Frontrunner Friday: Who’s On Top in the 2018 Oscar Race?
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Kathryn Bigelow’s Untitled Detroit Riots Projects remains on top this week, as does her pole position in Best Director.
Release date announcements from The Weinstein Company on The Current War (Dec. 22) and Mary Magdalene (Nov. 24) spurred some change and movement for the two films and their acting prospects (Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Shannon, Rooney Mara and Joaquin Phoenix). TWC is notorious for flip-flopping dates until it figures out what it’s #1 of the year will be (see Gold and The Founder last season).
The red-band trailer for Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri inspired laughing fits over McDonagh’s deeply profane dialogue and Frances McDormand’s perfect, deadpan delivery but is it going to Oscar material? (Whatever that even is anymore…) At the moment, it’s McDonagh’s screenplay and Oscar-winner McDormand who gain the most as each land in the top 5 of their respective categories.
Meryl Streep (The Post) unseats Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul) in Best Actress. It’s only March but at the moment there aren’t many narratives to upset Streep so expect her to reign for quite some time. Oscar winners Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel), Jennifer Lawrence (mother!), Helen Mirren (The Leisure Seeker), and Frances McDormand will give chase, though. Another Oscar winner, Halle Berry, could be a major player depending on who picks up and distributes her L.A. riots film, Kings. Berry is still the only black Best Actress winner in the Academy’s 89-year history and has yet to be nominated again since her win over 15 years ago.
Gary Oldman (Darkest War) is even stronger, earning the first perfect score (100) and so early in the season. His closest competitor, three-time Best Actor winner Daniel Day-Lewis (Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Fashion Project) could be facing a 2018 release. That would be great news for Oldman, especially since both films are being distributed by Focus Features.
Best Picture
| BEST PICTURE | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri (Fox Searchlight) | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 97 |
| 2 | Get Out (Universal) | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 86 |
| 3 | Lady Bird (A24) | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 80 |
| 4 | The Shape of Water (Fox Searchlight) | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 75 |
| 5 | Dunkirk (Warner Bros) | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 57 |
| 6 | Call Me By Your Name (Sony Pictures Classics) | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 49 |
| 7 | The Post (20th Century Fox) | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 46 |
| 8 | I, Tonya (Neon) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 29 |
| 9 | The Florida Project (A24) | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | ||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| All the Money in the World (Sony) | ||||||||||||
| Baby Driver (Sony) | ||||||||||||
| The Big Sick (Amazon/Lionsgate) | ||||||||||||
| Blade Runner 2049 (Warner Bros) | ||||||||||||
| Darkest Hour (Focus Features) | ||||||||||||
| Molly's Game (STX Entertainment) | ||||||||||||
| Mudbound (Netflix) | ||||||||||||
| Phantom Thread (Focus Features) | ||||||||||||
| Wonder Woman (Warner Bros) | ||||||||||||
| Wonder (Lionsgate) |
Best Director
| BEST DIRECTOR | Erik Anderson | Bryan Bonafede | Greg Howard | Evan Kost | Jason Osiason | Kenneth Polishchuk | Denizcan Sürücü | Richard Anthony | Şükrü Söğüt | Matt Dinn | TOTAL POINTS |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guillermo del Toro - The Shape of Water | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 95 |
| 2 | Christopher Nolan - Dunkirk | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 86 |
| 3 | Martin McDonagh - Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 74 |
| 4 | Jordan Peele - Get Out | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 72 |
| 5 | Greta Gerwig - Lady Bird | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 67 |
| 6 | Sean Baker - The Florida Project | 8 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 42 |
| 7 | Luca Guadagnino - Call Me By Your Name | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 8 | Steven Spielberg - The Post | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 38 |
| 9 | Paul Thomas Anderson - Phantom Thread | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 19 | |
| 10 | Denis Villeneuve - Blade Runner 2049 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 6 | ||||
| 11 | Dee Rees - Mudbound | 10 | 9 | 3 | ||||||||
| 12 | Ridley Scott - All the Money in the World | 9 | 2 | |||||||||
| 12 | Joe Wright - Darkest Hour | 10 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||
| OTHER CONTENDERS | ||||||||||||
| Craig Gillespie - I, Tonya | ||||||||||||
| Patty Jenkins - Wonder Woman |
Next: Actor and Actress
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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