2024 Oscar Predictions: ADAPTED SCREENPLAY and ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY (September)

After weeks of debate and discussion among awards fans and pundits, Warner Bros officially announced it will run the Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach-penned Barbie in Original Screenplay.

The choice caused a lot of conversation about how a film and screenplay full of existing characters and an established IP (not to mention dozens of animated films) could qualify – and the Academy could of course decide otherwise and deem it adapted – but between The Lego Movie (campaigned in original but went nowhere) and Toy Story (Oscar-nominated in original) there are examples of how and why it could not only stay here but gain a foothold to win, even in a category that is quite stacked. Some have made comparisons to Whiplash and Moonlight being campaigned in original and moved to adapted by the Academy but I’m not buying it; those are apples to oranges comparisons that don’t really make much sense as examples here. I get the need to reach for something but those aren’t it.

Adapted Screenplay, on the other hand, feels a bit bleak (and if the Academy decides Barbie belongs here, it’ll get in) but still has top tier, locked in contenders like Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things. The Zone of Interest, which is very, very loosely adapted from Martin Amis’s 2014, might actually find itself getting moved to original (an interesting turn of events that would be) but if not, should be a very solid top 5 player here. Where Dune Part Two was a likely/possible nominee here it is no more as it’s one of the two major films yanked from 2023 and moved to next year (the other being Challengers). But that makes room for the brand new TIFF People’s Choice Award winner American Fiction, based on the novel “Erasure” by Percival Everett. The broad satire should be catnip to the writing branch with its arch comedy and sentimental warmth overlap. Also finding a possible window of opportunity are the big swing screenplays for All of Us Strangers and Origin, both coming from books wildly different than their film adaptations.

Pricy Netflix TIFF pickups Woman of the Hour ($11M) and Hit Man ($20M) look like they’re going to be 2024 releases – the streamer has a surplus of contenders in both categories as it is – so I won’t place them here for now.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay for September 2023.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (-)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (-)
4. The Zone of Interest (A24) (-)
5. American Fiction (MGM/Orion) (▲)
6. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) (▲)
7. Priscilla (A24) (▼)
8. Origin (NEON) (▲)
9. The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)
10. Nyad (Netflix) (-)

Next up: Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate), The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios), Dumb Money (Sony Pictures) (▲), Ferrari (NEON), The Killer (Netflix) (▼), Society of the Snow (Netflix) (▼), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases: BlackBerry (IFC Films), The Boys in the Boat (MGM), Carmen (Sony Pictures Classics), Earth Mama (A24), Eileen (NEON), Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics), Foe (Amazon Studios), Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM), Wonka (Warner Bros)

Without U.S. distribution: Lee (TBD)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Barbie (Warner Bros) (-)
2. The Holdovers (Focus Features) (-)
3. Past Lives (A24) (-)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) (▲)
5. Maestro (Netflix) (▲)
6. Saltburn (Amazon Studios) (▼)
7. Air (Amazon Studios) (▲)
8. May December (Netflix) (▼)
9. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) (▲)
10. Fair Play (Netflix) (▼)

Next up: Asteroid City (Focus Features), The Iron Claw (A24) (▼), Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures), Rustin (Netflix), Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)

Other contenders or possible 2024 releases: Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), The Burial (Amazon Studios), Cassandro (Amazon Studios), La Chimera (NEON), Fingernails (Apple Original Films), Hitman (Netflix), A Little Prayer (Sony Pictures Classics), The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics), A Thousand and One (Focus Features)

Without U.S. distribution: One Life (TBD)