2024 Oscar Predictions: SUPPORTING ACTRESS (May)

As mentioned in this month’s Supporting Actor piece yesterday, the awards history for The Color Purple, the 1985 film, 2005 Broadway musical and its subsequent 2015 revival, all based on the 1982 novel of the same name by Alice Walker, we could have some stiff internal competition in supporting actress as well.

For the 1985 film (directed by Steven Spielberg), both Margaret Avery (Shug) and Oprah Winfrey (Sofia) were Supporting Actress Oscar-nominated and both lost to Anjelica Huston in Prizzi’s Honor. For the original musical, both roles were Tony-nominated for Featured Actress in a Musical (Elizabeth Withers-Mendez and Felicia P. Fields, respectively) and both lost to Beth Leavel for The Drowsy Chaperone. Jump to the revival and only the role of Sophia earns a nomination, for Danielle Brooks, who also happens to be the only person from either iteration of the musical to play their role in the new feature film musical directed by Black is King’s Blitz Bazawule. Oscar and Emmy nominee Taraji P. Henson plays Shug and while it’s technically the bigger, juicier role, Brooks will be a formidable rival in the race.

But, does any of that matter? Yes and no. Tony-nominated and Tony-winning roles and performances give us some foundational basis for early predictions, that part’s easy. We knew that Viola Davis had an Oscar-winning role in the feature film version of Fences because she was a Tony winner for the play version (albeit in a different category, which caused us so much drama). It’s obviously too early to really talk about winners but it should be mentioned that the only role to win a major award from any version of The Color Purple is the lead, Celie, where both LaChanze and Cynthia Erivo triumphed with the Tonys. Whoopi Goldberg, in her film debut, lost the Oscar to 8-time nominee Geraldine Page.

Here are my 2024 Oscar predictions in Supporting Actress for May 2023.

1. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) – lead or supporting?
2. Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
3. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
4. Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
5. Viola Davis – Air (Amazon Studios)
6. Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
7. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
8. Rosamund Pike – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
9. Tilda Swinton – The Killer (Netflix)
10. Julianne Moore – May December (TBD)

Other contenders and/or possible 2024 releases:

• Uzo Aduba – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• Jodi Balfour – Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Kathy Burke – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Tantoo Cardinal – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
• Gemma Chan – The Actor (NEON)
• Jessica Chastain – Mother’s Instinct (NEON) – lead or supporting?
• Olivia Colman – Wonka (Warner Bros)
• Jodie Comer – The Bikeriders (20th Century Studios)
• Juliet Cowan – Back to Black (Focus Features)
• Penélope Cruz – Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
• Anna Diop – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)
• Aunjanue Ellis – The Nickel Boys (MGM)
• Aunjanue Ellis – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures) – lead or supporting?
• Beanie Feldstein – Drive-Away Dolls (Searchlight Pictures)
• America Ferrera – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• America Ferrera – Barbie (Warner Bros)
• Jodie Foster – Nyad (Netflix)
• Claire Foy – Strangers (Searchlight Pictures)
• Anne Hathaway – Eileen (NEON)
• Anne Hathaway – Mother’s Instinct (NEON) – lead or supporting?
• Sally Hawkins – Wonka (Warner Bros)
• Stephanie Hsu – Joy Ride (Lionsgate)
• Lily James – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Kaimana – Next Goal Wins (Searchlight Pictures)
• Erin Kellyman – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
• Sanaa Lathan – The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat (Searchlight Pictures)
• Patti LuPone – Beau Is Afraid (A24)
• Lashana Lynch – Marley (Paramount Pictures)
• Lesley Manville – Back to Black (Focus Features)
• Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Lionsgate)
• Melissa McCarthy – The Little Mermaid (Walt Disney)
• Audra McDonald – Rustin (Netflix)
• Carey Mulligan – Maestro (Netflix) – lead or supporting?
• Carey Mulligan – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
• Carey Mulligan – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Annie Murphy – Fingernails (Apple Original Films)
• Niousha Noor – The Persian Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Catherine O’Hara – Pain Hustlers (Netflix)
• Allison Oliver – Saltburn (Amazon Studios)
• Carrie Preston – The Holdovers (Focus Features)
• CCH Pounder – Rustin (Netflix)
• Florence Pugh – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
• Margaret Qualley – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
• Renate Reinsve – A Different Man (A24)
• Isabella Rossellini – La Chimera (NEON)
• Isabella Rossellini – Spaceman (Netflix)
• Sarah Silverman – Maestro (Netflix)
• Jurnee Smollett – The Burial (Amazon Studios)
• Hayley Squires – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
• Kristen Stewart – Love Lies Bleeding (A24)
• Maura Tierney – The Iron Claw (A24)
• Geraldine Viswanathan – Drive-Away Dolls (Searchlight Pictures)
• Shailene Woodley – Dumb Money (Sony Pictures)
• Shailene Woodley – Ferrari (STX Entertainment)
• Alfre Woodward – The Book of Clarence (Sony Pictures)

Without U.S. distribution: Patricia Arquette – Gonzo Girl (TBD), Eileen Atkins – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Melissa Barrera – The Collaboration (TBD), Mary J. Blige – Rob Peace (TBD), Helena Bonham Carter – One Life (TBD), Connie Britton – Winner (TBD), Jessie Buckley – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Marion Cotillard – Lee (TBD), Elsie Fisher – Memory (TBD), Gemma Jones – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Deborah Mailman – The New Boy (TBD) – Cannes, Maria Mashkova – Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Viktoria Miroshnichenko – Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (TBD), Kathryn Newton – Winner (TBD), Lena Olin – One Life (TBD), Andrea Riseborough – Lee (TBD), Isabella Rossellini – Conclave (TBD), Joanna Scanlan – Wicked Little Letters (TBD), Katherine Waterston – The End We Start From (TBD), Merritt Wever – Memory (TBD)