2014 EMMYS: Final Winner Predictions RANKED feat. The Good Wife, Breaking Bad, Veep, The Normal Heart and Sherlock

While The Normal Heart is definitely poised to win this, watch out for Sherlock to spoil. The show did very well in the Creative Arts Emmys last weekend but that doesn’t always translate into Primetime success. It’s a two-horse race here and The Normal Heart has a healthy lead.

Although it’s American Horror Story‘s best year, nomination-wise, it’s not beating Fargo. Huge buzz, great ratings and likely wins elsewhere put it far ahead.

Another competition between Fargo and Sherlock….and Fargo. The first episode of Fargo should manage a win (it has full support here) but do not count out Sherlock or Fargo‘s other episode, “Buridan’s Ass” (the one with the snowstorm shootout) to possibly take this win. Ryan Murphy’s direction of The Normal Heart was one of its most criticized elements and we’re not looking at him to spoil here.

Now, writing is a different story. While most of us originally The Normal Heart winning this pretty easily, votes are now very scattered to include Fargo and Sherlock. The Larry Kramer-penned AIDS drama (based on his play) still has the most votes but it’s on shaky ground.

This is a pretty juicy category that actually has four realistic possibilities. While earlier predictions put Mark Ruffalo far out in front, that is the case no more. Our experts are split evenly between him and Billy Bob Thornton for Fargo but Martin Freeman will also be heavily featured in Benedict Cumberbatch’s submission as well. It’s another real toss-up and an exciting race for Emmy night.

Cicely Tyson in The Trip to Bountiful losing this would be…surprising, to say the least. While most of us think American Horror Story‘s Jessica Lange will be the runner-up, it’s by a large margin. This was one of those wins that was easy to call as soon as the casting announcement was made.

One thing that hasn’t wavered for The Normal Heart has been Matt Bomer winning this category. Despite sharing it with three other cast members (sorry, Taylor Kitsch), his was the biggest, the most sympathetic. That said, we’re watching out for Martin Freeman in Sherlock, the same way we are for him in Lead Actor. He’s all over the place this year and could upset.

With only one dissension, Fargo‘s Allison Tolman looks to take this. Chris is choosing Julia Robert’s turn as a wheelchair-bound doctor in The Normal Heart to prevail. Interestingly, only two of those picking Tolman to win have Roberts in 2nd place. American Horror Story‘s Kathy Bates (a 12-time Emmy favorite) is the chosen spoiler in this category.

Another 3/3 split, this time between two former winners; last year’s winner The Voice and 7-time winner The Amazing Race. Only two shows have ever beaten The Amazing Race here; The Voice and Top Chef. Top Chef has not repeated that win and we don’t know if The Voice was also just an anomaly. And since this category and Reality Host have existed together not one time have the two matched up so Jane Lynch’s win at the Creative Arts Emmys for Reality Host (Hollywood Game Night) means nothing here. It seems like The Voice has a good trajectory to repeat but The Amazing Race coming back to win here will surprise no one.

After finally breaking The Daily Show‘s 10-year winning streak, The Colbert Report is back to fight for a repeat win against upstart Jimmy Fallon, who has the buzz and another new Emmy. On top of that, Jimmy Fallon gets featured not only in the submission for The Tonight Show but also in Saturday Night Live‘s as they submitted the “Host: Jimmy Fallon” episode. If he wins here, credit goes to Federico picking him.