Like Cinematography, Film Editing is one of this year’s category’s the Oscars’ producers decided to move to a commercial break and be inserted into the show later. It’s also one of the most up in the air categories of the year with the Best Picture frontrunner not nominated and three separate films taking industry honors for editing.
Film Editing used to be a category deeply connected to Best Picture but in the last decade that landscape has changed, largely due to the expanded BP era and the preferential ballot. All five nominees are also Best Picture nominees with two (maybe three) that have a decent shot at the top prize. Will that factor in? It might but since we have no frontrunner it’s hard to see how the Academy at large will vote. Will they go for one the most edited films like BAFTA winner Vice or Drama ACE winner Bohemian Rhapsody? Oscar has gone with the BAFTA winner six out of nine years since the expanded era (2009). They diverged for heavily cut action films like Baby Driver (2017), Rush (2013) and Senna (2011) over Oscar nominees and eventual winners. That BAFTA didn’t lean to First Man is still a bit of a surprise as it was the only nominee that would have fit that bill.
In the same years, the ACE Eddie (American Cinema Editors) has gone for the eventual Oscar winner five out of nine years and only for the Dramatic winner. There has been a winner of the ACE Eddie for Comedy since 2002’s Chicago. Not good news for The Favourite (unless it’s miraculously the Best Picture winner), but good for Bohemian Rhapsody.
Since we don’t have crossover we can’t make a crossover comparison (which would make this so much easier) so barring some shock win from BlacKkKlansman or Green Book (two potential Best Picture winners) it should be between Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody and each is likely to win other Oscars along with this one.
Vice is probably going to win Makeup & Hairstyling (another category pushed to commercial breaks) and is a spoiler contender in Best Actor with Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice winner Christian Bale. Bohemian Rhapsody is more likely winner in Best Actor for Globe, SAG and BAFTA winner Rami Malek as well as Sound Mixing and maybe even Sound Editing. Voters in all awards bodies have already showed that the controversies (and poor reviews) of Bohemian Rhapsody aren’t deterrents for them to keep voting for it. For Vice, another divisive film but in a different way, voters might simply lean with a film edited with a food processor. Either way, the two films with the worst editing are the only likely winners so toss a coin because nothing really matters.
Here are my ranked 2019 Oscar Predictions in Film Editing for February 13, 2019.
|1. VICE – Hank Corwin (BAFTA)
|2. BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY – John Ottman (ACE)
|3. BLACKkKLANSMAN – Barry Alexander Brown
|4. THE FAVOURITE – Yorgos Mavropsaridis (ACE)
|5. GREEN BOOK – Patrick J. Don Vito
|ACE – American Cinema Editors
|BAFTA – British Film Academy Awards