Fri. Jul 10th, 2020

Oscar Predictions: This Time Last Year – 82.5% Accuracy in Top 6 Categories


It’s no secret that AwardsWatch likes to brag about its Oscar prediction prowess but how well do we actually do? Pretty great, actually. This time last year AwardsWatch’s Gold Rush Gang clocked in at 82.5% accuracy with the eventual Oscar nominees in the Top 6 categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. This week last year charts for Best Adapted and Original Screenplays were not logged that week but show up here and here a week and a half later.

Admittedly, we were a bit behind on The Grand Budapest Hotel being such a huge Oscar juggernaut last year. The weird thing with Foxcatcher getting in Best Director but losing out on Best Picture and Gone Girl‘s near total snub caught many of us by surprise. But, our stats stand as very strong in all categories and even a nice 100% accuracy in Best Actor.

Best Picture – 6/8 eventual nominees – 75%

Although we chart on a possibility of 10 nominees, I’m basing our accuracy on our actual top 8 since that ended up being the number of Best Picture nominees. We had Interstellar, Unbroken, Gone Girl, Foxcatcher instead of Whiplash (#12), and The Grand Budapest Hotel (#13). Best Picture winner Birdman was at #3.

Best Director – 4/5 – 80%

We fell into the ‘Christopher Nolan has to eventually be nominated’ trap and had him in the top 5 instead of Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel. Oscar winner Alejandro G. Iñárritu at #2.

Best Actor 5/5 – 100%

As you can see, we had 100% accuracy on the nominees but still had Michael Keaton at #1 and eventual winner Eddie Redmayne at #3.

Best Actress – 4/5 – 80%

We had Amy Adams instead of Marion Cotillard, who sat at #8. Oscar winner Julianne Moore was #1.

Best Supporting Actor – 4/5 – 80%

Josh Brolin instead of Robert Duvall (uncharted). We were a bit late to Robert Duvall’s reign as the #5 placeholder last November. Oscar winner J.K. Simmons was at #1.

Best Supporting Actress – 4/5 – 80%

Riding high as a hopeful coattail nomination, Kristen Stewart was in our top 5 instead of eventual nominee Laura Dern, who was in at #8. Oscar winner Patricia Arquette was at #1.

The most recent Gold Rush Gang predictions for the 2016 Oscar nominations came out this week.

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