The similarities between the Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress races this year are striking; the current frontrunners are not the critics’ favorites but somehow turned things around once the televised awards started and took their more over-the-top characters to the stage, grabbing trophy after trophy as their more subtle competitors’ sat watching from the sidelines.
Right now, Allison Janney (I, Tonya) is the clear favorite to win here and she earns a perfect score. Like Rockwell, Janney is extremely well-liked within the industry and that can be an important, if not deciding, factor. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird), like Willem Dafoe, is #2 across the board. This is also a category that could find itself turning the corner once voting starts if members start gravitating towards Lady Bird as a potential Best Picture winner. They’ll need to reward it somewhere else and Metcalf could be the beneficiary.
It’s interesting to note that Lesley Manville has parlayed her surprise nomination here (for the huge over-performer Phantom Thread) into the 3rd place standing. She just won the London Critics award and is a real contender to upset at BAFTA. Could she be a surprise winner here?
Three-time nominee and Oscar winner Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water) is now tied with Oscar winner Viola Davis as the most-nominated black actress in Academy Awards history but her nomination is her reward. First-time nominee Mary J. Blige (Mudbound) earned the distinction of being the first person ever to be nominated for an acting award and Original Song in the same year. She also also represents one of Mudbound‘s four nominations that finally broke streamer Netflix out of the Documentary category and into the Oscars’ mainstream.
Here are the Best Supporting Actress winner predictions from the Gold Rush Gang for Wednesday, January 31, 2018.
|BRYAN BONAFEDE||GREG HOWARD||EVAN
|ŞÜKRÜ SÖĞÜT||MATT DINN||TOTAL
|1||Allison Janney – I, Tonya||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||1||100|
|2||Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||2||90|
|3||Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread||3||3||5||3||4||3||4||4||3||3||75|
|4||Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water||5||4||4||5||3||4||3||3||5||4||70|
|5||Mary J. Blige – Mudbound||4||5||3||4||5||5||5||5||4||5||65|