Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Hollywood Globetrotters

Last weekend, the Golden Globes found a way to trump their own internal controversies that became external by giving us some truly shocking winners in the acting categories, namely Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) in Best Actress – Drama and Jodie Foster (The Mauritanian) in Supporting Actress. Are these the results of a very small group of people branching out on their own or is it a sign of something bigger?

In this bizarre awards season, stretched out two months longer than usual, almost three compared to last year’s ‘early’ Oscars, it’s felt bound to give us some mixed results and less rubber stamping than we often see. The Globes also went for Nomadland over The Trial of the Chicago 7 or Promising Young Woman but their recent correlation with Oscar’s Best Picture has been spotty at best. But what these wins did, as well as Daniel Kaluuya’s Supporting Actor win for Judas and the Black Messiah, is show that late-breaking films are as strong as they ever were. If we look at these February releases as essentially a December release in a regular season, it’s pretty normal. The newsness factor weighs heavily with some voters, certainly those who have mostly made up their minds by the time the voting period starts and for the Oscars, that’s today. Today, March 5, is the first day of Oscar nomination voting and in that period, until March 10, we’ll have CCA winners, PGA and DGA nominations and BAFTA nominations in the mix.

Is an Oscar bid guaranteed with a Globe win and no SAG nod?

This Sunday gives us the Critics’ Choice Awards, whose voting didn’t even begin until after the Golden Globes announced their winners and immediately the gossip mill began churning. Will the CCA follow suit and award Day, or, in true CCA fashion, magically reveal a ‘tie’ between Day and Carey Mulligan or Frances McDormand? The CCA have painted themselves into a bit of a corner, with specious ties in the recent past (Glenn Close and Lady Gaga in Best Actress) to the infamous decision to ‘add’ Star Wars: The Force Awakens to their nominations after they came out. Since their reputation is rather sullied, and wasn’t great to begin with, a tie will be met with countless ‘toldja so’ and side eye at best, accusations of outright vote-rigging at worst. C’est la vie, CCA.

We got a lot of guild nomination activity this week and last, including Costume Designers, Makeup and Hair Stylists, Art Directors, Cinema Audio Society and Motion Picture Sound Editors (now a single Sound category at the Oscars) as well as Visual Effects, Annie nominations and more. Lots to work with in making new predictions.

This is the last Frontrunner Friday for Oscar nomination predictions. With nominations arriving on Monday, March 15 next week will be devoted to final predictions in all 23 categories.

But for now, here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for March 5, 2021.

BEST PICTURE

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

3. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Tom Ackerley, Ben Browning, Emerald Fennell, Ashley Fox, Margot Robbie (producers)

4. Minari (A24) – GG (foreign), SAG, BFCA
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

6. Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers) 

7. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Gary Goetzman, Gail Mutrux, Gregory Goodman 

8. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)

9. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

10. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) GG, BAFTA longlist
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Lee Isaac Chung – Minari (A24) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Steven Yeun – Minari (A24) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

BEST ACTRESS

1. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

2. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday (Hulu) – GG, BFCA

3. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

4. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

5. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24) – SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

3. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – GG, SAG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

4. Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian (STX Films) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

5. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, GG, USC (WGA ineligible)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA , USC, WGA
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA , USC, WGA
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, GG (WGA ineligible)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

5. First Cow (A24) – BFCA, USC
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA , GG, WGA
Aaron Sorkin

2. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA , GG, WGA
Emerald Fennell

3. Minari (A24) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA (WGA ineligible)
Lee Isaac Chung

4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, GG (WGA ineligible)
Jack Fincher

5. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, WGA
Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (screenplay), Derek Cianfrance (story by)

FILM EDITING

1.  The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Alan Baumgarten

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
Chloé Zhao

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Kirk Baxter

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist
William Goldenberg

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Jennifer Lame

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – ASG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Mark Ricker (production designer), Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decorators)

4. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures) – ADG
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – ADG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Nathan Crowley (production designer), Kathy Lucas (set decorator)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, CDG
Trish Summerville

2. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, CDG
Alexandra Byrne

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, CDG
Ann Roth

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Mark Bridges

5. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, CDG
Bina Daigeler

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, MUAH (x3)
Eryn Krueger Mekash (makeup department head), Patricia Dehaney (hair department head), Matthew Mungle (prosthetic designer)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, MUAH (x2)
Sergio Lopez-Rivera (personal makeup for Viola Davis), Mia Neal (hair department head, wig Designer & wig builder), Jamika Wilson (personal hair for Viola Davis)

3. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – BAFTA longlist, MUAH
Mark Coulier (prosthetic makeup designer), Dalia Colli (makeup artist), Francesco Pegoretti (hair designer)

4. Birds of Prey and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn (Warner Bros) – MUAH (x2)
Deborah Lamia Denaver (makeup department head), Sabrina Wilson (makeup artist, Adruitha Lee (hair department head)

5. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Marese Langan (hair and makeup designer)

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

2. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
James Newton Howard

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

4. Minari (A24) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Emile Mosseri

5. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Terence Blanchard

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Io Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, GG, SCL
Written by Diane Warren, Laura Pausini and Niccolò Agliardi

2. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, GG, HMMA
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

3. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Written by Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Göransson, and Savan Kotecha

4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (Amazon Studios) – HMMA
Written by Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, George “George 2.0.” A. Peters II

5. “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, HMMA
Written by H.E.R., D’Mile, Tiara Thomas

SOUND

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA longlist, CAS, MPSE
2. Phillip Bladh, Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Carolina Santana

2. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA longlist, CAS, MPSE
John Pritchett, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, Oliver Tarney, Michael Fentum

3. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, MPSE
Randy Thom, Dan Hiland, Todd Beckett, Danny Hambrook, Bjorn Schroeder

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, CAS, MPSE
Renee Tondelli, Dan Kenyon, Julian Slater, Michael Babcock, Thomas Varga

5. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, CAS, MPSE
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance, Drew Kunin

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, VES
Matt Kasmir, Chris Lawrence, Dave Watkins, Max Solomon

2. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, VES
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott R. Fisher, Mike Chambers

3. Mulan (Disney+) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, VES
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury, Steve Ingram

4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, VES
Wei Zheng, Simon Carr, Pablo Helman, James Pastorius

5. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO) – VES
Ryan Laney

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – Annie, GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon/GKIDS) – Annie, GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Onward (Pixar) – Annie, GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

4. The Croods: A New Age (Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation) – Annie, GG, BAFTA longlist
Mark Swift, Joel Crawford

5. Over the Moon (Netflix) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim 

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Collective (Magnolia Selects) – BAFTA longlist, CEH, IDA
Alexander Nanau

2. Time (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, CEH, IDA, PGA
Garrett Bradley

3. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films) – IDA
David France

4. Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix) – BAFTA longlist, BFCA, IDA
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA longlist, IDA, PGA
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark, Samuel Goldwyn Mayer) – GG, BAFTA longlist, BFCA

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia-Herzegovina, NEON/SUPER LTD) – BAFTA longlist

3. A Sun (Taiwan)

4. La Llorona (Guatemala, Shudder) – GG, BFCA

5. Two of Us (France, Magnolia Pictures) – GG, BFCA

ANIMATED SHORT

1. Burrow

2. Out

3. If Anything Happens I Love You

4. Genius Loci

5. Yes-People

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. What Would Sophia Loren Do? (trailer)

2. Hunger Ward (trailer)

3. Colette

4. The Speed Cubers

5. A Concerto Is a Conversation (full film)

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Human Voice (trailer)

2. The Letter Room

3. White Eye

4. Feeling Through

5. Two Distant Strangers (trailer)

LEGEND

• ADG – Art Directors Guild
• Annie – Annie Awards
• BAFTA longlist – EE British Academy of Film and Television Awards
• BFCA – Broadcast Film Critics Association aka Critics Choice Awards
• CAS – Cinema Audio Society
• CEH – Cinema Eye Honors
• CSA – Casting Society of America
• GG – Golden Globe Awards
• HMMA – Hollywood Music in Media
• IDA – International Documentary Association
• MPSE – Motion Picture Sound Editors
• MUAH – Makeup and Hairstylist Guild
• SAG – Screen Actors Guild
• SCL – Society of Composers and Lyricists
• VES – Visual Effects Society
• WGA – Writers Guild of America

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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