2018 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (November)

Erik Anderson November 3, 2017

Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) holds a commanding lead in Best Director once again, this time free of the tie with Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water), who falls back to #2. The never-nominated Nolan is all but assured his place at the Best Director table after his perceived snubs for The Dark Knight and Inception, both of which earned a ton of nominations, including Best Picture for the latter. del Toro is still in this race, to be sure, but it will be interesting to see if these end up duking it out throughout the season’s critics and industry accolades.

Where it gets really fun though is 3-5, or in this month’s case, 3-4-4 as there is a tie for 4th place. A single point separates Steven Spielberg (The Post), Martin McDonaugh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name). It’s a tight race for the final five and any number of them could see themselves at the podium on Oscar night. That isn’t to dismiss the chances of the rest of the players in this race as Jordan Peele (Get Out), Sean Baker (The Florida Project) and Joe Wright (Darkest Hour) are definitely in the mix.

We have two strong female contenders trying to push their way through this crowd of men as well; Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird and Dee Rees for Mudbound. There are also the outside chances for Oscar-winner Angelina Jolie to be recognized for First They Killed My Father, the Cambodian submission for the Foreign Language Film Oscar, and Patty Jenkins, who directed the highest grossing superhero origin film of all time with Wonder Woman. We haven’t had a female nominee in this category since Kathryn Bigelow became the first female winner here for 2009’s The Hurt Locker. Bigelow was an early, early contender this year before Detroit was released but now seems like the longest of shots. Sofia Coppola, a previous nominee here and winner for Original Screenplay (Lost in Translation) is also a lower-tier contender for The Beguiled. Rees being nominated would make Oscar history as she would be the first black female nominee ever.

Denis Villeneuve (Blade Runner 2049) has been up and down like a yo-yo all year and this month he’s down once again, and out of the top 10. We have one debut this month, Craig Gillespie for I, Tonya.

Something interesting to note is that, in some ways, Best Director this year is shaping up to look a bit like Best Director last year. A wealth of likely first-time nominees and one veteran who is already a winner here. Although Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread) and Villeneuve are previous nominees, neither feel like they’re in top 5 territory at the moment. But, it’s early still. The race is just starting to take shape.

Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Director for November from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.

Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry

	BEST DIRECTOR	ERIK ANDERSON	BRYAN BONAFEDE	GREG HOWARD	EVAN KOST	JASON OSIASON	KENNETH POLISHCHUK	DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ	RICHARD ANTHONY	ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT	MATT DINN	TOTAL POINTS

1	Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	98
2	Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water	1	2	1	2	3	2	2	2	2	2	91
3	Steven Spielberg – The Post	3	5	3	3	5	3	5	6	4	5	68
4	Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	4	4	7	4	4	4	4	5	3	4	67
4	Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name	6	3	4	5	2	7	3	3	7	3	67

6	Jordan Peele – Get Out	5	6	9	7	7	5	6	4	5	6	50
7	Sean Baker – The Florida Project	7	7	5	6	6	6	7	7	6	8	45
8	Joe Wright – Darkest Hour	8		8	8	9	9	8	9	8	9	23
9	Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread		9	6	9	8				9	10	15
10	Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird		8			10	10		8		7	12
11	Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049	9			10			9	10	10		7
12	Dee Rees – Mudbound	10	10	10				10				4
13	Craig Gillespie – I, Tonya						8					3

OTHER CONTENDERS
Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game
Alexander Payne – Downsizing
Angelina Jolie – First They Killed My Father
Clint Eastwood – The 15:17 to Paris
Darren Aronofsky – mother!
David Gordon Green – Stronger
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris – Battle of the Sexes
Kathryn Bigelow – Detroit
Michael Gracey – The Greatest Showman
Patty Jenkins – Wonder Woman
Reginald Hudlin – Marshall
Richard Linklater – Last Flag Flying
Scott Cooper – Hostiles
Sofia Coppola – The Beguiled
Stephen Frears – Victoria and Abdul
Todd Haynes – Wonderstruck
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Killing of a Sacred Deer

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Erik Anderson

Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.

He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.