2018 Oscar Predictions: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (May) – Moore and Leo Hold, Kidman and Robbie Have Big Debuts
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Some bigger changes than usual this month with a top 5 contender dropping out big time and one massive debut.
Julianne Moore stays strong at #1 with all Gold Rush Gang members, save Jason, giving her their top votes. Moore’s film, Wonderstruck, is set for its world premiere at Cannes in just a few short weeks where it will compete in competition for the Palme d’Or. It was also announced yesterday that after last year’s successful collaboration on Manchester by the Sea, Amazon is once again teaming with Roadside Attractions to release the film and is giving it one of the best awards season release dates – October 20th. That is the same weekend that this year’s Best Picture Oscar winner Moonlight was released.
Melissa Leo holds on tight to #2 once again with her lesbian nun drama Novitiate, Kristin Scott Thomas (Darkest Hour) wrangles back the sole #3 slot and Michelle Pfeiffer’s hopeful renaissance this year sees an uptick this month, pushing her to fourth. Pfeiffer has HBO’s The Wizard of Lies later this month and word is it’s an Emmy-winning performance. That could keep her buzz going through the summer and right into the October 13th release of mother!
The big drop this month is Hong Chau in Downsizing. Every aspect of the film saw deep hits this month and Chau drops from #3 last month all the way to #12 this month. Recovery seems unlikely but there’s a lot of time between now and December 22nd when the film is released. Another drop this month, but for much more positive reasons, is Claire Foy in Breathe. She was #6 in Supporting Actress last month but then a little bird told me she would be pushed in Lead and that landed her smack in the top 5 of Best Actress for May. Gold Rush Gang member Richard is hedging his bets a bit, placing her 5th here and 6th in Best Actress.
The biggest debut this month is Nicole Kidman. It’s already been a great year for Kidman with career best reviews for HBO’s Big Little Lies that could net her an Emmy for Lead Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie in September. But, the actress also has an astonishing four projects hitting Cannes this month, including two films in competition; The Beguiled and The Killing of a Sacred Deer. The Beguiled, from Oscar winner Sofia Coppola hits theaters in June from Focus Features but when A24 announced that The Killing of a Sacred Deer, from Oscar nominee Yorgos Lanthimos (The Lobster) was being given a prime awards release date (November 3rd) we all took notice. If she were able to snag the Cannes actress prize this month for the film, her buzz will be enormous and solidify her contention here.
Another strong debut comes from Margot Robbie in Goodbye Christopher Robin, the biopic about Winnie the Pooh creator A.A. Milne. She rockets from the Other Contenders list up to #7 this month. Robbie is also in possible contention in Best Actress with I, Tonya which may or may not be released in 2017. It’s hard to say what would happen if that film does become a 2017 release in terms of her likelihood here. A double nomination seems like a stretch for such a new actress to the awards plate and this role has a more traditional Oscar feel to it but then, the Oscars just left tradition in the dust this year so anything can happen. If I, Tonya is released this year it will be fun to see if Robbie and her I, Tonya co-star Allison Janney go head to head with each other in this category.
Millicent Simmonds (Wonderstruck) and Juno Temple (Wonder Wheel) also debut this month, with single votes at the bottom of the pack.
Here are the 2018 Oscar predictions for Best Supporting Actress for May from the Gold Rush Gang. Keep an eye on all of the Gold Rush Gang’s 2018 Oscar predictions updated LIVE throughout the month.
Green – moves up from last month
Red – moves down from last month
Blue – debut/new entry
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SUPPORTING ACTRESS
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ERIK
ANDERSON |
BRYAN BONAFEDE
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GREG HOWARD
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EVAN
KOST |
JASON OSIASON
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KENNETH
POLISHCHUK |
DENIZCAN SÜRÜCÜ
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RICHARD
ANTHONY |
ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT
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MATT DINN
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TOTAL
POINTS |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 99 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Melissa Leo – Novitiate | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 89 | ||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Kristin Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 77 | ||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Michelle Pfeiffer – mother! | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 57 | ||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Nicole Kidman – The Killing of a Sacred Deer | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Mary J. Blige – Mudbound | 4 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 42 | ||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Margot Robbie – Goodbye Christopher Robin | 6 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 26 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Katherine Waterston – The Current War | 4 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 21 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Rachel McAdams – Disobedience | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 18 | ||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Vicky Krieps – Untitled P.T. Anderson Project | 3 | 9 | 6 | 15 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman | 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Hong Chau – Downsizing | 7 | 4 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Chloë Sevigny – Lean on Pete | 7 | 10 | 7 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | Julianne Moore – Suburbicon | 7 | 6 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 | Allison Janney – I, Tonya (possibly 2018) | 6 | 8 | 8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 16 | Claire Foy – Breathe | 5 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 | Riley Keough – Under the Silver Lake | 7 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | Holly Hunter – The Big Sick | 8 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 18 | Millicent Simmonds – Wonderstruck | 8 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel | 9 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | Kaela Settle – The Greatest Showman | 10 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.
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