Screen Actors Guild Preview and Predictions from The Gold Rush Gang

Well, that Producers Guild win for Birdman was fun, right? We might have a real Oscar race on our hands now. While a PGA win is generally a stronger predictor for the Best Picture Oscar than the SAG ensemble prize, a combination of the two can be a pretty hard thing to beat. The last film to win both the PGA and SAG and then lose the Oscar was Little Miss Sunshine in 2006. Now, that film did not have its directors nominated and this year Birdman’s Alejandro G. Iñárritu is. But, Birdman missed out on a very crucial Film Editing nomination and as we all know, no film has won Best Picture without it since 1980’s Ordinary People. Many pointed to this stat during the Brokeback Mountain/Crash debacle. Brokeback won the PGA, Crash won the SAG but only the latter had a Film Editing nomination at the Oscars.

But, let’s get to tonight’s Screen Actors Guild predictions and possibilities. Generally speaking, the individual acting categories feel pretty locked up. All Gold Rush Gang members are in agreement that Michael Keaton (Birdman), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) and Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) will be prizewinners tonight. That isn’t to say that there aren’t potential upsets coming. Eddie Redmayne could triumph over Keaton here. His film’s Cast nomination is a big deal and he’s definitely considered nipping at Keaton’s heels tonight. Moore should be pretty comfortable; her trajectory, plus this being her first SAG win for a motion picture will be too strong to leave the door open for anyone else. I’m sure people are still trying to make a case for Jennifer Aniston (Cake) here and her contingent of television fans (and apparently the stunt community, if you believe Scott Feinberg), but it’s not going to happen. The Supporting categories feel the same way. Robert Duvall (The Judge) has already won a SAG in Supporting so there won’t be a need from the group to award the veteran as we’ve seen them do in the past (Ruby Dee, Gloria Stuart).  There could be a case for Edward Norton (Birdman) though. He’s probably a much closer 2nd than most would think. Arquette might have some competition from Birdman‘s Emma Stone if that film ends up being a juggernaut but with Arquette’s body of work in both film and television she should be secure. The real showdown is the Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture and it has The Gold Rush Gang divided. Evan, Kenneth and Matt M. are all on Team Boyhood for the win while the rest of us are seeing Birdman prevail. That still leaves room for something with a massive cast like The Grand Budapest Hotel to come in a take it and really throw a wrench into the race. Budapest has been performing brilliantly this season, beating Birdman for the Comedy Globe two weeks ago and tying that film for the most Oscar nominations this year. But, no film has won the SAG ensemble award without an additional individual nomination since Return of the King and that film was already predestined to win the Best Picture Oscar. I know I bring up The Imitation Game nearly every time there is a prediction to be made but it’s become clear that despite Harvey Weinstein’s aggressive efforts, that film appears destined to be one that goes home empty-handed when it comes to actual hardware (those 17 Audience Award certificates aside). That said, with no clear frontrunner there is a chance for something like the bland mediocrity of The Imitation Game to sneak in.

Speaking of PGA/SAG crossover, here is the list of films that have won both and which ones turned them into Oscar gold:

Apollo 13
American Beauty
Chicago
Return of the King
Little Miss Sunshine
No Country For Old Men
Slumdog Millionaire
The King’s Speech
Argo

That’s seven of nine (cue Star Trek: Voyager fans), a pretty strong stat. Of the two that missed, Apollo 13 has the unfortunate honor of also winning the DGA, getting snubbed in Best Director at the Oscars, and then losing it all. It’s an exception that will probably live forever in Oscar lore. But something that always needs to be considered is the change in ballots and amount of nominees since 2009. Most old stats can be thrown out of the window as a result but it’s always good to have them as a foundation from which to start from.

So, where does that leave us? Is Boyhood still a frontrunner for the Cast award or has the industry started chipping away at the critics favorite and gone on their own? We’ve seen it happen before, with The Social Network and The King’s Speech being the most recent and most glaring. I’ve read some critics and bloggers claim that the Academy is directly and intentionally avoiding Boyhood as a winner, as if they exist just to piss off critics. Now sure, AMPAS is not a group of film critics. Neither is the Screen Actors Guild or the Producers Guild or the Directors Guild. But they do have crossover members so if they deviate from a critics’ fave there’s no reason to think that it’s much more than strong contingents in each guild represented in their respective AMPAS categories.

GOLD RUSH GANG SCREEN ACTORS GUILD PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Boyhood – Evan, Kenneth, Matt M.
Birdman – Erik, Alexander, David, Jason, Peter, Richard

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Michael Keaton, Birdman – Erik, Alexander, David, Evan, Jason, Kenneth, Matt M., Peter, Richard

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Julianne Moore, Still Alice – Erik, Alexander, David, Evan, Jason, Kenneth, Matt M., Peter, Richard

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash – Erik, Alexander, David, Evan, Jason, Kenneth, Matt M., Peter, Richard

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood – Erik, Alexander, David, Evan, Jason, Kenneth, Matt M., Peter, Richard

FULL LIST OF SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

STEVE CARELL / John du Pont – “FOXCATCHER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH / Alan Turing – “THE IMITATION GAME” (The Weinstein Company)
JAKE GYLLENHAAL / Louis Bloom – “NIGHTCRAWLER” (Open Road Films)
MICHAEL KEATON / Riggan – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Stephen Hawking – “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING” (Focus Features)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

JENNIFER ANISTON / Claire Bennett – “CAKE” (Cinelou Films)
FELICITY JONES / Jane Hawking – “THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING” (Focus Features)
JULIANNE MOORE / Alice Howland-Jones – “STILL ALICE” (Sony Pictures Classics)
ROSAMUND PIKE / Amy Dunne – “GONE GIRL” (20th Century Fox)
REESE WITHERSPOON / Cheryl Strayed – “WILD” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

ROBERT DUVALL / Joseph Palmer – “THE JUDGE” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
ETHAN HAWKE / Mason, Sr. – “BOYHOOD” (IFC Films)
EDWARD NORTON / Mike – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MARK RUFFALO / Dave Schultz – “FOXCATCHER” (Sony Pictures Classics)
J.K. SIMMONS / Fletcher – “WHIPLASH” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

PATRICIA ARQUETTE / Olivia – “BOYHOOD” (IFC Films)
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY / Joan Clarke – “THE IMITATION GAME” (The Weinstein Company)
EMMA STONE / Sam – “BIRDMAN” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
MERYL STREEP / The Witch – “INTO THE WOODS” (Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
NAOMI WATTS / Daka – “ST. VINCENT” (The Weinstein Company)

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

BIRDMAN (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
ZACH GALIFIANAKIS / Jake
MICHAEL KEATON / Riggan
EDWARD NORTON / Mike
ANDREA RISEBOROUGH / Laura
AMY RYAN / Sylvia
EMMA STONE / Sam
NAOMI WATTS / Lesley

BOYHOOD (IFC Films)
PATRICIA ARQUETTE / Olivia
ELLAR COLTRANE / Mason
ETHAN HAWKE / Mason, Sr.
LORELEI LINKLATER / Samantha

THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
F. MURRAY ABRAHAM / Mr. Moustafa
MATHIEU AMALRIC / Serge X.
ADRIEN BRODY / Dmitri
WILLEM DAFOE / Jopling
RALPH FIENNES / M. Gustave
JEFF GOLDBLUM / Dep. Kovacs
HARVEY KEITEL / Ludwig
JUDE LAW / Young Writer
BILL MURRAY / M. Ivan
EDWARD NORTON / Henckels
TONY REVOLORI / Zero
SAOIRSE RONAN / Agatha
JASON SCHWARTZMAN / M. Jean
LÉA SEYDOUX / Clotilde
TILDA SWINTON / Madame D
TOM WILKINSON / Author
OWEN WILSON / M. Chuck

THE IMITATION GAME (The Weinstein Company)
MATTHEW BEARD / Peter Hilton
BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH / Alan Turing
CHARLES DANCE / Commander Denniston
MATTHEW GOODE / Hugh Alexander
RORY KINNEAR / Nock
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY / Joan Clarke
ALLEN LEECH / John Cairncross
MARK STRONG / Stewart Menzies

THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING (Focus Features)
CHARLIE COX / Jonathan Hellyer Jones
FELICITY JONES / Jane Hawking
SIMON McBURNEY / Frank Hawking
EDDIE REDMAYNE / Stephen Hawking
DAVID THEWLIS / Dennis Sciama
EMILY WATSON / Beryl Wilde

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

FURY (Columbia Pictures)
GET ON UP (Universal Pictures)
THE HOBBIT: THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES (Warner Bros. Pictures)
UNBROKEN (Universal Pictures)
X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST (20th Century Fox)

FULL LIST OF PRESENTERS

Patricia Arquette
Matthew Beard
Adrien Brody
Ellar Coltrane
Kevin Costner
Laverne Cox
Bryan Cranston
Benedict Cumberbatch
Eric Dane
Viola Davis
Colin Farrell
Carrie Fisher
Jeff Goldblum
Ethan Hawke
Ken Howard
Felicity Jones
Rashida Jones
Michael Keaton
Lenny Kravitz
Allen Leech
Lorelai Linklater
Matthew McConaughey
Matt McGorry
Edward Norton
Lupita Nyong’o
Eddie Redmayne
Tony Revolori
Julia Roberts
Emmy Rossum
Andy Samberg
Liev Schreiber
JK Simmons
Emma Stone
Reese Witherspoon

The 21st Screen Actors Guild Awards will air live on the TNT network tonight, Sunday, January 25th at 5:00pm PST. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @awards_watch and check back with awardswatch.com for instant live updates of the winners.