Academy Award winner Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) might be finding himself back in the Oscar race with Thirteen Lives (trailer), one of a few narrative versions of the story of the young boys from Thailand who were trapped in a flooding underground cave with their soccer coach in a story that captured the world’s attention. Its one-week July qualifying release from Amazon/MGM/UAR then set to premiere on Prime Video on August 5 is certainly a risky one, but seems to be taking a page from last season’s Oscar winner CODA, also an August release that didn’t depend on fall festivals to buoy its prospects.
As mentioned in Best Actress and Supporting Actor, Searchlight Pictures has moved Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos to 2023 so he is dropped from this season’s race. On that front, after some confusion about the release of Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale, starring Brendan Fraser, A24 confirmed with me this morning that the film will indeed be a 2022 release with a release date TBA, keeping Aronofsky in the race. Other films, like Empire of Light from Sam Mendes (also Searchlight) and Ridley Scott’s Napoleon (from Apple), are still to be announced as releases this year both directors have proven fast post-production turnarounds, albeit with varying degrees of awards success.
Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Director for June 2022.
Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦
1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films)
3. Damien Chazelle – Babylon (Paramount Pictures)
4. Sarah Polley – Women Talking (MGM/UAR)
5. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix)
6. The Daniels – Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
7. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures) ↑ – 2022 or 2023?
8. Darren Aronofsky – The Whale (A24) ↑
9. James Cameron – Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) ↑
10. Ron Howard – Thirteen Lives (MGM/UAR) ↑
11. Florian Zeller – The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
12. Todd Field – TÁR (Focus Features) ↑
13. Hirozaku Kore-eda – Broker (NEON) ↑
14. Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↓
15. Ridley Scott – Napoleon (Apple Original Films) – 2022 or 2023?
16. Noah Baumbach – White Noise (Netflix) ↑
17. Maria Schrader – She Said (Universal Pictures)
18. Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
19. John Ridley – Shirley (Netflix) ↑
20. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis (Warner Bros) ↑
Other contenders (alphabetical):
Without distribution
Photo: Vince Valitutti / Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures
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