In its 25-year history, 17 films have earned four SAG nominations with six of those ending up winning here, Cast in a Motion Picture. Four films lost all four of their bids (Brokeback Mountain, The English Patient, Into the Wild and Manchester by the Sea). A Star Is Born is the only film this year with four nominations, but is it winning any? I can see it going the way of those four and winding up empty-handed. It’s simply not the frontrunner in any of its categories (Clayton Davis and Jenelle Riley disagree with me there – they both think Sam Elliott has this).
Although Green Book won the Golden Globe and PGA it’s not nominated here (which didn’t hurt last year’s Best Picture winner The Shape of Water) but can it overcome this snub or will a win from BlacKkKlansman or A Star Is Born reposition themselves in the Oscar race? I think BlacKkKlansman could come out on top here but watch out if Bohemian Rhapsody does.
I think Glenn Close (The Wife) will notch another win here as part of her Julianne Moore-level domination of all precursors (she has the Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice so far, the latter in a tie with Lady Gaga).
Actor in a Leading Role is definitely a race. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) would be the safe bet and getting this will all but ensure his Oscar win (unless any real backlash results from his director’s controversies). But watch out for Christian Bale (Vice) or possibly Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) to upset.
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) should be able to pick up a second Actor in a Supporting Role win (after Moonlight two years ago) and he’s come out of his film’s controversies the cleanest. Having a co-lead performance against true supporting roles doesn’t hurt him either. But, Elliott or Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) – both in SAG Cast nominees – could upset.
Actress in a Supporting Role is a real pickle. If you consider Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice winner Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) the Oscar frontrunner, who is not nominated here, then who do you pick? Are they they default winner? It would seem Amy Adams (Vice) is the most likely beneficiary of King’s SAG snub but watch out for Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) to potentially rain on Adams’ parade once again.
Looking at this year’s potential winners, especially in light of Tuesday’s Oscar nominations and the controversies that have hit some contenders, we could be in for some surprises. SAG voting, based on completed ballots of (potentially) 120,785 SAG-AFTRA members, ends today at noon. Winners will be announced live on TNT and TBS at the 25th Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday, January 27th at 5pm PT / 8pm ET.
Here are my predictions for the 25th Screen Actors Guild Awards for Motion Pictures.
Will win: BlacKkKlansman
Could win: A Star Is Born
Watch out for: Bohemian Rhapsody
Also rans: Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians
Will win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Could win: Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Watch out for: Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Also rans: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns; Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Could win: Christian Bale, Vice
Watch out for: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Also rans: Viggo Mortensen, Green Book; John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Will win: Amy Adams, Vice
Could win: Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Watch out for: Emma Stone, The Favourite
Also rans: Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place; Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Could win: Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Watch out for: Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Also rans: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy; Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Will win: Black Panther
Could win: Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Watch out for: Avengers: Infinity War
Also rans: Ant-Man and the Wasp, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs