2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST DIRECTOR (August)

As we enter the final week before the fall festivals begin, the true kick-off to awards season, Steven Spielberg remains atop my Best Director list for The Fabelmans. His first film ever to show at the Toronto International Film Festival, it’s a world premiere bow at arguably the biggest launch pad for your Oscar vehicle.

Spielberg proved his might last season, earning his 8th Best Director nod with his adaptation of West Side Story. As a late December release with no festival presence, the two-time directing winner earned Golden Globe and DGA nominations for the film. Telling a semi-autobiographical story of his childhood, an ode to his parents, uncles and the genesis of his love of film and filmmaking feels like the surest bet for Spielberg imaginable.

It’s a big month of moves outside of that top spot with former directing winners Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths) and Sam Mendes (Empire of Light) working their way up the chart alongside Sarah Polley (Women Talking), with 2022 Cannes Best Director winner Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) and 2022 Cannes Palme d’Or winner Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) angling for a spot in the top 5.

Rian Johnson makes his debut this month with Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and two previous directing winners – Damien Chazelle (Babylon) and James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water) take a tumble but only because have either been seen or have a strong festival presence that could them a leg up. But, everything can change quickly if expectations are higher than the end result so they’re far from out.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↑
(Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon – Apple Original Films)
3. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (MGM/UAR) ↑
4. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
5. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↓

6. The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
7. Park Chan-wook – Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↑
8. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↑
9. Florian Zeller – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics) ↑
10. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) ↑
11. Darren Aronofsky – The Whale (A24) ↓
12. Maria Schrader – She Said (Universal Pictures) ↑
13. Hirozaku Kore-eda – Broker (NEON)
14. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix)
15. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑
16. Chinonye Chukwu – Till (MGM/UAR) ↑
17. Rian Johnson – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) ♦
18. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros)
19. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) ↓
20. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Walt Disney/Marvel Studios) ↑

Other contenders (alphabetical)

• Edward Berger – All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
• David O. Russell – Amsterdam (20th Century Studios)
• James Gray – Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
• Andrew Dominick – Blonde (Netflix)
• Luca Guadagnino – Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
• Maggie Betts – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Benjamin Millepied – Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Lisa Neugerbauer – Causeway (Apple Original Films)
• Stephen Williams – Chevalier (Searchlight Pictures)
• Lukas Dhont – Close (A24)
• Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling (Warner Bros)
• Garth Davis – Foe (Amazon Studios)
• Tobias Lindholm – The Good Nurse (Netflix)
• Peter Farrelly – The Greatest Beer Run Ever (Apple Original Films)
• Audrey Diwan – Happening (IFC Films) ↓
• Kasi Lemmons – I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Columbia/TriStar)
• David Fincher – The Killer (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Laure de Clermont-Tonnerre – Lady Chatterley’s Lover (Netflix)
• Oliver Hermanus – Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Stephen Frears – The Lost King (IFC Films)
• Mark Mylod – The Menu (Searchlight Pictures)
• Scott Cooper – The Pale Blue Eye (Netflix)
• Michael Grandage – My Policeman (Amazon Studios)
• Rodrigo García – Raymond & Ray (Apple Original Films)
• George C. Wolfe – Rustin (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• John Ridley – Shirley (Netflix) – 2022 or 2023?
• Kelly Reichardt – Showing Up (A24)
• Sally El-Hossaini – The Swimmers (Netflix)
• Michael Showalter – Spoiler Alert (Focus Features)
• Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR)
• Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
• Sebastián Lelio – The Wonder (Netflix)