Sat. Aug 8th, 2020

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (April) – Amy Adams Still #1 but will Regina King Reign?

Regina King is ready to rule

[divider style=”normal” top=”20″ bottom=”20″]

We’re just in the second month of Oscar predictions for next year and Amy Adams is finally winning, right? As much as people probably want to see that happen, and as much as many people feel she’s deserved wins before, her path may not be so simple. Adams got the first of her FIVE nominations in Supporting Actress for Junebug in 2006, her big breakthrough and the only nomination for that film. She followed that up with three more supporting nominations, losing each time. She finally graduated to lead with her first Best Actress nomination in 2014 for American Hustle (a film that went 0-10 at the Oscars). Then came Arrival, a film that earned 8 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director. But Adams, who had earned Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA nominations for the role was shockingly snubbed. All of that creates the kind of narrative that works really well with the Academy and her turn in Adam McKay’s Dick Cheney biopic is, by all accounts, a win-worthy performance. And maybe, the Academy likes Adams more in supporting than they do in lead at this point.

For all of that though, I think two-time Emmy winner Regina King will give Adams a run for her money in If Beale Street Could Talk. It’s a rich character and King was unquestionably the right choice for it. The Academy isn’t shy about giving TV stars Oscars, we just saw it happen in this very category. Adams will 100% play the campaign game to the very end and if King can go toe-to-toe with her then we’ll have a great race. Here’s the catch – both films are from Annapurna. Will the burgeoning indie studio choose between the two or give them equal campaigns? It’s an impossible call at this stage but one that will be very interesting to watch play out.

This month, the chart doesn’t change one bit. Same names and placements as last month. It’s weird, but I could see this category panning out exactly like this. Realistically that won’t happen (nor would I be so bold as to claim five locks in April). Looking into the Other Contenders we can dig into Tatiana Maslany in Destroyer, Cynthia Erivo in Widows, Salma Hayek in The Hummingbird Project (if she’s not lead), Carol Kane in The Sisters Brothers, and maybe even Tilda Swinton in Luca Guadagnino’s Suspiria remake.

Plus, I know I shouldn’t have to say it but, don’t count out Meryl Streep (evergreen comment). Her role in Mary Poppins Returns is most likely of a cameo level as it was in Suffragette but if it’s any more than that, look out.

Here are my predictions for Best Supporting Actress as of April 18, 2018.

1. Amy Adams – Untitled Dick Cheney biopic
2. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots
4. Claire Foy – First Man
5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased
6. Sissy Spacek – Old Man and the Gun
7. Olivia Colman – The Favourite
8. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner
9. Laura Dern – JT Leroy
10. Michelle Yeoh – Crazy Rich Asians
Jennifer Aniston – Dumplin’
Annette Bening – Georgetown
Lucy Boynton – Bohemian Rhapsody
Linda Cardellini – Green Book
Zoe Chao – Where’d You Go, Bernadette
Cynthia Erivo – Widows
Adèle Exarchopoulos – The White Crow
Eiza González – The Women of Marwen
Denise Gough – Colette
Salma Hayek – The Hummingbird Project
Lena Headey – Fighting with My Family
Carol Kane – The Sisters Brothers
Diane Kruger – The Women of Marwen
Lisa Lu – Crazy Rich Asians
Teresa Mahoney – Peterloo
Tatiana Maslany – Destroyer
Rachel McAdams – Disobedience
Janelle Monáe – The Women of Marwen
Chloë Grace Moretz – Suspiria
Ruth Negga – Ad Astra
Alison Pill – Untitled Dick Cheney biopic
Charlotte Rampling – The Little Stranger
Elena Sofia Ricci – Loro
Emily Rios – If Beale Street Could Talk
Andrea Riseborough – Burden
Julia Roberts – Ben is Back
Saoirse Ronan – The Seagull
Amy Ryan – Beautiful Boy
Léa Seydoux – Kursk
Anna Deavere Smith – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns
Tilda Swinton – Suspiria
Holland Taylor – Gloria
Marina de Tavira – Roma
Katherine Waterston – Mid 90s
Jacki Weaver – Widows
Kristen Wiig – Where’d You Go, Bernadette

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (April)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (April)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTOR (April)

2019 Oscar Predictions: BEST ACTRESS (April)

2019 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTOR (April)

2019 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (April)

%d bloggers like this: