute laughfest Ammonite.

Something that just erupted today was Never Rarely Sometimes Always director revealing on her Instagram that an Oscar-winning Academy member sent her a direct email that as a staunch anti-abortion advocate he would not be watching her film, also invoked the MAGA ’75 million’ mantra. It was evocative of the high-profile actors like Tony Curtis and Ernest Borgnine publicly refusing to watch 2005’s Brokeback Mountain and its bid for Best Picture. We all know how that turned out. Could this new Academy controversy, 15 years later, push support behind the Spirit Award nominations-leading, NSFC and NYFCC-winning NRSA and Hittman in a banner year of women-written films in the screenplay race? For a film that’s largely been on the cusp of both Best Picture and Original Screenplay, it could be a game-changer if those voters who make decisions based on technical merit, and in an era of added female representation in the Academy, rather than a personal or religious dogma. [UPDATE: Hittman has since removed her Instagram post on the email she received. Am following up for further details]

This Sunday is The 78th Golden Globe Awards, the first major televised awards show of the season. We probably put too much emphasis on the Globes, but the nearly 80-year old institution, for all of its scandals and controversies (new and old), remain a staple in awards season as the real kick off.

Golden Globe predictions, Motion Picture: ‘Trial’ and error as the HFPA is once again mired in controversy

From then it’s a wild ride next week Golden Reel nominations for sound editing (3/1), Cinema Audio Society nominations (3/2), Annie Award nominations for animation (3/3), Costume Designer Guild nominations (3/4) and the Hollywood Critics Awards (3/5). It just keeps rolling from there, with the Producers Guild and Directors Guild following. All of a sudden, we’re in Oscar season!

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for February 26, 2021.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

3. Minari (A24) – GG (foreign), SAG
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Tom Ackerley, Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox, Margot Robbie (producers)

5. Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

6. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – SAG, BAFTA longlist
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

8. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Gary Goetzman, Gail Mutrux, Gregory Goodman

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)

10. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) GG, BAFTA longlist
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Regina King – One Night in Miami (Amazon Studios) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

BEST ACTRESS

1. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

2. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

3. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

5. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu) – GG

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Maria Bakalova – Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (Amazon Studios) – GG (lead), SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – USC, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – USC, BAFTA longlist, BFCA , WGA
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – USC, BAFTA longlist, BFCA , WGA
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

5. First Cow (A24) – USC, BFCA
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA , WGA
Aaron Sorkin

2. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA , WGA
Emerald Fennell

3. Minari (A24) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Lee Isaac Chung

4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jack Fincher

5. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, WGA
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)

FILM EDITING

1.  The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Alan Baumgarten

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
Chloé Zhao

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Kirk Baxter

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
William Goldenberg

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jennifer Lame

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, ADG
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, ADG
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, ADG
Mark Ricker (production designer), Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decorators)

4. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures) – ADG
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, ADG
Nathan Crowley (production designer), Kathy Lucas (set decorator)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Trish Summerville

2. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist
Alexandra Byrne

3. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu) – BAFTA longlist
Paolo Nieddu

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Ann Roth

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Mark Bridges

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, MUAH (x3)
Eryn Krueger Mekash (makeup department head), Patricia Dehaney (hair department head), Matthew Mungle (prosthetic designer)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, MUAH (x2)
Sergio Lopez-Rivera (personal makeup for Viola Davis), Mia Neal (hair department head, wig Designer & wig builder), Jamika Wilson (personal hair for Viola Davis)

3. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – BAFTA longlist, MUAH
Mark Coulier (prosthetic makeup designer), Dalia Colli (makeup artist), Francesco Pegoretti (hair designer)

4. Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn (Warner Bros) – MUAH (x2)
Nominees TBD

5. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Nominees TBD

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – HMMA, SCL, GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

2. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – HMMA, SCL, GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
James Newton Howard

3. Mank (Netflix) – HMMA, SCL, GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Terence Blanchard

5. Minari (A24) – HMMA, SCL, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Emile Mosseri

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – GG, BFCA
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

2. “Io Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix) – HMMA, SCL, GG, BFCA
Written by Diane Warren, Laura Pausini and Niccolò Agliardi

3. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix) – HMMA, SCL, BFCA
Written by Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon Studios)
Written by Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, George “George 2.0.” A. Peters II

5. “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – HMMA, BFCA
Written by H.E.R., D’Mile, Tiara Thomas

SOUND

1.  The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Randy Thom, Dan Hiland, Todd Beckett, Danny Hambrook, Bjorn Schroeder

2. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist
Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana

3. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist
Richard King, Mark Larry, Kevin O’Connell, Gary A. Rizzo

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum

5. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, Drew Kunin

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon

2. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers

3. Mulan (Disney+) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, Steve Ingram

4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Wei Zheng, Simon Carr, Pablo Helman, James Pastorius

5. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO)
Ryan Laney

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon/GKIDS) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Over the Moon (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim

4. Onward (Pixar) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

5. The Croods: A New Age (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation) – GG, BAFTA longlist
Mark Swift, Joel Crawford 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Collective (Magnolia Selects) – BAFTA longlist
Alexander Nanau

2. Time (Amazon Studios) – PGA
Garrett Bradley

3. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films)
David France

4. Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA longlist, PGA
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark, Samuel Goldwyn Mayer) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia-Herzegovina, NEON/SUPER LTD) – BAFTA longlist

3. A Sun (Taiwan)

4. La Llorona (Guatemala, Shudder) – GG, BFCA

5. Two of Us (France, Magnolia Pictures) – GG, BFCA

ANIMATED SHORT

1. Burrow

2. Out

3. If Anything Happens I Love You

4. Genius Loci

5. Yes-People

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. What Would Sophia Loren Do? (trailer)

2. Hunger Ward (trailer)

3. Colette

4. The Speed Cubers

5. A Concerto Is a Conversation (full film)

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Human Voice (trailer)

2. The Letter Room

3. White Eye

4. Feeling Through

5. Two Distant Strangers (trailer)

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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