Legacy and longevity are always interesting parts of talking about the Oscars. Who’s never been nominated, who’s been nominated multiple times with no wins. Last season just saw Judd Hirsch break the all-time record for most time between Oscar nominations with his Supporting Actor nod for The Fabelmans coming 42 years after his first, for 1980’s Ordinary People, besting Henry Fonda’s record of 41 years.
This season brings another record into play, and kind of a big one in terms of legendary actors with careers full of nominations and wins. If Robert De Niro is nominated for Killers of the Flower Moon (and as early as it is, it certainly seems very possible), he will best Katharine Hepburn as the overall record holder for longest time span between first and most recent/last acting nominations. Hepburn ended her record-holding Oscar career with 48 years between her first and last nomination (1933’s Morning Glory to 1981’s On Golden Pond, her 4th Best Actress win), and Al Pacino is the current male actor record holder at 47 years (1972’s The Godfather and up to 2019’s The Irishman, which put him over De Niro). De Niro, whose last acting nomination was for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook (he also has a Best Picture nomination for The Irishman), has a chance to take back that crown as he will be 49 years (beginning with 1974’s The Godfather Part II) between his first and most recent nominations.
As I mentioned in my Supporting Actress predictions, Netflix’s The Piano Lesson had just begun production as the WGA strike was fully underway – and a potential SAG strike looming – it’s unclear whether they would be able to turn around the film for a 2023 release but it feels very unlikely.
Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actor for June 2023.
Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Colman Domingo – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
Willem Dafoe – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
John Magaro – Past Lives (A24)
Charles Melton – May December (Netflix)
Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Ryan Gosling – Barbie (Warner Bros) – lead or supporting?
Richard E. Grant – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
Matt Bomer – Maestro (Netflix)
Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry (IFC Films)
Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases:
Christopher Abbott – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Ben Affleck – Air (Amazon Studios)
Riz Ahmed – Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
Jason Bateman – Air (Amazon Studios)
Jamie Bell – Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
Gael García Bernal – Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios)
Demián Bichir – Without Blood (Freemantle)
Esteban Bigliardi – Society of the Snow (Netflix)
Austin Butler – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
Raul Castillo – Cassandro (Amazon Studios)
Josh Charles – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
Matt Damon – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Paul Dano – Spaceman (Netflix)
Harris Dickinson – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
Harris Dickinson – The Iron Claw (A24)
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
Joel Edgerton – The Boys in the Boat (MGM)
Jacob Elordi – Priscilla (A24)
Jacob Elordi – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
Chris Evans – Pain Hustlers (Netflix)
Mike Faist – Challengers (MGM)
Ben Foster – Long Day’s Journey Into Night (MGM)
Noah Galvin – Theater Camp (Searchlight Pictures)
Matthew Goode – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
Louis Gossett Jr. – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
Stephen Graham – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
Tom Hardy – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
Stephen McKinley Henderson – Civil War (A24)
Lucas Hedges – Shirley (Netflix)
Terrence Howard – Shirley (Netflix)
Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
Bill Irwin – Rustin (Netflix)
Tommy Lee Jones – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
Keegan-Michael Key – Wonka (Warner Bros)
Jude Law – Firebrand (MGM)
Gabriel Leone – Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
Anders Danielsen Lie – Mothers Instinct (NEON)
Eddie Marsan – Back to Black (Focus Features)
James McAvoy – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
Holt McCallany – The Iron Claw (A24)
Matthew McFayden – Holland, Michigan (Amazon Studios)
Paul Mescal – Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
Wagner Moura – Civil War (A24)
Jack O’Connell – Back to Black (Focus Features)
Jack O’Connell – Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
Josh O’Connor – Challengers (MGM)
Pedro Pascal – Drive-Away Dolls (Focus Features)
Adam Pearson – A Different Man (A24)
Aaron Pierre – Foe (Amazon Studios)
Tahar Rahim – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
Seth Rogen – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Michael Shannon – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
Sebastian Stan – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
Omar Sy – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
Glynn Turman – Rustin (Netflix)
Enzo Vogrincic – Society of the Snow (Netflix)
Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw (A24)
Ramy Youssef – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
Without U.S. distribution: Paul Bettany – The Collaboration (TBD), Daniel Brühl – The Collaboration (TBD), Benedict Cumberbatch – The End We Start From (TBD), Willem Dafoe – Gonzo Girl (TBD), Chiwetel Ejiofor – Rob Peace (TBD), Paapa Essiedu – The Outrun (TBD), John Lithgow – Conclave (TBD), Jeremy Pope – The Collaboration (TBD), Jonathan Pryce – One Life (TBD), Andy Samberg – Lee (TBD), Alexander Skarsgård – Lee (TBD), Timothy Spall – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Stanley Tucci – Conclave (TBD)
Erik Anderson is the founder/owner and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch and has always loved all things Oscar, having watched the Academy Awards since he was in single digits; making lists, rankings and predictions throughout the show. This led him down the path to obsessing about awards. Much later, he found himself in film school and the film forums of GoldDerby, and then migrated over to the former Oscarwatch (now AwardsDaily), before breaking off to create AwardsWatch in 2013.
He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic, accredited by the Cannes Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, Toronto International Film Festival and more, is a member of the International Cinephile Society (ICS), The Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics (GALECA), Hollywood Critics Association (HCA) and the International Press Academy. Among his many achieved goals with AwardsWatch, he has given a platform to underrepresented writers and critics and supplied them with access to film festivals and the industry and calls the Bay Area his home where he lives with his husband and son.