2023 Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE (December)

As we close out the calendar year, it’s really just the beginning of the Oscar race. We have Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe nominations and a dozen or so critics’ awards from New York and Los Angeles to regional U.S. and more. We have AFI and NBR top 10 lists.

But even as we lull ourselves into the holiday and voters stare at their pile of screeners (we are smack in the middle of Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild nomination voting) what we are starting to have at this stage is a building consensus. Five films have hit AFI, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, Hollywood Critics Association and NBR lists with several nabbing four or three. As longer standing precursors, CCA and GG are lined up 9/10. Inevitably, the Producers Guild feature film nominations on January 12, 2023 will likely mirror one of these lists or most assuredly again, be nine out of ten, then BAFTA noms a week later on the 19th.

The Oscar shortlists, like an early Christmas present, gave us some fun surprises and definitely some equally surprising snubs. What we do with that information, or not do, is what matters. Germany’s International Feature Film Oscar submission All Quiet on the Western Front came out of the gates running with five mentions on the shortlists: IFF, Score, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound and Visual Effects. The film was already a contender in most of those categories but after yesterday’s showing, we could see it near the Best Picture top 10 or as this year’s ‘international’ director pick.

With that in mind, last year No Time to Die hit every shortlist it could have and many thought that meant Daniel Craig’s Bond farewell was primed for a Best Picture nomination (especially since 2012’s Skyfall had seemed to get so close). That, of course, didn’t happen. It did earn three nominations and a win for song for fell short otherwise.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever also landed five mentions, the exact same ones the original film did plus the addition of the sound category, which was not a part of the shortlist announcement for 2018 films. Incidentally, when Oscar nominations were announced, Black Panther was nominated for both Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. As we know, Sound is now once again merged back into a single Oscar category. The first film got into Best Picture, among its seven nominations, and won three: score, costumes and production design, the latter two history-making wins. But can this one make this year’s Best Picture cut in a season where Avatar and Top Gun sequels have already hit the early major precursors?

Looking at the critics’ leaderboard, Everything Everywhere All At Once is the clear frontrunner with 13 wins (as of this writing) and The Banshees of Inisherin next. TÁR, however, took LAFCA (in a tie with EEAAO) and NYFCC wins. A top 5 contender or a sign of the film being just a coastal fave?

The Leaderboard:

• The Banshees of Inisherin (BOFCA, CFCA, NYFCO, PCC, PFCC)
• Everything Everywhere All At Once (AFCC, DFWFCA, Gotham, IFJA, LAFCA, LVFCS, NTFCA, OAFFC, PFCS, SEFCA, StLFCA, UFCA, WAFCA)
• Return to Seoul (BSFC)
• TÁR (LAFCA, NYFCC)
• Top Gun: Maverick (NBR)
• The Woman King (AAFCA)

Here are my 2023 Oscar predictions in Best Picture for December.

Green – moves up ↑ Red – moves down ↓ Blue – new entry ♦

1. Everything Everywhere All At Once (A24) ↑ – CCA, GG  
2. The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures) ↑ – CCA, GG  
3. The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures) ↓ – CCA, GG  
4. Women Talking (UAR/Orion Pictures) – CCA
5. Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures) ↑ – CCA, GG  
6. Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios) ↑ – CCA, GG  
7. TÁR (Focus Features) ↓ – CCA, GG  
8. Elvis (Warner Bros) ↓ – CCA, GG  
9. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) – CCA, GG  
10. Babylon (Paramount Pictures) ↑ – CCA, GG  

11. Triangle of Sadness (NEON) ↓ – GG  
12. All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix) ↑
13. The Woman King (Sony/TriStar Pictures)
14. The Whale (A24) ↓
15. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Marvel Studios) ↑
16. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix) ↓
17. RRR (Variance Films) ↑
18. She Said (Universal Pictures) ↑
19. Decision to Leave (MUBI) ↓
20. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Netflix) ↓

Other contenders (alphabetical)

Aftersun (A24)
Armageddon Time (Focus Features)
Bones and All (MGM/UAR)
Broker (NEON)
Close (A24)
Causeway (Apple Original Films)
Devotion (Sony Pictures)
Emancipation (Apple Original Films)
Empire of Light (Searchlight Pictures)
Living (Sony Pictures Classics)
The Son (Sony Pictures Classics)
Till (UAR/Orion Pictures) ↓
White Noise (Netflix)