2024 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR (December)

With Critics Choice and the Golden Globe nominations in as well as a deluge of critics’ nominations and wins, we have a real race on our hands.

Eight films earned kudos from both groups and four directors have aligned. Oppenheimer and Barbie are still unmovable forces but Best Picture critics’ wins have been more spread out than usual with seven of my predicted top 10 having earned at least one. Only Poor Things, Maestro and Anatomy of a Fall have yet to secure one.

The Color Purple was a shocking miss at the Golden Globes, of all places, but showed up at CCA after missing both AFI and NBR top 10 lists. The Christmas Day release has gotten great pre-screening buzz and has had a killer press tour so far so why did it miss so much already?

Directing is a little tighter where we have wins for Christopher Nolan, Greta Gerwig, Jonathan Glazer and Martin Scorsese so far but only Glazer failed to grab a spot at either CCA or GG, surprisingly. Celine Song and Bradley Cooper earned Globe nominations for their work in the new-this-year field of six while Alexander Payne was CCA-nominated.

While it feels safe to have the massively budgeted Oppenheimer, Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon at or near the top, the low-to-midrange indies Past Lives, American Fiction and The Holdovers are making some noise and the choice by France to not submit Anatomy of a Fall could work out heavily in its favor in the top category. It’s already dominated the International Feature Film wins from critics’, who are sending that reminder daily.

We won’t have Producers Guild or Directors Guild nominations for another month, right in between the Golden Globe Awards on January 7 and the Critics Choice Awards on January 14.

Nominations for the Golden Globes will be announced on December 11, 2023 and the awards ceremony will be held on Sunday, January 7, 2024. The Directors Guild of America (DGA) will announce their nominations on January 10, 2024 and hold their awards ceremony on February 10. Oscar nominations will be announced on January 23 and the 96th Academy Awards will be held on March 10.

Here are my 2024 Oscar Predictions in Best Picture and Best Director for December 2023.

BEST PICTURE

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
2. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
3. Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
4. Maestro (Netflix) – CCA, GG
5. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
6. American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion) – CCA, GG
7. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA, GG
8. Past Lives (A24) – CCA, GG
9. The Zone of Interest (A24) – GG
10. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – GG

Next up: Air (Amazon Studios) – GG; The Color Purple (Warner Bros) – CCA; May December (Netflix) – GG; Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – CCA; Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)

Other contenders:

• All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
• Asteroid City (Focus Features)
• The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
• The Boys in the Boat (Amazon MGM)
• Ferrari (NEON)
• The Iron Claw (A24)
• Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
• NYAD (Netflix)
• Origin (NEON)
• Priscilla (A24)
• Rustin (Netflix)
• Society of the Snow (Netflix)
• The Taste of Things (IFC Films)
• A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) – CCA, GG
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films) – CCA, GG
3. Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) – CCA, GG
4. Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros) – CCA, GG
5. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)
6. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) – GG
7. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features) – CCA
8. Celine Song – Past Lives (A24) – GG
9. Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
10. Cord Jefferson – American Fiction (Amazon MGM/Orion)

Next up: Andrew Haigh – All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures); Hayao Miyazaki – The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS); Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple (Warner Bros); Todd Haynes – May December (Netflix); Emerald Fennell – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)

Other contenders:

• Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios)
• Wes Anderson – Asteroid City (Focus Features)
• George Clooney – The Boys in the Boat (Amazon MGM)
• Michael Mann – Ferrari (NEON)
• Sean Durkin – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Ridley Scott – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
• Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi – NYAD (Netflix)
• Sofia Coppola – Priscilla (A24)
• George C. Wolfe – Rustin (Netflix)
• J.A. Bayona – Society of the Snow (Netflix)
• Joaquim Dos Santos/Kemp Powers/Justin K. Thompson – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)
• Trần Anh Hùng – The Taste of Things (IFC Films)
• A.V. Rockwell – A Thousand and One (Focus Features)