Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Should Auld Pandemics Be Forgot?

Erik Anderson January 1, 2021

Happy New Year, everyone!

We made it out of 2020 but it doesn’t mean that Oscar predictions fall by the wayside just because we’re all hungover from drinking alone in a pandemic in hopes of trying to replicate fumbling towards a midnight kiss and instead embracing our poor, unassuming cats and dogs. But I digress.

It was a quiet week, awards-wise, all things considered. North Carolina, Chicago Indie Critics and the Alliance of Women Film Journalists announced nominations while the Greater Western New York Critics Association announced winners. Nothing really moved the needle with the exception of the surprisingly so far absent Mank making a bit of a comeback with the very new Discussing Film Critics group (only in their second year).

Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) continued to clean sweep of Best Director, while the film and its star Frances McDormand pull out ahead in their races, too. Unlike previous years, there is no clear critical favorite in Documentary Feature, with five films having won prizes so far. But, with LA and NY, Garrett Bradley’s Time is a bit ahead in that regard. International Feature Film is similar, with six films having won so far but four of them (Minari from the US, Bacurau from Brazil, Beanpole from Russia and Los Fuertes from Chile) are not official selections and can’t be Oscar-nominated.

Warner Bros finally committed to February 12, 2021 for the release of Judas and the Black Messiah and Paramount is finding itself in the final throes of existence as it sells the rights to The United States vs Billie Holiday to Hulu. That’s set for February 26 but no official word from Hulu on if its keeping that date or when the film’s first trailer will drop.

Here are my Frontrunner Friday Oscar predictions for January 1, 2021. For monthly predictions, click on each category title.

BEST PICTURE

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey, Chloé Zhao (producers)

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Stuart M. Besser, Matt Jackson, Marc Platt, Tyler Thompson (producers)

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington, Dany Wolf (producers)

4. Mank (Netflix)
David Fincher, Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth, Douglas Urbanski (producers)

5. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Jon Kilik, Spike Lee, Beatriz Levin, Lloyd Levin (producers)

6. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Gary Goetzman, Gregory Goodman, Gail Mutrux (producers)

7. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Philippe Carcassonne, Simon Friend, Jean-Louis Livi, David Parfitt, Christophe Spadone (producers)

8. Minari (A24)
Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Christina Oh (producers)

9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)
Charles D. King, Ryan Coogler, Shaka King (producers)

10. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Jess Wu Calder, Keith Calder, Jody Klein (producers)

BEST DIRECTOR (alphabetical by film)

1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

2. David Fincher – Mank (Netflix)

3. George C. Wolfe – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

4. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

5. Spike Lee – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

BEST ACTOR

1. Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

3. Anthony Hopkins – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

4. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)

5. Gary Oldman – Mank (Netflix)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)

2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)

3. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)

4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

5. Sidney Flanigan – Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros)

2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

3. Leslie Odom, Jr. – One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)

5. Mark Rylance – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amanda Seyfried – Mank (Netflix)

2. Olivia Colman – The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)

3. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari (A24)

4. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix)

5. Ellen Burstyn – Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao (based on the book “Nomadland: Surviving America in the Twenty-First Century” by Jessica Bruder)

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ruben Santiago-Hudson (based on the play “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” by August Wilson)

3. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller (based on the play “Le Père” by Florian Zeller)

4. One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Kemp Powers (based on the play “One Night in Miami…” by Kemp Powers)

5. First Cow (A24)
Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond (based on the novel “The Half Life” by Jonathan Raymond)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Aaron Sorkin

2. Mank (Netflix)
Jack Fincher

3. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

4. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features)
Emerald Fennell

5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (Focus Features)
Eliza Hittman

FILM EDITING

1. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Chloé Zhao

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Alan Baumgarten

3. Mank (Netflix)
Kirk Baxter

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
William Goldenberg

5. The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Yorgos Lamprinos

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Mank (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt

2. Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures)
Joshua James Richards

3. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Hoyte van Hoytema

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Dariusz Wolski

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Netflix)
Phedon Papamichael

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Donald Graham Burt (production designer), Jan Pascale (set decorator)

2. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Grant Major (production designer), Anne Kuljian (set decorator)

3. The Personal History of David Copperfield (Searchlight Pictures)
Cristina Casali (production designer), Charlotte Dirickx (set decorator)

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
David Crank (production designer), Elizabeth Keenan (set decorator)

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Mark Ricker (production designer), Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton (set decorators)

COSTUME DESIGN

1. Mank (Netflix)
Trish Summerville

2. Emma. (Focus Features)
Alexandra Byrne

3. Mulan (Walt Disney Pictures)
Bina Daigeler

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Ann Roth

5. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (Paramount Pictures)
Paolo Nieddu

MAKEUP and HAIRSTYLING

1. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

3. Hillbilly Elegy (Netflix) (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

4. Bill & Ted Face the Music (Orion Pictures)
Nominees TBD

5. Pinocchio (Roadside Attractions)
Nominees TBD

ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross (and John Batiste, if eligible)

2. Mank (Netflix)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross

3. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
James Newton Howard

4. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Terence Blanchard

5. Minari (A24)
Emile Mosseri

ORIGINAL SONG

1. “lo Sì” (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (Netflix)
Written by Diane Warren

2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (Netflix)
Written by Christopher Curtis, Marjorie Duffield & Helen Park

3. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami… (Amazon Studios)
Written by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

4. “Husavik (My Hometown)” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (Netflix)
Written by Atli Örvarsson

5. “Just Sing” from Trolls: World Tour (DreamWorks Animation)
Written by Justin Timberlake, Ludwig Göransson, Max Martin and Sarah Aarons

SOUND

1. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

2. Soul (Pixar)
Nominees TBD

3. Sound of Metal (Amazon Studios)
Nominees TBD

4. News of the World (Universal Pictures)
Nominees TBD

5. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Midnight Sky (Netflix)
Nominees TBD

2. Tenet (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

3. Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

4. Mulan (Disney+)
Nominees TBD

5. Wonder Woman 1984 (Warner Bros)
Nominees TBD

ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Soul (Pixar)
Pete Docter, Dana Murray

2. Wolfwalkers (Apple TV+/Cartoon Saloon/GKIDS)
Stéphan Roelants, Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young, Nora Twomey

3. Over the Moon (Netflix)
Glen Keane, Peilin Chou, Gennie Rim

4. Earwig and the Witch (Studio Ghibli)
Gorô Miyazaki

5. Onward (Pixar)
Dan Scanlon, Kori Rae

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Collective (Magnolia Selects)
Alexander Nanau

2. Welcome to Chechnya (HBO Documentary Films)
David France

3. Time (Amazon Studios)
Garrett Bradley

4. Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution (Netflix)
James Lebrecht, Nicole Newnham

5. The Truffle Hunters (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael Dweck, Gregory Kershaw

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM

1. Another Round (Denmark)

2. Night of the Kings (Ivory Coast)

3. Collective (Romania)

4. A Sun (Taiwan)

5. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia-Herzegovina)

December 18, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: No ‘Mank’ land

December 11, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Juda-as! Juda-ah-as! Judas! Ka-luu-ya!

December 4, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: No Country for Nice Men

November 20, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: When the Levee Broke

November 13, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Glenn Close

November 6, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: Lady Sings the Blues

October 30, 2020: Frontrunner Friday Oscar Predictions: The landscape, it is a changin’

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.