Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: No Man’s Land

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) gave us the biggest piece of the Oscar puzzle this week, with Nomadland, Soul and My Octopus Teacher each winning their respective categories and in doing so gave one the boost it needed, one the undeniable future of a win and another the possibility of a big upset on Oscar night, respectively.

As I mentioned in my PGA piece yesterday, Nomadland kind of needed to win their, on their preferential ballot, as a testing ground for the Oscars. Although it’s the critical fave of the season, won Critics Choice and the Golden Globe, it was so far untested with the industry outside of nominations. It’s not a typical PGA winner, even at this point, another critics favorite, 2014’s Boyhood, lost its steam and Birdman took over on its way to Oscar. Same with 2010’s The Social Network. Once the industry awards started rolling in everything switched to The King’s Speech. Several films were definitely in the running to give Nomadland some chase, namely The Trial of the Chicago 7. A film that felt very timely but ultimately faltered in its execution as Aaron Sorkin’s Best Director snub showed. Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman had all the right nominations and guild backing to position itself for an upset, including a WGA win over Trial. Lee Isaac Chung’s Minari, one of the season’s biggest surprises in terms of nominations success could have really turned the race upside down. SAG will be an interesting fight between Trial and Minari (Nomadland and Promising Young Woman are not nominated for the ensemble award) but DGA and BAFTA will hold the final cards for Best Picture where it’s hard to see either breaking from the path Nomadland‘s rickety old van is on. What was already a history-making year for women with Oscar nominations looks to be one for the books with wins as well.

Soul has so far been unchallenged in the Animated Feature race, no matter how hard Wolfwalkers tries. With PGA, Critics Choice and the Golden Globe and the BAFTA in sight, even if the Annies go for Wolfwalkers it will be too little, too late. My Octopus Teacher has been one of the season’s wildest surprises but looking back makes perfect sense. Of the eventual Documentary Feature Oscar nominees (which was the biggest hurdle for the animal-centric film to overcome with the finicky doc branch), it is the only one nominated at the DGA and only one of two that was PGA-nominated. The other was Time, the LAFCA/NYFCC/NSFC winner about a woman staying connected with her wrongfully imprisoned husband for nearly 20 years. My Octopus Teacher is BAFTA-nominated alongside another perceived frontrunner, Collective, Romania’s double nominee (it also represents the country for the International Feature Film Oscar) about a newspaper to discovers astonishing corruption in their health care system. This race is going to be a genuine nailbiter.

There are several below-the-line races that feel that way. Original Song feels like a three-way race between “Husavik,” Critics Choice winner “Speak Now” and Golden Globe winner “Io Sì.” Visual Effects is a toss-up between The Midnight Sky and Tenet, two films that woefully underperformed across the board. Costume Design is wide open and full of previous winners and nominees. Makeup and Hairstyling feels like a tussle between Hillbilly Elegy and Ma Rainey but how can you ignore the stunning work in Pinocchio, which also scored a surprise costume nod?

One of the races I’m most excited about is Film Editing. Where The Trial of the Chicago 7 once seemed like an easy winner (when it was the temporary Best Picture frontrunner) is going to be great race between Sound of Metal and Nomadland. Each bring with them reasons they can and should win before we get the bonafides: the film editing (ACE) and two sound guilds (CAS and MPSE). While neither seem like traditional film editing winners, Nomadland could win this in part of an overall sweep and Sound of Metal, if it’s the Sound frontrunner many think it is, should be able to join 13 of the last 20 winners – including the last seven in a row – that have won both film editing and at least one sound award. The combining of the sound awards this year might make that a tougher battle for Sound of Metal but with its unique presentation of sound of putting the audience in the position of a person’s rapidly losing their hearing might push it over the top. But its biggest advantage is that neither Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are nominated in Sound, paving the way for SoM to take both wins. The last winner in Film Editing to miss a Sound nomination was Martin Scorsese’s The Departed (2006), which ended up winning Best Picture and Director as well.

As we end the month, we are still four weeks from the Oscars (whose producers continue to make bizarre and illogical choices about the show) with April being a nonstop onslaught of guild and industry awards. First up will be the Make Up & Hair Stylist guild on the 3rd, Screen Actors Guild on the 4th and Visual Effects Society on the 6th. The 10th will bring us the Art Directors guild, Directors Guild and night one of BAFTA, which will unveil its big awards on the 11th.

Buckle up, it’s going to be a wild month. But that’s why we’re here, right?

Here are my ranked Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions in all 23 categories for March 26, 2021.

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, Spirit plus ACE, MPSE
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers

2. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, CDG, CSA, DGA, MUAH, PGA, WGA
Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers

3. Minari (A24) – SAG, PGA, Spirit plus ACE
Christina Oh, Producer

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, SAG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, CSA, DGA, MPSE, WGA
Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers

5. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – PGA, Spirit First Feature plus ACE, CAS, CSA, MPSE, WGA
Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers

6. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, GG
David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers

7. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – PGA plus CSA, CDG, WGA
Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers

8. Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG plus ACE, ADG, ASC, CAS, MPSE, MUAH, VES
Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers

DIRECTOR

1. Chloé Zhao for Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – GG, BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, Spirit
2. Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, DGA, GG, Spirit
3. Lee Isaac Chung for Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, DGA, Spirit
4. David Fincher for Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, DGA, GG
5. Thomas Vinterberg for Another Round (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer) – BAFTA

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
2. Anthony Hopkins in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
3. Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
4. Steven Yeun in Minari (A24) – BFCA, SAG, Spirit
5. Gary Oldman in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG

BEST ACTRESS

1. Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
2. Frances McDormand in Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
3. Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Hulu) – BFCA, GG
4. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG, Spirit
5. Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, GG, SAG, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Sacha Baron Cohen in The Trial of the Chicago 7 – BFCA, GG, SAG
3. Leslie Odom, Jr. in One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, SAG
4. Paul Raci in Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit 
5. LaKeith Stanfield in Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Yuh-Jung Youn in Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, SAG, Spirit
2. Maria Bakalova in Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG*, SAG (*in lead)
3. Amanda Seyfried in Mank (Netflix) – BFCA, GG
4. Olivia Colman in The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BFCA, GG, SAG
5. Glenn Close in Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, SAG

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, USC (WGA ineligible)
Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao

2. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG (WGA ineligible)
Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan (Amazon Studios) – WGA
Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad

4. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA , USC, WGA
Screenplay by Kemp Powers 

5. The White Tiger (Amazon Studios) – WGA
Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, WGA
Written by Emerald Fennell

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA , GG, WGA
Written by Aaron Sorkin

3. Minari (A24) – BFCA (WGA ineligible)
Written by Lee Isaac Chung

4. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, WGA
Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance

5. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – WGA
Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas

FILM EDITING

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA
Mikkel E. G. Nielsen

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit
Chloé Zhao

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – ACE (drama), BAFTA, BFCA
Alan Baumgarten

4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) – ACE (comedy), BAFTA
Frédéric Thoraval

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA, Spirit
Joshua James Richards

2. Mank (Netflix) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
Erik Messerschmidt

3. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BAFTA
Sean Bobbitt

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – ASC, BAFTA, BFCA
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix) – ASC
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix) – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA
Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale

2. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – ADG, BAFTA, BFCA
Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – ADG, BFCA
Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton

4. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics) – BAFTA
Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone

5. Tenet (Warner Bros) – ADG, BFCA
Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Ann Roth

2. Emma. (Focus Features) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Alexandra Byrne

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, CDG
Trish Summerville

4. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures) – BFCA, CDG
Bina Daigeler

5. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – CDG
Massimo Cantini Parrini

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x3)
Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH (x2)
Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson

3. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions) – BAFTA, MUAH
Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

4. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, MUAH
Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff

5. Emma.(Focus Features) – BFCA
Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste

2. Minari (A24) – BAFTA, BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Emile Mosseri

3. Mank (Netflix) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, BFCA, GG, HMMA, SCL
James Newton Howard

5. Da 5 Bloods  (Netflix) – HMMA, SCL
Terence Blanchard

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, SCL
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson

2. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, GG, HMMA
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashwort

3. “Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se) (Netflix) – BFCA, HMMA, GG, SCL
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini

4. “Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros) – BFCA, HMMA
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas

5. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
 (Netflix) – GG, HMMA
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite

SOUND

1. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3)
Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh

2. Greyhound (Apple TV+) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x2)
Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman

3. Soul (Walt Disney/Pixar) – BAFTA, MPSE
Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

4. Mank (Netflix) – CAS, MPSE
Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin

5. News of the World (Universal Pictures) – BAFTA, CAS, MPSE (x3)
Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix) – BAFTA, VES
Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins

2. Tenet (Warner Bros) – BAFTA, BFCA, VES
Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher

3. Mulan (Disney+) – BAFTA, BFCA, VES
Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram

4. The One and Only Ivan (Walt Disney Pictures) – Annie, BAFTA, VES
Ivan Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez

5. Love and Monsters (Paramount Pictures)
Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Disney/Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Pete Docter and Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA
Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants

3. Onward (Pixar) – Annie, BAFTA, BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae

4. Over the Moon (Netflix) – BFCA, GG, PGA, VES
Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou

5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (Netflix) – Annie, BFCA
Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. My Octopus Teacher (Netflix) – BAFTA, DGA, PGA
2. Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster 

2. Time (Amazon Studios) – BFCA, CEH, IDA, PGA, Spirit
Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn

3. Collective (Magnolia Selects) – BAFTA, CEH, IDA, Spirit
Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana

4. Crip Camp (Netflix) – BFCA, IDA, Spirit
Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder

5. The Mole Agent (Gravitas Venures) – Spirit
Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark) (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer) – GG, BAFTA, BFCA
2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (NEON/SUPER LTD) – BAFTA, Spirit
3. Collective (Romania) (Magnolia Pictures) – BFCA
4. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia) (Samuel Goldwyn Mayer)
5. Better Days (Hong Kong) (Well Go USA)

ANIMATED SHORT

1. Burrow
Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat

2. If Anything Happens I Love You
Will McCormack and Michael Govier

3. Genius Loci
Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise

4. Opera
Erick Oh

5. Yes-People 
Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. Hunger Ward
Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman

2. Do Not Split
Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook

3. Colette
Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard

4. A Love Song for Latasha
Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

5. A Concerto Is a Conversation
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Two Distant Strangers
Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe

2. The Letter Room
Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan

3. Feeling Through
Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski

4. White Eye
Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

5. The Present
Farah Nabulsi

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.

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